Muhammad Aziz

Department of Mechanical and Biofunctional Systems, Institute of Industrial ScienceThe University of Tokyo

Future scenario toward sustainable and greenenergy systems: Integration of innovative

technologies

4thAnnual Applied Science and Engineering Conference (AASEC) 2019Denpasar, Indonesia

April 24, 2019

Introduction

Muhammad Aziz, Dr. Eng.Associate ProfessorInstitute of Industrial Science, The University of Tokyo

Managing Director, Ikatan Ilmuwan Indonesia Internasional, Asia Timur

Scopus ID : 56436934500ORCID : 0000-0003-2433-8500Researcher ID : B-9248-2015Homepage : aes.ssr.titech.ac.jp/azizh-index : 25 (google scholar), 24 (Scopus)Publication : Journals : 93, Books and Chapters: 18

Research AreasEnergy systems, Process design, Power generation, Carbon capture and storage,Hydrogen production, Renewable Energy, Energy conservation, Energy and exergyanalysis, Exergy recovery, Electric vehicle, Batteries, Smart grid

Education1. Dept. Electrical Engineering, Bandung Institute of Technology, 1998-19992. Osaka University (formerly Osaka University of Foreign Studies) 1999 - 20003. Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, Kyushu University (B.Eng) 2000 - 20044. Intelligent Machinery and Systems Engineering, Kyushu University (M. Eng.) 2004 –2006 and Dr. Eng. 2006-2008

Industry 4.0 and Society 5.0

3

Elimination of 5 walls:1. The wall of the Ministries and Agencies2. The wall of the legal system3. The wall of technologies4. The wall of human resources5. The wall of social acceptance

Industry 4.01. Internet of Things2. Autonomous robots3. Cloud Computing4. Big Data/Analytics5. Additive Manufacturing6. System Integration7. Augmented Reality8. Simulation9. Cybersecurity

Toward realization of Society 5.0

4

Energy from Past to Future

5

Source: IIASA, 2012: The Global Energy Assessment: Toward aSustainable Energy Future

Energy Sustainability

6

Resiliency

Energy Sustainability: Energy Triangle

7

Environmental SustainabilityClimate and environment

Energy SecuritySecurity of supply

Energy qualityDiversificationAccessibility

Energy EquityCompetitiveness

OpportunityEconomic growth

Energy Sector: a Key Contributor toGlobal Warming

8

Sources: IEA, 2016: CO2 emissions from fuel combustionMIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, 2016: Food, Water, Energy, Climate

Outlook: Perspectives from 2016

Estimated shares of global anthropogenic GHG Current Greenhouse Gas Concentrations

Limited Remaining Carbon Budget

9

Our remaining carbon budget to 2100 isapproximately 900 Gt CO2

Source: Energy Transitions Commission 2017: The future of fossil fuels: How to steerfossil fuel use in a transition to a low-carbon energy system

Energy Transition

10

Source: Energy Transitions Commission 2017: Better Energy, Greater Prosperity,Achievable pathways to low-carbon energy systems

Transition strategies need to be pursued simultaneously toachieve a well below 2 °C scenario

(WB2C Scenario, annual emission, 2040; business as usual 47 Gt-CO2

with BB2C 2040 20 Gt-CO2)

Decarbonization of power combined withextended electrification

Decarbonization of activities which cannot becost-effectively electrified

Acceleration in the pace of energy productivityimprovement to 3% per annum

Optimization of fossil fuels use within overallcarbon budget constraints

13 Gt-CO2(48%)

4 Gt-CO2(15%)

8 Gt-CO2(30%)

2 Gt-CO2(7%)

Energy Transition in History

• 19th Century: Natural energy to coal (following theindustrial revolution)

• 20th Century: The century of petroleum (due to itseconomy, convenience, supply possibility, andtechnology development)

• 70’s : Oil crisis and the strategies to tackle it

• 21st Century: Next generation

– Environmental concern, stable and secured energy supply

– Renewable energy

– Other new resources

11

5 Pillars for Energy Sustainability

12

Renewability of energy resources

Efficiency in energy conversion, distribution, use

Lowering of environmental impact

Increasing the energy accessibility

Tailor making of energy systems on local social-economic-environmental conditions

Orecchini F. Energy Sustainability pillars. Int J Hydrogen Energy 36 (2011) 7748-49

Framework of Energy Sustainability

• Energy efficiency• Integration of low carbon

technologies and REsShortterm

• Integration of low carbon technologies and REs forelectricity and hydrogen

• Zero emission target

Midterm

• Zero consumption and zerowaste model (closed, localproduction – local consumption)

Longterm

13

Orecchini F. Energy Sustainability pillars. Int J Hydrogen Energy 36 (2011) 7748-49

Key Technologies and Smart Systems

14

Adoption of renewable energy

15

Global average cost of electricity(CSP, PV, onshore and offshore winds, 2010-2020)

Unsubsidized Levelized Cost of Energy Comparison

16

Source: Lazard

Smart Energy Systems

17

An approach in which smart electricity, thermal and gas grids are combined with storagetechnologies and coordinated to identify synergies between them in order to achieve an

optimal solution for each individual sector as well as for the overall energy system

Lund H, Ostergaard PA, Connolly D, Mathiesen BV. Smart energy and smart energy systems. Energy 137 (2017) 556-565

Smart electricity gridsConnects flexible electricity demands such as heat pumps and electricvehicles to the intermittent renewable resources such as wind and solar power

Smart thermal gridsconnect the electricity and heating sectors. This enables the utilization ofthermal storage for creating additional flexibility and the recycling of heatlosses in the energy system

Smart gas gridconnect the electricity, heating, and transport sectors. This enables theutilization of gas storage for creating additional flexibility. If the gas is refined toa liquid fuel, then liquid fuel storages can also be utilized

Smart Electricity Grid

Electricity network using digital and other advanced technologies to monitor and managethe transport of electricity from all generation sources.

18

Key Characteristics

• Uses information technologies toimprove how electricity travels frompower plants to consumers

• Allows consumers to interact withthe grid

• Integrates new and improvedtechnologies into the operation ofthe grid

• Self healing: grid detects, analyzes,responds,…

• Provides power quality to consumerand industry

• Accommodates demand responds,combined heat and power, wind, PV,and end-use efficiency

• Transform the power sector into asecure, adaptive, sustainable anddigitally

From Centralized to Distributed

19

Concept of Smart Electricity

20Source: Velankani Communications

Future Energy Forms: Electricity and Hydrogen

21

Integrated hydrogen in power and gas grids

22

H2 and its storage

Potential secondary energy source (cleanliness, high efficiency, high variety of productionand utilization)

Energy density by weight is high (33 kWh/kg), but by volume is very low (3 Wh/l)

Produced mainly from natural gas, oil reforming, coal gasification, water electrolysis

H2 production and utilization with NH3 storage

Possible H2 storages:Compressed H2, liquefied H2, liquid organic H2 carrier (LOHC),metal hydrides, NH3

Primaryenergy

sourcesStorage

Direct use

Conceptual Chart of a Hydrogen Supply Chain

24

Oil field/flaringgas, etc.

Brown coal,etc.

Electric powerfrom

renewableenergy

PipelinesHigh-pressurehydrogen gas

Fuel cell vehicles

Distributed power supply

Hydrogen refueling station

Hydrogen power generation

Hydrogen

Hydrogen

Hydrogen

Hydrogen

Hydrogen

Hydrogen

Liquid hydrogenOrganic hydride

ProductionProduction Storage and TransportationStorage and Transportation ConsumptionConsumption

Hydrogen Production Method

25

Fossil fuels(Petroleum, natural gas,

etc.)

Hydrogen is producedby reacting fossil fuelwith water vapor athigh temperature.

Byproduct hydrogen(Iron-making, chemistry,

etc.)

Hydrogen isgenerated as abyproduct during themanufacture ofsodium hydroxide orsimilar.

Hydrogen-richbyproduct gas isgenerated duringcoke refining, a steelmanufacturingprocess.

At present, these substances are already beingput to practical use.

At present, these substances are already beingput to practical use.

Unused energy

Hydrogen is producedfrom unused energysuch as low-grade coalslike lignite, crudepetroleum, andassociated gas in gasfields (in the future,technology for reducingCO2 emissions, such asCCS, will be utilized).

Unused byproducthydrogen will be utilized.

On a midterm basis,unused energy is

utilized.

On a midterm basis,unused energy is

utilized.

Renewable energy(Wind power, solar power,

etc.)

Hydrogen isproduced in such away that electricitygenerated byrenewable energy ispassed into water(electrolysis of water).

On a long-term basis,renewable energy is

utilized.

On a long-term basis,renewable energy is

utilized.

CO2-free H2 supply chain

Transport & StorageHydrogenProduction

Australia, etc.Low-cost hydrogen

productionfrom brown coal

Japan

SurplusRenewable

EnergyGasification,

Refining

BrownCoal

CO2 CaptureStorage (CCS)

Liquefaction& Storage

Utilization

CO free H2 2

LiquefiedHydrogenCarriers

LiquefiedHydrogenContainer

LiquefiedHydrogenStorageTanks

Power plantsCombinedcycle powerplants

Use in processesSemiconductor, solar cell productions

oil refining and desulfurization

Transportation equipmentRefueling stationFuel cell vehicles

Distributed power generationHydrogen gasturbines andengines, fuel cellsetc.

C JAXACO2

H2

Roadmap of H2 and fuel cell (Japan scenario)

【Process usage】

2014 2020

Tokyo Olympic/Paralympics as“Hydrogen Olympics”

Fast demand for H2

Diffusion of powergeneration and FCV

Fuel Cell Vehicles(FCV) Released

2025

Hydrogen production and utilization

28

Society 5 = Big Data + AI + 5G

29

Big Data is not ’just’ data, there are afew new considerations

Data atRest

Terabytes toexabytes of

existing datato process

Data inMotion

Streaming data,milliseconds to

seconds torespond

Data inMany Forms

Structured,unstructured,

text, multimedia

Data inDoubt

Uncertainty due todata inconsistency& incompleteness,

ambiguities,latency, deception,

modelapproximations

Data ofMany ValuesLarge range of data

values from free(data philanthropy

to high valuemonetization)

ValueVolume Velocity Variety Veracity Visibility

Data inthe OpenOpen data is

generally open toanyone. Which

raises issues ofprivacy.

Security andprovenance

Big Data Open Data

Big Data

30

Big data & analytics capabilities are required to address thesechallenges and opportunities

ERP/ MRP

SocialMedia

Location

CallCenters

FraudMgmt

OutageManagement

Regulatory

AssetManagement

Warranty /Quality

Telematics

Grid

Customers

New/EnhancedApplicationsAll Data

Information Integration & Governance

Systems Security StorageOn premise, Cloud, As a service

What actionshould Itake?

Decisionmanagement

Landing,ExplorationandArchivedata zone

EDW anddata mart

zone

Operationaldata zone

Real-time Data Processing & Analytics What ishappening?

Discovery andexploration

Why did ithappen?

Reporting andanalysis

What couldhappen?Predictive

analytics andmodeling

DeepAnalyticsdata zone What did

I learn, what’sbest?

Cognitive

SCADA

Smart Cities

31

A city that makes use of advanced information and communicationstechnologies (ICTs) to make the critical infrastructure components and

services of a city in a more aware, interactive, and efficient way

Aims of a Smart City

Provide a high quality of life

Ensure resource efficiencyand reduce costs

Result in sustainable growthand economic prosperity

Increase interactionbetween government andcitizens

Components in Smart Cities

32

Smart Home Energy Management

33

Energy storageAncillary serviceDemand response

Power generator

Prosumer

Electric Vehicle Integration

34

CEMS comes from the needs of harmonization between optimalenergy services, potential economy and environmental benefits.

CEMS manages the overall energy supply and demand across thecommunity.

It communicates the information with other systems both insideand outside of the community.

Multifunctioning EVs

35

Charge

The EV can be used for more than transportationservices (Energy Services)

Charge Discharge

Telephone TelephoneText Video

E-mail CameraMoney Vault

…….

iPhone

Concept of Vehicle Grid Integration

36

Demonstration Test Bed (1)

37

Secondary used batteriesEV (Mitsubishi iMiev)PCS (Power conditioning system)

Whole view

V2G Configuration

38

39

Energy Storages

40

Gen

erat

ion

T&D

End-

user

1 GW

100 MW

10 MW

1 MWFlywheel

Pow

er re

quirm

ent

100 kW

Microsecond Second Minute Hour Day Week Season Microsecond Second Minute Hour Day Week Season

10 kW

1 kW

PHS

CAES

Bat

tery

Supe

rcap

acito

rs

H2

Discharge duration

Large-scale windPV: grid support

Small-scalewind PV:Grid support

Offgridutility scale

Offgrid/ end-user

self cons.

Volta

ge re

gula

tion

Freq

uenc

y re

gula

tion

Blac

k st

art

Load

follo

win

gT&

D d

efer

ral

Arbi

trage

Inter-seasonal storage

Seasonalstorage

TechnologyApplication

Discharge duration

R&D Challenges for Batteries

41

(Source) NEDO, “Battery RM2013”, modified by IEEJ

Battery CurrentFeatures

Challenges Major Manufacturer

Li-ion200 Wh/L80 Wh/kg100 W/kg

cost reduction, enhanced safety,temperature character, .overcharge,recycle technology

GS Yuasa, Hitachi, HitachiMaxell, Mitsubishi HeavyIndustry, NEC, Panasonic(Sanyo), Toshiba etc.

LeadAcid40 Wh/L10 Wh/kg300 W/kg

discharge/charge efficiency, cycledegradation, corrosion,maintenance

GS Yuasa, Shin-kobeElectric Machinery etc.

NiMH84 Wh/L20 Wh/kg100 W/kg

cost reduction, discharge/chargeefficiency, energy efficiency,temperature character, rare earth

Kawasaki Heavy IndustryFDK(Fujitsu)Panasonic (Sanyo) etc.

NAS 160 Wh/Lenhanced safety, cost reduction,energy efficiency, recycletechnology

NGK Insulators

Redox Flow 8.5 Wh/Lenvironmental acceptability, costreduction, durability, energy density,resource restriction

Sumitomo Electric

CommonChallenges

cost reduction of power conditioner (inverter), long time backup (more than24hours).V2H/V2G, secondary use, recycle, residual performance, standardization,etc.

Carbon Capture, Storage, and Utilization

42

CO2 Capture Technology

43

Technological Achievements

CaptureUtilization StorageRequired characteristics for CCS Capacity and economic feasibility

Environmental benign fate

Long term stability

Basic Capturing Technologies

44A Al-Mamoori, A Krishnamurthy, AA Rownaghi, F Rezaei. Carbon capture and utilization update. Energy Technol 5 (2017) 834-849.

+ Cryogenic

CO2 Capture Stages

45

Carbon Storage Schemes

46

Mineral Carbonization

Mimics natural chemicaltransformation of CO2

MgO + CO2 MgCO3

Thermodynamically stableproduct & Exothermic reaction

Appropriate for long-termenvironmentally benign andunmonitored storage

Ocean storage

Biological fixation

Geologic storage

Mineral carbonation

Geological Storage

Carbon Utilization

47

What do we need…??

• Security– Strong focus on security must be balanced with other pillars– Security on energy storage to balance the supply and demand– Accurate potential calculation on domestic energy resources– Optimum spatial mapping in accordance with the resources

• Decarbonization– Clean conversion technology– Fuel carbon reduction, intermediate conversion

• Energy efficiency– Awareness on the “consumed energy amount”, impact to economy and environment– Incentives on introduction of energy-efficient technology/devices

• Renewable energy– Optimum adoption of RE (geothermal, biomass, PV, wind, etc.)– Accurate forecast technology– Domestic components manufacturing– Appropriate incentives planning (fiscal, licensing, FIT, etc.)– Larger RE adoption is not always greener: balancing and mapping

48

What do we need…??

• Open market and participation opportunity– Clear regulation and mechanism– Participation encouragement from private and residential sectors– Overall monitoring– Profit distribution

• Resiliency– Strong against the disaster– Self healing capability

• Social– Employment– Energy-saving awareness

• General policies– Clear and accurate grand scenario on energy sector– Prioritization on domestic human resource– Establishment of environmental conservations obligations– Ease of contract, transparency, guarantee– Assistance in fiscal risks

49

What we need for the country…..

• Integrated and smarter system

• Diversification of energy sources, with geothermal,hydro and biomass as the main

• Low environmental impact technologies

• Clear and sustainable policies

• Open and transparent market for higher participation

• Local-production and local-consumption

• Domestic technology transfer and creation

50

51

Muhammad Aziz, Dr. Eng.Assoc. Professor

Institute of Industrial Science,The University of Tokyo

E-mail : maziz@iis.u-tokyo.ac.jpTel : +81-3-5452-6196

http://epi.iis.u-tokyo.ac.jp

Energy in Indonesia

52

Indonesia Energy Conditions

53

Electricity consumption per capita

Electrification ratio

• Low energy consumption per capita

• Significant increase in the future

• Low electrification

Significant Increase of GDP and EnergyDemand

54

• Significant increase of demand in thefuture

• Strong impact on the global energymarket and its worries

GDP and electricity demand forecast

Electricity demand

Pratama et al. Multi-objective optimization of a multiregional electricity system inan archipelagic state: The role of renewable energy in energy system sustainability.Renew Sustain Energy Rev 77 (2017) 423-39

Regional Renewable Energy Potential

55

Hydro-LS Hydro-SS Geothermal Biomass Wind PV CSP Total

Sumatra 4032.4 40.0 13,553.0 18,138.3 929.4 35,149.7 0.0 72,259.4

Jamali 4659.5 270.0 10,013.0 10,616.8 2450.6 79,201.3 0.0 108,309.6

Kalimantan 366.0 9.0 145.0 6024.9 388.8 9726.3 0.0 16,834.2

Sulawesi 3136.8 142.0 2939.0 2086.0 1759.4 10,217.9 0.0 21,069.7

Maluku and NT 167.5 26.0 2488.0 729.6 3253.6 6722.4 2774.5 17,620.0

Papua 49.0 13.0 75.0 162.2 218.2 4300.9 0.0 4916.1

Pratama et al. Multi-objective optimization of a multiregional electricity system in an archipelagic state: The role of renewable energy in energy system sustainability.Renew Sustain Energy Rev 77 (2017) 423-39

Geothermal Potential in Indonesia

56

Geothermal Potential in Indonesia based on the Ring of Fire

Country Updatecapacity(MW)

EstimationhydrothermalPotential

Powergeneration share(%)

USA 3700 16,457 0.42

Philippine 1870 4335 14

Indonesia 1533 28,910 2.15

Mexico 1058 2310 -

New Zealand 1005 - 22

Japan 519 23,400 0.2

Installed capacity, potential, utilization ratio andpower generation share.

Pambudi, Nugroho Agung. "Geothermal power generation inIndonesia, a country within the ring of fire: Current status, futuredevelopment and policy." Renewable and Sustainable EnergyReviews (2017).

Geothermal in Indonesia

57

The Beneficial of Geothermal Energy in Indonesia1. Most of the volcanoes are onshore volcanoes2. Major location of the volcanoes are in Sumatra and Java Islands (most dense

islands in Indonesia)

3. Fully support from the government to develop geothermal power plant

https://www.stratfor.com/sites/default/files/styles/wv_medium/public/main/images/Figure3.jpg?itok=MHjr6S_G

Solar Energy in Indonesia

• Indonesia has a daily irradiance around 4.8 kWh/m2 day• Factors: humidity, temperature, UV level, air density• Incorrect solar panel• Low support from government, community• Low maintenance capability

58

globalsolaratlas.info/

Global Wind Energy Potential

59https://www.globalwindatlas.info/

Wind Energy in Indonesia

• Generally low wind

• Tropical country: low wind speed, fluctuating wind speed and direction

60