Muhammad Aziz
Department of Mechanical and Biofunctional Systems, Institute of Industrial ScienceThe University of Tokyo
Future scenario toward sustainable and greenenergy systems: Integration of innovative
technologies
4thAnnual Applied Science and Engineering Conference (AASEC) 2019Denpasar, Indonesia
April 24, 2019
Introduction
Muhammad Aziz, Dr. Eng.Associate ProfessorInstitute of Industrial Science, The University of Tokyo
Managing Director, Ikatan Ilmuwan Indonesia Internasional, Asia Timur
Scopus ID : 56436934500ORCID : 0000-0003-2433-8500Researcher ID : B-9248-2015Homepage : aes.ssr.titech.ac.jp/azizh-index : 25 (google scholar), 24 (Scopus)Publication : Journals : 93, Books and Chapters: 18
Research AreasEnergy systems, Process design, Power generation, Carbon capture and storage,Hydrogen production, Renewable Energy, Energy conservation, Energy and exergyanalysis, Exergy recovery, Electric vehicle, Batteries, Smart grid
Education1. Dept. Electrical Engineering, Bandung Institute of Technology, 1998-19992. Osaka University (formerly Osaka University of Foreign Studies) 1999 - 20003. Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, Kyushu University (B.Eng) 2000 - 20044. Intelligent Machinery and Systems Engineering, Kyushu University (M. Eng.) 2004 –2006 and Dr. Eng. 2006-2008
Industry 4.0 and Society 5.0
3
Elimination of 5 walls:1. The wall of the Ministries and Agencies2. The wall of the legal system3. The wall of technologies4. The wall of human resources5. The wall of social acceptance
Industry 4.01. Internet of Things2. Autonomous robots3. Cloud Computing4. Big Data/Analytics5. Additive Manufacturing6. System Integration7. Augmented Reality8. Simulation9. Cybersecurity
Toward realization of Society 5.0
4
Energy from Past to Future
5
Source: IIASA, 2012: The Global Energy Assessment: Toward aSustainable Energy Future
Energy Sustainability
6
Resiliency
Energy Sustainability: Energy Triangle
7
Environmental SustainabilityClimate and environment
Energy SecuritySecurity of supply
Energy qualityDiversificationAccessibility
Energy EquityCompetitiveness
OpportunityEconomic growth
Energy Sector: a Key Contributor toGlobal Warming
8
Sources: IEA, 2016: CO2 emissions from fuel combustionMIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, 2016: Food, Water, Energy, Climate
Outlook: Perspectives from 2016
Estimated shares of global anthropogenic GHG Current Greenhouse Gas Concentrations
Limited Remaining Carbon Budget
9
Our remaining carbon budget to 2100 isapproximately 900 Gt CO2
Source: Energy Transitions Commission 2017: The future of fossil fuels: How to steerfossil fuel use in a transition to a low-carbon energy system
Energy Transition
10
Source: Energy Transitions Commission 2017: Better Energy, Greater Prosperity,Achievable pathways to low-carbon energy systems
Transition strategies need to be pursued simultaneously toachieve a well below 2 °C scenario
(WB2C Scenario, annual emission, 2040; business as usual 47 Gt-CO2
with BB2C 2040 20 Gt-CO2)
Decarbonization of power combined withextended electrification
Decarbonization of activities which cannot becost-effectively electrified
Acceleration in the pace of energy productivityimprovement to 3% per annum
Optimization of fossil fuels use within overallcarbon budget constraints
13 Gt-CO2(48%)
4 Gt-CO2(15%)
8 Gt-CO2(30%)
2 Gt-CO2(7%)
Energy Transition in History
• 19th Century: Natural energy to coal (following theindustrial revolution)
• 20th Century: The century of petroleum (due to itseconomy, convenience, supply possibility, andtechnology development)
• 70’s : Oil crisis and the strategies to tackle it
• 21st Century: Next generation
– Environmental concern, stable and secured energy supply
– Renewable energy
– Other new resources
11
5 Pillars for Energy Sustainability
12
Renewability of energy resources
Efficiency in energy conversion, distribution, use
Lowering of environmental impact
Increasing the energy accessibility
Tailor making of energy systems on local social-economic-environmental conditions
Orecchini F. Energy Sustainability pillars. Int J Hydrogen Energy 36 (2011) 7748-49
Framework of Energy Sustainability
• Energy efficiency• Integration of low carbon
technologies and REsShortterm
• Integration of low carbon technologies and REs forelectricity and hydrogen
• Zero emission target
Midterm
• Zero consumption and zerowaste model (closed, localproduction – local consumption)
Longterm
13
Orecchini F. Energy Sustainability pillars. Int J Hydrogen Energy 36 (2011) 7748-49
Key Technologies and Smart Systems
14
Adoption of renewable energy
15
Global average cost of electricity(CSP, PV, onshore and offshore winds, 2010-2020)
Unsubsidized Levelized Cost of Energy Comparison
16
Source: Lazard
Smart Energy Systems
17
An approach in which smart electricity, thermal and gas grids are combined with storagetechnologies and coordinated to identify synergies between them in order to achieve an
optimal solution for each individual sector as well as for the overall energy system
Lund H, Ostergaard PA, Connolly D, Mathiesen BV. Smart energy and smart energy systems. Energy 137 (2017) 556-565
Smart electricity gridsConnects flexible electricity demands such as heat pumps and electricvehicles to the intermittent renewable resources such as wind and solar power
Smart thermal gridsconnect the electricity and heating sectors. This enables the utilization ofthermal storage for creating additional flexibility and the recycling of heatlosses in the energy system
Smart gas gridconnect the electricity, heating, and transport sectors. This enables theutilization of gas storage for creating additional flexibility. If the gas is refined toa liquid fuel, then liquid fuel storages can also be utilized
Smart Electricity Grid
Electricity network using digital and other advanced technologies to monitor and managethe transport of electricity from all generation sources.
18
Key Characteristics
• Uses information technologies toimprove how electricity travels frompower plants to consumers
• Allows consumers to interact withthe grid
• Integrates new and improvedtechnologies into the operation ofthe grid
• Self healing: grid detects, analyzes,responds,…
• Provides power quality to consumerand industry
• Accommodates demand responds,combined heat and power, wind, PV,and end-use efficiency
• Transform the power sector into asecure, adaptive, sustainable anddigitally
From Centralized to Distributed
19
Concept of Smart Electricity
20Source: Velankani Communications
Future Energy Forms: Electricity and Hydrogen
21
Integrated hydrogen in power and gas grids
22
H2 and its storage
Potential secondary energy source (cleanliness, high efficiency, high variety of productionand utilization)
Energy density by weight is high (33 kWh/kg), but by volume is very low (3 Wh/l)
Produced mainly from natural gas, oil reforming, coal gasification, water electrolysis
H2 production and utilization with NH3 storage
Possible H2 storages:Compressed H2, liquefied H2, liquid organic H2 carrier (LOHC),metal hydrides, NH3
Primaryenergy
sourcesStorage
Direct use
Conceptual Chart of a Hydrogen Supply Chain
24
Oil field/flaringgas, etc.
Brown coal,etc.
Electric powerfrom
renewableenergy
PipelinesHigh-pressurehydrogen gas
Fuel cell vehicles
Distributed power supply
Hydrogen refueling station
Hydrogen power generation
Hydrogen
Hydrogen
Hydrogen
Hydrogen
Hydrogen
Hydrogen
Liquid hydrogenOrganic hydride
ProductionProduction Storage and TransportationStorage and Transportation ConsumptionConsumption
Hydrogen Production Method
25
Fossil fuels(Petroleum, natural gas,
etc.)
Hydrogen is producedby reacting fossil fuelwith water vapor athigh temperature.
Byproduct hydrogen(Iron-making, chemistry,
etc.)
Hydrogen isgenerated as abyproduct during themanufacture ofsodium hydroxide orsimilar.
Hydrogen-richbyproduct gas isgenerated duringcoke refining, a steelmanufacturingprocess.
At present, these substances are already beingput to practical use.
At present, these substances are already beingput to practical use.
Unused energy
Hydrogen is producedfrom unused energysuch as low-grade coalslike lignite, crudepetroleum, andassociated gas in gasfields (in the future,technology for reducingCO2 emissions, such asCCS, will be utilized).
Unused byproducthydrogen will be utilized.
On a midterm basis,unused energy is
utilized.
On a midterm basis,unused energy is
utilized.
Renewable energy(Wind power, solar power,
etc.)
Hydrogen isproduced in such away that electricitygenerated byrenewable energy ispassed into water(electrolysis of water).
On a long-term basis,renewable energy is
utilized.
On a long-term basis,renewable energy is
utilized.
CO2-free H2 supply chain
Transport & StorageHydrogenProduction
Australia, etc.Low-cost hydrogen
productionfrom brown coal
Japan
SurplusRenewable
EnergyGasification,
Refining
BrownCoal
CO2 CaptureStorage (CCS)
Liquefaction& Storage
Utilization
CO free H2 2
LiquefiedHydrogenCarriers
LiquefiedHydrogenContainer
LiquefiedHydrogenStorageTanks
Power plantsCombinedcycle powerplants
Use in processesSemiconductor, solar cell productions
oil refining and desulfurization
Transportation equipmentRefueling stationFuel cell vehicles
Distributed power generationHydrogen gasturbines andengines, fuel cellsetc.
C JAXACO2
H2
Roadmap of H2 and fuel cell (Japan scenario)
【Process usage】
2014 2020
Tokyo Olympic/Paralympics as“Hydrogen Olympics”
Fast demand for H2
Diffusion of powergeneration and FCV
Fuel Cell Vehicles(FCV) Released
2025
Hydrogen production and utilization
28
Society 5 = Big Data + AI + 5G
29
Big Data is not ’just’ data, there are afew new considerations
Data atRest
Terabytes toexabytes of
existing datato process
Data inMotion
Streaming data,milliseconds to
seconds torespond
Data inMany Forms
Structured,unstructured,
text, multimedia
Data inDoubt
Uncertainty due todata inconsistency& incompleteness,
ambiguities,latency, deception,
modelapproximations
Data ofMany ValuesLarge range of data
values from free(data philanthropy
to high valuemonetization)
ValueVolume Velocity Variety Veracity Visibility
Data inthe OpenOpen data is
generally open toanyone. Which
raises issues ofprivacy.
Security andprovenance
Big Data Open Data
Big Data
30
Big data & analytics capabilities are required to address thesechallenges and opportunities
ERP/ MRP
SocialMedia
Location
CallCenters
FraudMgmt
OutageManagement
Regulatory
AssetManagement
Warranty /Quality
Telematics
Grid
Customers
New/EnhancedApplicationsAll Data
Information Integration & Governance
Systems Security StorageOn premise, Cloud, As a service
What actionshould Itake?
Decisionmanagement
Landing,ExplorationandArchivedata zone
EDW anddata mart
zone
Operationaldata zone
Real-time Data Processing & Analytics What ishappening?
Discovery andexploration
Why did ithappen?
Reporting andanalysis
What couldhappen?Predictive
analytics andmodeling
DeepAnalyticsdata zone What did
I learn, what’sbest?
Cognitive
SCADA
Smart Cities
31
A city that makes use of advanced information and communicationstechnologies (ICTs) to make the critical infrastructure components and
services of a city in a more aware, interactive, and efficient way
Aims of a Smart City
Provide a high quality of life
Ensure resource efficiencyand reduce costs
Result in sustainable growthand economic prosperity
Increase interactionbetween government andcitizens
Components in Smart Cities
32
Smart Home Energy Management
33
Energy storageAncillary serviceDemand response
Power generator
Prosumer
Electric Vehicle Integration
34
CEMS comes from the needs of harmonization between optimalenergy services, potential economy and environmental benefits.
CEMS manages the overall energy supply and demand across thecommunity.
It communicates the information with other systems both insideand outside of the community.
Multifunctioning EVs
35
Charge
The EV can be used for more than transportationservices (Energy Services)
Charge Discharge
Telephone TelephoneText Video
E-mail CameraMoney Vault
…….
iPhone
Concept of Vehicle Grid Integration
36
Demonstration Test Bed (1)
37
Secondary used batteriesEV (Mitsubishi iMiev)PCS (Power conditioning system)
Whole view
V2G Configuration
38
39
Energy Storages
40
Gen
erat
ion
T&D
End-
user
1 GW
100 MW
10 MW
1 MWFlywheel
Pow
er re
quirm
ent
100 kW
Microsecond Second Minute Hour Day Week Season Microsecond Second Minute Hour Day Week Season
10 kW
1 kW
PHS
CAES
Bat
tery
Supe
rcap
acito
rs
H2
Discharge duration
Large-scale windPV: grid support
Small-scalewind PV:Grid support
Offgridutility scale
Offgrid/ end-user
self cons.
Volta
ge re
gula
tion
Freq
uenc
y re
gula
tion
Blac
k st
art
Load
follo
win
gT&
D d
efer
ral
Arbi
trage
Inter-seasonal storage
Seasonalstorage
TechnologyApplication
Discharge duration
R&D Challenges for Batteries
41
(Source) NEDO, “Battery RM2013”, modified by IEEJ
Battery CurrentFeatures
Challenges Major Manufacturer
Li-ion200 Wh/L80 Wh/kg100 W/kg
cost reduction, enhanced safety,temperature character, .overcharge,recycle technology
GS Yuasa, Hitachi, HitachiMaxell, Mitsubishi HeavyIndustry, NEC, Panasonic(Sanyo), Toshiba etc.
LeadAcid40 Wh/L10 Wh/kg300 W/kg
discharge/charge efficiency, cycledegradation, corrosion,maintenance
GS Yuasa, Shin-kobeElectric Machinery etc.
NiMH84 Wh/L20 Wh/kg100 W/kg
cost reduction, discharge/chargeefficiency, energy efficiency,temperature character, rare earth
Kawasaki Heavy IndustryFDK(Fujitsu)Panasonic (Sanyo) etc.
NAS 160 Wh/Lenhanced safety, cost reduction,energy efficiency, recycletechnology
NGK Insulators
Redox Flow 8.5 Wh/Lenvironmental acceptability, costreduction, durability, energy density,resource restriction
Sumitomo Electric
CommonChallenges
cost reduction of power conditioner (inverter), long time backup (more than24hours).V2H/V2G, secondary use, recycle, residual performance, standardization,etc.
Carbon Capture, Storage, and Utilization
42
CO2 Capture Technology
43
Technological Achievements
CaptureUtilization StorageRequired characteristics for CCS Capacity and economic feasibility
Environmental benign fate
Long term stability
Basic Capturing Technologies
44A Al-Mamoori, A Krishnamurthy, AA Rownaghi, F Rezaei. Carbon capture and utilization update. Energy Technol 5 (2017) 834-849.
+ Cryogenic
CO2 Capture Stages
45
Carbon Storage Schemes
46
Mineral Carbonization
Mimics natural chemicaltransformation of CO2
MgO + CO2 MgCO3
Thermodynamically stableproduct & Exothermic reaction
Appropriate for long-termenvironmentally benign andunmonitored storage
Ocean storage
Biological fixation
Geologic storage
Mineral carbonation
Geological Storage
Carbon Utilization
47
What do we need…??
• Security– Strong focus on security must be balanced with other pillars– Security on energy storage to balance the supply and demand– Accurate potential calculation on domestic energy resources– Optimum spatial mapping in accordance with the resources
• Decarbonization– Clean conversion technology– Fuel carbon reduction, intermediate conversion
• Energy efficiency– Awareness on the “consumed energy amount”, impact to economy and environment– Incentives on introduction of energy-efficient technology/devices
• Renewable energy– Optimum adoption of RE (geothermal, biomass, PV, wind, etc.)– Accurate forecast technology– Domestic components manufacturing– Appropriate incentives planning (fiscal, licensing, FIT, etc.)– Larger RE adoption is not always greener: balancing and mapping
48
What do we need…??
• Open market and participation opportunity– Clear regulation and mechanism– Participation encouragement from private and residential sectors– Overall monitoring– Profit distribution
• Resiliency– Strong against the disaster– Self healing capability
• Social– Employment– Energy-saving awareness
• General policies– Clear and accurate grand scenario on energy sector– Prioritization on domestic human resource– Establishment of environmental conservations obligations– Ease of contract, transparency, guarantee– Assistance in fiscal risks
49
What we need for the country…..
• Integrated and smarter system
• Diversification of energy sources, with geothermal,hydro and biomass as the main
• Low environmental impact technologies
• Clear and sustainable policies
• Open and transparent market for higher participation
• Local-production and local-consumption
• Domestic technology transfer and creation
50
51
Muhammad Aziz, Dr. Eng.Assoc. Professor
Institute of Industrial Science,The University of Tokyo
E-mail : [email protected] : +81-3-5452-6196
http://epi.iis.u-tokyo.ac.jp
Energy in Indonesia
52
Indonesia Energy Conditions
53
Electricity consumption per capita
Electrification ratio
• Low energy consumption per capita
• Significant increase in the future
• Low electrification
Significant Increase of GDP and EnergyDemand
54
• Significant increase of demand in thefuture
• Strong impact on the global energymarket and its worries
GDP and electricity demand forecast
Electricity demand
Pratama et al. Multi-objective optimization of a multiregional electricity system inan archipelagic state: The role of renewable energy in energy system sustainability.Renew Sustain Energy Rev 77 (2017) 423-39
Regional Renewable Energy Potential
55
Hydro-LS Hydro-SS Geothermal Biomass Wind PV CSP Total
Sumatra 4032.4 40.0 13,553.0 18,138.3 929.4 35,149.7 0.0 72,259.4
Jamali 4659.5 270.0 10,013.0 10,616.8 2450.6 79,201.3 0.0 108,309.6
Kalimantan 366.0 9.0 145.0 6024.9 388.8 9726.3 0.0 16,834.2
Sulawesi 3136.8 142.0 2939.0 2086.0 1759.4 10,217.9 0.0 21,069.7
Maluku and NT 167.5 26.0 2488.0 729.6 3253.6 6722.4 2774.5 17,620.0
Papua 49.0 13.0 75.0 162.2 218.2 4300.9 0.0 4916.1
Pratama et al. Multi-objective optimization of a multiregional electricity system in an archipelagic state: The role of renewable energy in energy system sustainability.Renew Sustain Energy Rev 77 (2017) 423-39
Geothermal Potential in Indonesia
56
Geothermal Potential in Indonesia based on the Ring of Fire
Country Updatecapacity(MW)
EstimationhydrothermalPotential
Powergeneration share(%)
USA 3700 16,457 0.42
Philippine 1870 4335 14
Indonesia 1533 28,910 2.15
Mexico 1058 2310 -
New Zealand 1005 - 22
Japan 519 23,400 0.2
Installed capacity, potential, utilization ratio andpower generation share.
Pambudi, Nugroho Agung. "Geothermal power generation inIndonesia, a country within the ring of fire: Current status, futuredevelopment and policy." Renewable and Sustainable EnergyReviews (2017).
Geothermal in Indonesia
57
The Beneficial of Geothermal Energy in Indonesia1. Most of the volcanoes are onshore volcanoes2. Major location of the volcanoes are in Sumatra and Java Islands (most dense
islands in Indonesia)
3. Fully support from the government to develop geothermal power plant
https://www.stratfor.com/sites/default/files/styles/wv_medium/public/main/images/Figure3.jpg?itok=MHjr6S_G
Solar Energy in Indonesia
• Indonesia has a daily irradiance around 4.8 kWh/m2 day• Factors: humidity, temperature, UV level, air density• Incorrect solar panel• Low support from government, community• Low maintenance capability
58
globalsolaratlas.info/
Global Wind Energy Potential
59https://www.globalwindatlas.info/
Wind Energy in Indonesia
• Generally low wind
• Tropical country: low wind speed, fluctuating wind speed and direction
60