Gridlock? – Transport in Gridlock? – Transport in 20302030
Solving Congestion in South Solving Congestion in South East EnglandEast England
14th November, 2007
Adrian ShooterChairman, ATOC
London’s economy depends on its railways
“You can’t build your way out of congestion”
London Commuting
People entering central London during morning peak (thousands)2006
1.3%
1.6%
0.6%
0.7%
7%
10%
34%
44%
Surface RailLU & DLRBusCoach/MinibusCarMotor CyclePedal CycleTaxi
Source: DfT Transport Statistics Great Britain 2007 Edition; Table 1.6
Where are we Going?
Passenger Kilometres since 1995/96
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1995
/96
1996
/97
1997
/98
1998
/99
1999
/00
2000
/01
2001
/02
2002
/03
2003
/04
2004
/05
2005
/06
2006
/07
2007
/08
2008
/09
2009
/10
2010
/11
2011
/12
2012
/13
2013
/14
2014
/15
2015
/16
2016
/17
2017
/18
2018
/19
2019
/20
2020
/21
2021
/22
2022
/23
2023
/24
2024
/25
2025
/26
2026
/27
2027
/28
2028
/29
2029
/30
2030
/31
2031
/32
2032
/33
2033
/34
2034
/35
2035
/36
2036
/37
Pa
ss
en
ge
r K
M (
Bill
ion
)
TfL Forecast25% by 2025
White Paper Forecast
22% by 2014
Ruth Kelly50% by 2037
London Commuting Passenger KM99/00 to 06/07
Total Passenger KM95/06 to 06/07
Note: Percentage Increase on 2005/06 Pass KM is assumed in all forecasts
Source of historical Pass KM : pre 99/00 = Lennon data (ATOC); 99/00 - 06/07 = ORR's National Rail Trends ver. Q1 07-08, Table 1.1b
European Comparisons
42.240.9 40.4
33.928.3
22.1 22.119.6
11.5 10.17.4
5.3 3.2 1.2
-13.3
-17.6-24.1
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
% i
ncr
ease
Great
Brit
ain
Irelan
d
Belgium
Franc
e
Spain
Germ
any
Denmar
k
Switzer
land
(SBB)
Holland
(NS)
Finlan
d
Hungar
yIta
ly
Austri
a
Norway
Czech
Rep
ublic
Poland
Portu
gal
Country
Passenger Kilometres - 2006 against the Base Year (1995/6/7)
New Line Capacity: HSL1
London/SE Capacity Schemes
What do Passengers want?
• Reliable, clean trains
• Good information
• Seat or standing?
• Value for money
• Easy ticketing
What the White Paper Offers
• Improved performance to 92.3%
• 1300 new coaches (2/3 in S.E.)
• Platform and depot works
• Thameslink project
• Reading rebuilding
• £150m on stations
• £200m on freight schemes
Clean, reliable trains; new depots
Double deck trains?
Longer trains
Track capacity
Station capacity
Schemes to unblock capacity
Access: bus
Access: cycling/walking
Access: car
London Overground
Electrification Benefits
• Acceleration rate improves capacity
• Alternative energy sources
• Regenerative braking
• Lighter vehicles
• Cheaper rolling stock cost
• Lower maintenance costs
Conclusions
Rail solutions:
• Longer trains, platforms
• Access to stations
• Schemes to unblock capacity
• Electrification
• New lines
