Inequality, Diversity, and Spa4al Polariza4on Trends Toronto & Chicago, 1970 – 2010
David Hulchanski Neighbourhood Change Research Partnership
University of Toronto
Joint research with Janet L Smith, University of Illinois at Chicago
Venice InternaJonal University, 9 December 2015
The research
IniJated in 2005 with focus on Toronto
In 2012 extended to other metro areas
Funded by the Social Sciences & HumaniJes Research Council of Canada
Page 2 of 38
Divided Ci4es in a Globalized, Financialized, Neoliberal Age
A new socio-‐spaJal order with stronger more rigid divisions, and greater inequality.
– Peter Marcuse & Ronald van Kempen, 2000.
3
Page 3 of 38
hXp://3ciJes.neighbourhoodchange.ca
The 2010 report has a web version with many related resources
2010 REPORT
Page 4 of 38
NATIONAL CONTEXT
FOR URBAN INEQUALITY & SPATIAL POLARIZATION
Page 5 of 38
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Why does Income Inequality MaXer?
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Socio-‐spaJal Trends, 2010 compared to 1970
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0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
1970/71 1980/81 1990/91 2000/01 2010/11
Tota
l Pop
ulat
ion
(mill
ions
) Total Population of Chicago and Toronto's
City and Suburbs, 1970-2010
Chicago's Suburbs
City of Chicago
City of Toronto
Toronto's Suburbs Note: City of Chicago plus the suburbs equals the Chicago Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA). City of Toronto plus the suburbs equals the Toronto Census Metropolitan Area (CMA).
Neighbourhood Change Research Partnership, University of Toronto www.NeighbourhoodChange.ca
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Neighbourhood Income Change: City of Chicago, 2010 vs. 1970
Data Sources:
United States Census 1970
American Community Survey 2008-2012
June 2014
Interstate Highways (2010)
Not Available
L a k e M i c h i g a n
www.NeighbourhoodChange.ca
Neighbourhood Change Research Partnership
Natalie P. Voorhees Center for
Neighbourhood & Community Improvement,
University of Illinois at Chicago
Rapid Transit (2010)
Change in census tract average individual income compared to the Chicago MSA average, 2010 versus 1970
Decrease 20% to 114%
(417 CTs; 53% of the City)
Increase or Decrease
is Less than 20%
(210 CTs; 26% of the City)
Increase 20% to 254%
(167 CTs; 21% of the City)
0 2 41
Kilometres
C o o k C o u n t y
C h i c a g o
Dwight D. Eisenhower Exwy
Adlai E. Stevenson Exwy
Eden
s Exw
yChicago Skwy
Inter
state
57
Calum
et E
xwy
John F. Kennedy Exwy
John
F. K
enne
dy E
xwy
O'Hare Airport
Norwood ParkWest Ridge
Belmont Cragin
Austin
Gage Park
Chicago Lawn
Ashburn Auburn Gresham
BeverlyMount Greenwood Roseland
West Pullman
South Deering
South Shore
Chatham
Uptown
Lincoln SquareAlbany Park
Lake ViewNorthCenter
IrvingPark
Lincoln ParkLogan Square
Avondale
Hermosa
Humboldt Park West Town Near North Side
Garfield Park Near West Side Loop
North Lawndale
South Lawndale
Lower West Side
Near South Side
Brighton Park
MicKinley ParkBridgeport
Douglas
O'Hare
Dunning
North Park
Portage Park
Englewood
New City
ArcherHeights
Kenwood
Hyde Park
Woodlawn
South Chicago
Rogers Park
Individual income for persons 15 and over,
from all sources, before-tax.
Change is in terms of percentage points.
The 2010 average individual income of the
census tract is divided by the metropolitan area
average for that year and the same is done for
1970. The difference (2010 minus 1970) is
multiplied by 100 to produce the percentage
point change for each census tract.
Census tract boundaries are held constant to
Census 2010 (794 CTs).
Area enlarged at left
L a k e M i c h i g a n
Neighbourhood Change Research Partnership, University of Toronto www.NeighbourhoodChange.ca
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Data Sources:
Statistics Canada, Census Profile Series 1971
Canada Revenue Agency, Taxfiler data, 2010
June 2014
Neighbourhood Income Change: City of Toronto, 2010 vs. 1970
www.NeighbourhoodChange.ca
Neighbourhood Change Research Partnership
Individual income for persons 15 and over,
from all sources, before-tax.
Change is in terms of percentage points.
The 2010 average individual income of the
census tract is divided by the metropolitan area
average for that year and the same is done for
1970. The difference (2010 minus 1970) is
multiplied by 100 to produce the percentage
point change for each census tract.
Census tract boundaries are held constant to
Census 2001 (515 CTs).
Sheppard East subway
Scarborough RT
Yonge-University-Spadina
subway
Highways
Bloor-Danforth subway
Former City of Toronto (1996)
Scarborough
North York
Etobicoke
York
East York
Hwy 401
Gardiner Expwy
Steeles Ave
Hw
y 4
04
Hw
y 4
00
Hw
y 4
27
Bloor St
Danforth Ave
Sheppard Ave
DV
P
Queen St
Finch Ave
T o r o n t o
Change in census tract average individual income compared to the Toronto CMA average, 2010 versus 1970
Increase of 20% or More
(131 CTs; 25% of the City)
Increase or Decrease is Less than 20%
(177 CTs; 34% of the City)
Decrease of 20% or More
(207 CTs; 40% of the City)
Yo
ng
e S
t
Not Available
0 2.5 51.25
Kilometres
Neighbourhood Change Research Partnership, University of Toronto www.NeighbourhoodChange.ca
Venice International University, 9 December 2015 Page 15 of 38 Contact: [email protected]
12
3
Top of 3D map:Income IncreasesBlue = City #1;White = City #2
Bottom of 3D map:Income DecreasesWhite = City #2;Brown = City #3
July 2014
Data Sources: Statistics Canada, Census Profile Series 1971, Canada Revenue Agency, Taxfiler data, 2010
ScarboroughEtobicoke
Scarborough
North York
North York
East York
North York
www.NeighbourhoodChange.caNeighbourhood Change Research Partnership
Neighbourhood Income Change: City of Toronto, 2010 vs. 1970
City #1: Increase of 20% or More (131 Census Tracts, 25% of the City)City #2: Increase or Decrease is Less than 20% (177 Census Tracts, 34% of the City)City #3: Decrease of 20% or More (207 Census Tracts, 40% of the City)
Change in census tract average individual income compared to the Toronto CMA average, 2010 versus 1970
Individual income for persons 15 and over, from all sources, before-tax.
Census tract boundaries are held constant to Census 2001 (515 CTs).
Neighbourhood Change Research Partnership, University of Toronto www.NeighbourhoodChange.ca
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21%
26%
53%
25%
34%
40%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
City #1 City #2 City #3
Income Increased 20% or More Income Change Less than 20% Income Decreased 20% or More
Perc
enta
ge o
f Cen
sus T
ract
s Neighbourhood Income Change
City of Chicago and City of Toronto, 2010 versus 1970
CHIC
AGO
TORO
NTO
CHIC
AGO
TORO
NTO
CHIC
AGO
TORO
NTO
Income Definition: Census Tract average individual income from all sources, before-tax for persons 15 and over. Income is measured relative to the metropolitan area average each year. Chicago CT boundaries are constant 2010 while Toronto's are constant 2001.
Data Sources: United States Census 1970, American Community Survey 2008-2012, Canada Census 1971, Canada Revenue Agency Taxfiler data 2010.
Neighbourhood Change Research Partnership, University of Toronto www.NeighbourhoodChange.ca
Venice International University, 9 December 2015 Page 18 of 38 Contact: [email protected]
Socio-‐spaJal Income Change, 1970 to 2010
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June 2014
Interstate Highways (2010)
Not Available
L a k e M i c h i g a n
www.NeighbourhoodChange.caNeighbourhood Change Research Partnership
LakeMichigan
Data provided by Natalie P. Voorhees Centerfor Neighbourhood & Community Improvement,University of Illinois at Chicago.
Rapid Transit (2010)
0 2 41
Kilometres
C o o k C o u n t y
C h i c a g o
0 1 20.5
Kilometres
Dwight D. Eisenhower Exwy
Adlai E. Stevenson Exwy
Eden
s Exw
yChicago Skwy
Inter
state
57
Calum
et E
xwy
John F. Kennedy Exwy
John
F. K
enne
dy E
xwy
O'Hare Airport
Norwood ParkWest Ridge
Belmont Cragin
Austin
Gage Park
Chicago Lawn
Ashburn Auburn Gresham
BeverlyMount Greenwood Roseland
West Pullman
South Deering
South Shore
Chatham
Uptown
Lincoln SquareAlbany Park
Lake ViewNorthCenter
IrvingPark
Lincoln ParkLogan Square
Avondale
Hermosa
Humboldt Park West Town Near North Side
Garfield Park Near West Side Loop
North Lawndale
South Lawndale
Lower West Side
Near South Side
Brighton Park
MicKinley ParkBridgeport
Douglas
Austin Name of Neighbourhood Community
O'Hare
Dunning
North Park
Portage Park
Englewood
New City
ArcherHeights
Kenwood
Hyde Park
Woodlawn
South Chicago
Rogers Park
Average Individual Income, City of Chicago, 1970
Source: United States Census 1970.
Note:(1) Census tract boundaries shown are for 1970.
(2) Average income is from all sources, before-tax. Average was calculated by dividing aggregate income by total population 15 and over. Since persons with zero income cannot be excludedfrom the total population 15 and over, a few CT's have extremely low average incomes.
1970
Census Tract Average Individual Income compared to the
Chicago MSA Average of $5,366
Very Low - 4% to 60%(146 CTs, 17% of the City)
Low - 60% to 80%(270 CTs, 32% of the City)
Middle Income - 80% to 120%(390 CTs, 46% of the City)
High - 120% to 140%(22 CTs, 3% of the City)
Very High - 140% to 362%(30 CTs, 4% of the City)
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June 2014
Interstate Highways (2010)
Not Available
L a k e M i c h i g a n
www.NeighbourhoodChange.caNeighbourhood Change Research Partnership
LakeMichigan
Data provided by Natalie P. Voorhees Centerfor Neighbourhood & Community Improvement,University of Illinois at Chicago.
Rapid Transit (2010)
0 2 41
Kilometres
C o o k C o u n t y
C h i c a g o
0 1 20.5
Kilometres
Dwight D. Eisenhower Exwy
Adlai E. Stevenson Exwy
Eden
s Exw
yChicago Skwy
Inter
state
57
Calum
et E
xwy
John F. Kennedy Exwy
John
F. K
enne
dy E
xwy
O'Hare Airport
Norwood ParkWest Ridge
Belmont Cragin
Austin
Gage Park
Chicago Lawn
Ashburn Auburn Gresham
BeverlyMount Greenwood Roseland
West Pullman
South Deering
South Shore
Chatham
Uptown
Lincoln SquareAlbany Park
Lake ViewNorthCenter
IrvingPark
Lincoln ParkLogan Square
Avondale
Hermosa
Humboldt Park West Town Near North Side
Garfield Park Near West Side Loop
North Lawndale
South Lawndale
Lower West Side
Near South Side
Brighton Park
MicKinley ParkBridgeport
Douglas
Austin Name of Neighbourhood Community
O'Hare
Dunning
North Park
Portage Park
Englewood
New City
ArcherHeights
Kenwood
Hyde Park
Woodlawn
South Chicago
Rogers Park
Average Individual Income, City of Chicago, 2010
Source: American Community Survey, 2010.
Note:(1) Census tract boundaries shown are for 2010.
(2) Average income is from all sources, before-tax. Average was calculated by dividing aggregate income by total population 15 and over. Since persons with zero income cannot be excludedfrom the total population 15 and over, a few CT's have extremely low average incomes.
2010
Census Tract Average Individual Income compared to the Chicago MSA Average of $38,895
Very Low - 1% to 60%(365 CTs, 46% of the City)
Low - 60% to 80%(153 CTs, 19% of the City)
Middle Income - 80% to 120%(128 CTs, 16% of the City)
High - 120% to 140%(30 CTs, 4% of the City)
Very High - 140% to 348%(115 CTs, 15% of the City)
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Average Individual Income, Metro Toronto, 1970
Source: (1) Statistics Canada, Census Profile Series, 1971(2) Statistics Canada, CensusRoad Network, 2011
www.NeighbourhoodChange.ca
Notes: (1)Census tract and municipal boundaries are for 1971.
Not Available
November 2012
Scarborough
North York
Etobicoke
York
East York1970
(2) Average Individual Income is for persons 15 and over and includes income from all sources, before-tax.
Highways (2011)
Census Tract Average Individual Income compared to
the Toronto Census Metropolitan Area Average of $5,756
Very Low - 52% to 60%(7 CTs, 2% of the City)
Low - 60% to 80%(83 CTs, 24% of the City)
Middle Income - 80% to 120%(197 CTs, 58% of the City)
High - 120% to 140%(23 CTs, 7% of the City)
Very High - 140% to 396%(30 CTs, 9% of the City)
Municipalities (1971)
3 0 31.5
Kilometers
City of Toronto Priority Neighbourhoods (2005)
Bloor-Danforth subway (2011)
Sheppard East subway (2011)
Scarborough RT (2011)Yonge-University-Spadina subway (2011)
Hwy 401
Hwy 401
Gardiner Expwy
Steeles Ave
Hwy 4
04
Yong
e St
Hwy 4
00
Hwy 4
27
Bloor StDanforth Ave
Sheppard Ave
DVP
Queen St
Finch Ave
Toronto
Metro Toronto in 1971 was a regional municipality which included Scarborough, North York, Etobicoke, York, East York and City of Toronto. This is not to be confusedwith the Toronto Census Metropolitan Area (CMA) which is the larger region that also includes municipalities in the "905 region" adjacent to Metro Toronto.
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Average Individual Income, City of Toronto, 2010
Source: (1) Statistics Canada, Census boundary files, 2006(2) Statistics Canada, CensusRoad Network, 2011 (3) Canada Revenue Agency, Taxfiler Data, 2010
www.NeighbourhoodChange.ca
Notes: (1)Census tractboundaries are for 2006.
Not Available
November 2012
Scarborough
North York
Etobicoke
York
East York2010
(2) Average Individual Income is for persons 15 and over and includes income from all sources,before-tax. Income for 2010based on all taxfilers for censustracts 2006 boundaries.
Highways (2011)
Census Tract Average Individual Income compared to
the Toronto Census Metropolitan Area Average of $44,271
Very Low - 34% to 60%(72 CTs, 14% of the City)
Low - 60% to 80%(188 CTs, 36% of the City)
Middle Income - 80% to 120%(151 CTs, 29% of the City)
High - 120% to 140%(31 CTs, 6% of the City)
Very High - 140% to 627%(85 CTs, 16% of the City)
T o r o n t o
Former City of Toronto (1996)
North York Former Municipality (1996)
3 0 31.5
Kilometers
City of Toronto Priority Neighbourhoods (2005)
Bloor-Danforth subway (2011)
Sheppard East subway (2011)
Scarborough RT (2011)Yonge-University-Spadina subway (2011)
Hwy 401
Hwy 401
Gardiner Expwy
Steeles Ave
Hwy 4
04
Yong
e St
Hwy 4
00
Hwy 4
27
Bloor StDanforth Ave
Sheppard Ave
DVP
Queen St
Finch Ave
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484 23%
588 28%
754 33%
1,143 48%
1,304 52%
1,373 55%
1,337 51%
1,313 63%
1,277 60%
1,163 51%
870 36%
798 32%
703 28%
737 28%
287 14%
268 13%
353 16%
377 16%
392 16%
419 17%
540 21%
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
1970 1980 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Tota
l Pop
ulat
ion
(tho
usan
ds)
Neighbourhood Income & Population, City of Toronto, 1970-2010
High Income (More than 20% Above) Middle Income (Within 20%) Low Income (More than 20% Below)
Income Definition Notes: Individual income is for persons 15 and over, from all sources, before-tax. Census tract boundaries correspond to those that existed in each census year. Income for 2010 is based on all taxfilers for 2006 CT boundaries.
Census Tract Average Income compared to the CMA Average
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14
9
2
1
2
46
45
48
33
17
36
41
30
27
24
19
25
26
28
31
29
32
50
56
58
16
18
17
33
45
6
4
7
7
7
4
3
2
2
3
16
14
11
9
9
15
9
6
3
3
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
2010
2000
1990
1980
1970
Toronto
2010
2000
1990
1980
1970
Chicago
Census Tract Income Distribution, 1970-2010 City of Chicago and City of Toronto
Very Low (< 60%) Low (60% to 80%) Middle (80% to 120%) High (120% to 140%) Very High (> 140%)
Data Sources: United States Census 1970-2000, American Community Survey 2010, Canada Census 1971-2001, Canada Revenue Agency Taxfiler data 2010.
Income Definition: Census Tract average individual income from all sources, before-tax for persons 15 and over. Income is measured relative to the metropolitan area average each year using CT boundaries as they existed each census year.
Neighbourhood Change Research Partnership, University of Toronto www.NeighbourhoodChange.ca
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0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Perc
enta
ge o
f Tot
al C
ensu
s Tra
cts
Share of Middle Income Census Tracts City of Chicago and City of Toronto, 1970-2010
Toronto
Chicago
Note: Based on census tract average individual income for persons 15 and over, from all sources, before-tax. Census tract boundaries correspond to those that existed in each census year.
Data Sources: United States Census 1970-2000, American Community Survey 2010, Canada Census 1971-2001, Canada Revenue Agency Taxfiler data 2010.
Middle income defined as census tract average individual income within 20% (above or below) the metropolitan area average.
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Toronto’s Segregated Ethno-‐Cultural PopulaJon, 2006
28 28
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Summary Socio-‐spaJal Change, 1970–2010
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Summary: Increasingly Divided Ci4es Growing Socio-‐spaJal Divides
Trends in the Chicago and Toronto are the same: greater income inequality and greater geographic polarizaJon since 1970.
1. Similar trends: Chicago’s income divides were greater and occurred earlier than Toronto’s; starJng in the 1990’s Toronto began to approach Chicago’s levels of socio-‐spaJal divides. Both have very high levels of, and conJnuing increases in, inequality and polarizaJon.
30
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Summary: Increasingly Divided Ci4es Growing Socio-‐spaJal Divides
2. Greater neighbourhood segrega4on by income: The trajectories of the social spaJal-‐divides in the two metropolitan areas have some disJnct paXerns but are heading in the same direcJon: • more very high and very low income neighbourhoods (due to growing income inequality),
• fewer middle income neighbourhoods (due to growing income polarizaJon).
SegregaJon is the result: greater spaJal concentraJons of different social groups.
31
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Summary: Increasingly Divided Ci4es Growing Socio-‐spaJal Divides
3. More unequal life chances: The locaJon where one lives and grows up becomes an increasingly important factor in opportuniJes and life chances, which in turn exacerbates the growing social spaJal divide if nothing is being down about it.
4. Importance of public policies: Public policies have contributed to and are necessary for the amelioraJon of socio-‐spaJal polarizaJon.
32
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Why worry about more rigid socio-‐spa4al divisions and greater inequality?
“Inequality promotes strategies that are more self-‐interested, less affiliaJve, oien highly anJsocial, more stressful, and likely to give rise to higher levels of violence, poorer community relaJons, and worse health.” – Richard Wilkinson, The Impact of Inequality, 2005:22
33
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What is the cause? What can be done?
Policy op4ons Economic INEQUALITY
Socio-‐spa4al POLARIZATION / EXCLUSION
Spa4al SEGREGATION & DISADVANTAGE
34
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Cause? SoluJon?
Federal & Provincial Policies in 4 areas
ESSENTIAL Government Policy AcJons
Income Support Strategy
EffecJve AnJ-‐DiscriminaJon
Strategy Affordable
Housing Strategy
Labour Market Strategy
35
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For fu r ther in fo rmat ion
www.NeighbourhoodChange.ca
Larry Bourne, David Ley, Richard Maaranen, Robert Murdie, Damaris Rose, Alan Walks
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Venice International University, 9 December 2015 Page 36 of 38 Contact: [email protected]
For f u r t he r i n f o rma t i on
www.NeighbourhoodChange.ca
Research methods and analytic framework developed by
Larry Bourne
Jill Grant
David Hulchanski
David Ley
Richard Maaranen
Robert Murdie
Damaris Rose
Janet Smith
Ivan Townshend
Alan Walks
Neighbourhood Change Research Partnership, University of Toronto www.NeighbourhoodChange.ca
Venice International University, 9 December 2015 Page 37 of 38 Contact: [email protected]
Funded by peer reviewed grants
Partnership Grant, 2012-2019
Public Outreach Grant, 2010-11
Community University Research Alliance, 2005-2010
Neighbourhood Change Research Partnership, University of Toronto www.NeighbourhoodChange.ca
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