Download - Iain GillottMatthew Vartabedian (512) 263-5682(708) 387-0475 [email protected]@[email protected]
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Mobile Network Overview
Iain Gillott Matthew Vartabedian(512) 263-5682 (708) [email protected] [email protected]
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iGR’s Products and Services
Market Research & Subscription
Services
End-User Quantitative and
Qualitative Studies
Custom Research Services
Content Marketing Products and Media
Support
Wireless and Mobile Landscape
Rural Markets
Small Cell Architectures
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What is, and is not, a Small Cell?
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Sizing the Opportunity for Small Cells Bad news
◦ …is that everyone has a different definition◦ Depends on what you are selling
Good news◦ Size each opportunity based on market segment◦ Residential Femtocell
Published◦ Enterprise Picocell
Published◦ Carrier Metrocell
Published◦ In-building DAS
Final edit
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‘Official’ definition of Small Cells
And repeaters, signal boosters
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Residential Femtocells
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Rating of Voice Reception in Home
32.7%
36.5%
19.8%
7.0%
2.4%
1.5%
ExcellentVery GoodGoodPoorTerribleI don't typically use my cell phone inside my home
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Existence of a Femtocell in the Home 1.7%
46.7%
44.9%
6.8%
YesNoWhat's a femtocell?Don't know
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U.S. Femtocell Total Addressable Market, 2012 - 2017
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 10,600,000
10,800,000
11,000,000
11,200,000
11,400,000
11,600,000
11,800,000
12,000,000
12,200,000
CAGR 1.5%
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Enterprise Picocells
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Picocell Market Drivers Only employees of the given enterprise would use the
picocell(s) Picocells would not be opened up (hybrid or open
access) for use by passers-by or visitors Picocells would also not be deployed in large venues
(stadium, hotel, exhibit space, etc.) for use by a given carrier’s subscribers
Number of users would likely be the limiting factor, not floor space
Given the existence and near-ubiquity of WiFi (and wired Ethernet) at U.S. enterprises, iGR assumed that voice coverage would be the primary driver of enterprise picocell deployments
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Location of Voice Improvements
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
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Buildings per Floor Space Category
54.9%
19.1%
15.9%
5.2%
2.8% 1.4% 0.5% 0.2%
1,001 to 5,000 5,001 to 10,000 10,001 to 25,00025,001 to 50,000 50,001 to 100,000100,001 to 200,000 200,001 to 500,000 Over 500,000
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U.S. Picocell Total Addressable Market, 2012-2017
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
8,300,000
8,400,000
8,500,000
8,600,000
8,700,000
8,800,000
8,900,000
~9 million
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Carrier Metrocells
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When is bandwidth used?
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
2011 2016
Daily Percent Mobile Data Usage per Hour
6am
7am
8am
9am10
am11
amNoo
n1p
m2p
m3p
m4p
m5p
m6p
m7p
m8p
m9p
m10
pm11
pm
Mid
nigh
t0.000
0.050
0.100
0.150
0.200
0.250
2011 2016
U.S. Mobile Bandwidth used by Time of Day (GB/Hour/POP)
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Differences in Peak Demand in 20 KM2
Business or Downtown Area, 2011-2016
8am 9am 10am 11am Noon 1pm 2pm 3pm 4pm 5pm 6pm 7pm
0
50
100
150
200
250
2011 2012
2016
16x
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U.S. Metrocell TAM, 3G & 4G Combined, 2012 - 2017
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 20170
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
3G metrocell, total 4G metrocell, total
240% CAGR
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Putting it all together
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U.S. Small Cell Total Addressable Market, 2012-2017
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
0
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
10,000,000
12,000,000
14,000,000
16,000,000
18,000,000
20,000,000
22,000,000
3G metrocell, total 4G metrocell, total
Residential Femtocell Enterprise/Venue Picocell
21.2 million
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Small cells will be deployed◦ Network capacity/coverage demands require hetnet and
small cells◦ No options
Anything that is not nailed to a tower will be classed as ‘small’
3 fundamental challenges to address◦ Spectrum◦ Location – right of way, etc◦ Backhaul
These issues will throttle deployments◦ If you have all three, low hanging fruit for early
deployment
Takeaways
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Questions?