The value of communities envisioning their future through local scale foresight:

up scalable foresight-based land-use planning

Bayuni Shantiko (CoLUPSIA)

Background• Why?: Kapuas Hulu district is among the richest upstream forest resources,

while local government promotes large scale land-based investment e.g. Palm oil, mining, etc. • Need stakeholders collaboration and building common vision on the

possible future of development• By Whom?: CoLUPSIA (CIRAD, CIFOR, Telapak, Huma, Riak Bumi)• Where?: Kapuas Hulu district(218,804 inhabitants, 31,000km2), West

Kalimantan Province, Indonesia• How long?: Series of workshop (May-July 2011); public consultation

(2012); and will continue in 2013• Cost and funding: approx US$20,000; EU funded project

Question: What could happen possibly with the development of Kapuas Hulu in 20 years?

Qualitative approach: scenario building with stakeholders inputs

I suggest that you put a here also a picture of a workshop in a village if you have some, or a picture of activities in a village

PARTICIPATORY PROSPECTIVE ANALYSIS (PPA) PROCESS FLOW

Facilitator team training

Socialization: concept, method

Research: Biophysic, Socio economy, hydrology

GOVT

COM’TY

UNIV

Pv Sector

SCENARIOS

VILLAGE CONSULTATION

DISTRICT CONSULTATION

AGREED VISION

IMPLEMENTATION

PARTICIPATORY MONITORING AND EVALUATION

Methodology

Analysis

50 internal variables

Key drivers: Government policy, use of technology, customary law and wisdom, mindset, participation, education and skills

Desirable scenarios: Government, communities and other

SHs work together Aligned vision and policies to achieve

‘society’s welfare’ Stakeholders change their current

behaviour

Undesirable scenarios: Sc. 2,3,4 already happening Sc. 2 environmental destruction Scenario 3&4 recklessness in

investment decision: no benefit to community

From Foresight… to Action

Foresight work invites stakeholders in Kapuas Hulu to share the same vision and work together to make it happen

Stakeholders proposal for action plan (May 2012)

Tourism agency is interested in replicating the prospective method for ecotourism

CoLUPSIA will continue facilitating stakeholders to strengthen commitment and develop collective action for balanced land-use with conservation and development

Strong top leader’s commitment is a must, otherwise any scenario will unlikely to be implemented

From local to global: tenure insecurity is still an issueo While tenure security is a key driver of change and

important variable for both development and conservation activities,

o more research are needed to incorporate variables such as institutional arrangement, customary law, policies, participation etc.

Land use for development or conservationAnd

??

A Call to Action

Thank you

Muchas gracias