inequality, diversity, and spa4al polariza4on trends · maxer? neighbourhood change research...

Inequality, Diversity, and Spa4al Polariza4on Trends Toronto & Chicago, 1970 – 2010

David Hulchanski Neighbourhood Change Research Partnership

University of Toronto

Joint research with Janet L Smith, University of Illinois at Chicago

Venice InternaJonal University, 9 December 2015

The research

IniJated in 2005 with focus on Toronto

In 2012 extended to other metro areas

Funded by the Social Sciences & HumaniJes Research Council of Canada

of 38

Divided Ci4es in a Globalized, Financialized, Neoliberal Age

A new socio-‐spaJal order with stronger more rigid divisions, and greater inequality.

– Peter Marcuse & Ronald van Kempen, 2000.

3

of 38

hXp://3ciJes.neighbourhoodchange.ca

The 2010 report has a web version with many related resources

2010 REPORT

of 38

NATIONAL CONTEXT

FOR URBAN INEQUALITY & SPATIAL POLARIZATION

of 38

Neighbourhood Change Research Partnership, University of Toronto www.NeighbourhoodChange.ca

Venice International University, 9 December 2015 of 38 Contact: [email protected]

Why does Income Inequality MaXer?



Socio-‐spaJal Trends, 2010 compared to 1970



0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

1970/71 1980/81 1990/91 2000/01 2010/11

Tota

l Pop

ulat

ion

(mill

ions

) Total Population of Chicago and Toronto's

City and Suburbs, 1970-2010

Chicago's Suburbs

City of Chicago

City of Toronto

Toronto's Suburbs Note: City of Chicago plus the suburbs equals the Chicago Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA). City of Toronto plus the suburbs equals the Toronto Census Metropolitan Area (CMA).



Neighbourhood Income Change: City of Chicago, 2010 vs. 1970

Data Sources:

United States Census 1970

American Community Survey 2008-2012

June 2014

Interstate Highways (2010)

Not Available

L a k e M i c h i g a n

www.NeighbourhoodChange.ca

Neighbourhood Change Research Partnership

Natalie P. Voorhees Center for

Neighbourhood & Community Improvement,

University of Illinois at Chicago

Rapid Transit (2010)

Change in census tract average individual income compared to the Chicago MSA average, 2010 versus 1970

Decrease 20% to 114%

(417 CTs; 53% of the City)

Increase or Decrease

is Less than 20%


Increase 20% to 254%


0 2 41

Kilometres

C o o k C o u n t y

C h i c a g o

Dwight D. Eisenhower Exwy

Adlai E. Stevenson Exwy

Eden

s Exw

yChicago Skwy

Inter

state

57

Calum

et E

xwy

John F. Kennedy Exwy

John

F. K

enne

dy E

xwy

O'Hare Airport

Norwood ParkWest Ridge

Belmont Cragin

Austin

Gage Park

Chicago Lawn

Ashburn Auburn Gresham

BeverlyMount Greenwood Roseland

West Pullman

South Deering

South Shore

Chatham

Uptown

Lincoln SquareAlbany Park

Lake ViewNorthCenter

IrvingPark

Lincoln ParkLogan Square

Avondale

Hermosa

Humboldt Park West Town Near North Side

Garfield Park Near West Side Loop

North Lawndale

South Lawndale

Lower West Side

Near South Side

Brighton Park

MicKinley ParkBridgeport

Douglas

O'Hare

Dunning

North Park

Portage Park

Englewood

New City

ArcherHeights

Kenwood

Hyde Park

Woodlawn

South Chicago

Rogers Park

Individual income for persons 15 and over,

from all sources, before-tax.

Change is in terms of percentage points.

The 2010 average individual income of the

census tract is divided by the metropolitan area

average for that year and the same is done for

1970. The difference (2010 minus 1970) is

multiplied by 100 to produce the percentage

point change for each census tract.

Census tract boundaries are held constant to

Census 2010 (794 CTs).

Area enlarged at left




Data Sources:

Statistics Canada, Census Profile Series 1971

Canada Revenue Agency, Taxfiler data, 2010

June 2014

Neighbourhood Income Change: City of Toronto, 2010 vs. 1970


Neighbourhood Change Research Partnership

Individual income for persons 15 and over,

from all sources, before-tax.

Change is in terms of percentage points.

The 2010 average individual income of the

census tract is divided by the metropolitan area

average for that year and the same is done for

1970. The difference (2010 minus 1970) is

multiplied by 100 to produce the percentage

point change for each census tract.

Census tract boundaries are held constant to

Census 2001 (515 CTs).

Sheppard East subway

Scarborough RT

Yonge-University-Spadina

subway

Highways

Bloor-Danforth subway

Former City of Toronto (1996)

Scarborough

North York

Etobicoke

York

East York

Hwy 401

Gardiner Expwy

Steeles Ave

Hw

y 4

04

Hw

y 4

00

Hw

y 4

27

Bloor St

Danforth Ave

Sheppard Ave

DV

P

Queen St

Finch Ave

T o r o n t o

Change in census tract average individual income compared to the Toronto CMA average, 2010 versus 1970

Increase of 20% or More


Increase or Decrease is Less than 20%


Decrease of 20% or More


Yo

ng

e S

t

Not Available

0 2.5 51.25

Kilometres



12

3

Top of 3D map:Income IncreasesBlue = City #1;White = City #2

Bottom of 3D map:Income DecreasesWhite = City #2;Brown = City #3

July 2014

Data Sources: Statistics Canada, Census Profile Series 1971, Canada Revenue Agency, Taxfiler data, 2010

ScarboroughEtobicoke

Scarborough

North York

North York

East York

North York

www.NeighbourhoodChange.caNeighbourhood Change Research Partnership

Neighbourhood Income Change: City of Toronto, 2010 vs. 1970

City #1: Increase of 20% or More (131 Census Tracts, 25% of the City)City #2: Increase or Decrease is Less than 20% (177 Census Tracts, 34% of the City)City #3: Decrease of 20% or More (207 Census Tracts, 40% of the City)

Change in census tract average individual income compared to the Toronto CMA average, 2010 versus 1970

Individual income for persons 15 and over, from all sources, before-tax.

Census tract boundaries are held constant to Census 2001 (515 CTs).



21%

26%

53%

25%

34%

40%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

City #1 City #2 City #3

Income Increased 20% or More Income Change Less than 20% Income Decreased 20% or More

Perc

enta

ge o

f Cen

sus T

ract

s Neighbourhood Income Change

City of Chicago and City of Toronto, 2010 versus 1970

CHIC

AGO

TORO

NTO

CHIC

AGO

TORO

NTO

CHIC

AGO

TORO

NTO

Income Definition: Census Tract average individual income from all sources, before-tax for persons 15 and over. Income is measured relative to the metropolitan area average each year. Chicago CT boundaries are constant 2010 while Toronto's are constant 2001.

Data Sources: United States Census 1970, American Community Survey 2008-2012, Canada Census 1971, Canada Revenue Agency Taxfiler data 2010.



Socio-‐spaJal Income Change, 1970 to 2010



June 2014


Not Available



LakeMichigan

Data provided by Natalie P. Voorhees Centerfor Neighbourhood & Community Improvement,University of Illinois at Chicago.


0 2 41

Kilometres

C o o k C o u n t y

C h i c a g o

0 1 20.5

Kilometres



Eden

s Exw

yChicago Skwy

Inter

state

57

Calum

et E

xwy


John

F. K

enne

dy E

xwy

O'Hare Airport


Belmont Cragin

Austin

Gage Park

Chicago Lawn



West Pullman

South Deering

South Shore

Chatham

Uptown



IrvingPark


Avondale

Hermosa



North Lawndale

South Lawndale

Lower West Side

Near South Side

Brighton Park


Douglas

Austin Name of Neighbourhood Community

O'Hare

Dunning

North Park

Portage Park

Englewood

New City

ArcherHeights

Kenwood

Hyde Park

Woodlawn

South Chicago

Rogers Park

Average Individual Income, City of Chicago, 1970

Source: United States Census 1970.

Note:(1) Census tract boundaries shown are for 1970.

(2) Average income is from all sources, before-tax. Average was calculated by dividing aggregate income by total population 15 and over. Since persons with zero income cannot be excludedfrom the total population 15 and over, a few CT's have extremely low average incomes.

1970

Census Tract Average Individual Income compared to the

Chicago MSA Average of $5,366

Very Low - 4% to 60%(146 CTs, 17% of the City)

Low - 60% to 80%(270 CTs, 32% of the City)

Middle Income - 80% to 120%(390 CTs, 46% of the City)

High - 120% to 140%(22 CTs, 3% of the City)

Very High - 140% to 362%(30 CTs, 4% of the City)



June 2014


Not Available



LakeMichigan

Data provided by Natalie P. Voorhees Centerfor Neighbourhood & Community Improvement,University of Illinois at Chicago.


0 2 41

Kilometres

C o o k C o u n t y

C h i c a g o

0 1 20.5

Kilometres



Eden

s Exw

yChicago Skwy

Inter

state

57

Calum

et E

xwy


John

F. K

enne

dy E

xwy

O'Hare Airport


Belmont Cragin

Austin

Gage Park

Chicago Lawn



West Pullman

South Deering

South Shore

Chatham

Uptown



IrvingPark


Avondale

Hermosa



North Lawndale

South Lawndale

Lower West Side

Near South Side

Brighton Park


Douglas

Austin Name of Neighbourhood Community

O'Hare

Dunning

North Park

Portage Park

Englewood

New City

ArcherHeights

Kenwood

Hyde Park

Woodlawn

South Chicago

Rogers Park

Average Individual Income, City of Chicago, 2010

Source: American Community Survey, 2010.

Note:(1) Census tract boundaries shown are for 2010.

(2) Average income is from all sources, before-tax. Average was calculated by dividing aggregate income by total population 15 and over. Since persons with zero income cannot be excludedfrom the total population 15 and over, a few CT's have extremely low average incomes.

2010

Census Tract Average Individual Income compared to the Chicago MSA Average of $38,895








Average Individual Income, Metro Toronto, 1970

Source: (1) Statistics Canada, Census Profile Series, 1971(2) Statistics Canada, CensusRoad Network, 2011


Notes: (1)Census tract and municipal boundaries are for 1971.

Not Available

November 2012

Scarborough

North York

Etobicoke

York

East York1970

(2) Average Individual Income is for persons 15 and over and includes income from all sources, before-tax.

Highways (2011)

Census Tract Average Individual Income compared to

the Toronto Census Metropolitan Area Average of $5,756






Municipalities (1971)

3 0 31.5

Kilometers

City of Toronto Priority Neighbourhoods (2005)

Bloor-Danforth subway (2011)

Sheppard East subway (2011)

Scarborough RT (2011)Yonge-University-Spadina subway (2011)

Hwy 401

Hwy 401

Gardiner Expwy

Steeles Ave

Hwy 4

04

Yong

e St

Hwy 4

00

Hwy 4

27

Bloor StDanforth Ave

Sheppard Ave

DVP

Queen St

Finch Ave

Toronto

Metro Toronto in 1971 was a regional municipality which included Scarborough, North York, Etobicoke, York, East York and City of Toronto. This is not to be confusedwith the Toronto Census Metropolitan Area (CMA) which is the larger region that also includes municipalities in the "905 region" adjacent to Metro Toronto.



Average Individual Income, City of Toronto, 2010

Source: (1) Statistics Canada, Census boundary files, 2006(2) Statistics Canada, CensusRoad Network, 2011 (3) Canada Revenue Agency, Taxfiler Data, 2010


Notes: (1)Census tractboundaries are for 2006.

Not Available

November 2012

Scarborough

North York

Etobicoke

York

East York2010

(2) Average Individual Income is for persons 15 and over and includes income from all sources,before-tax. Income for 2010based on all taxfilers for censustracts 2006 boundaries.

Highways (2011)

Census Tract Average Individual Income compared to

the Toronto Census Metropolitan Area Average of $44,271






T o r o n t o

Former City of Toronto (1996)

North York Former Municipality (1996)

3 0 31.5

Kilometers

City of Toronto Priority Neighbourhoods (2005)

Bloor-Danforth subway (2011)

Sheppard East subway (2011)

Scarborough RT (2011)Yonge-University-Spadina subway (2011)

Hwy 401

Hwy 401

Gardiner Expwy

Steeles Ave

Hwy 4

04

Yong

e St

Hwy 4

00

Hwy 4

27

Bloor StDanforth Ave

Sheppard Ave

DVP

Queen St

Finch Ave



484 23%

588 28%

754 33%

1,143 48%

1,304 52%

1,373 55%

1,337 51%

1,313 63%

1,277 60%

1,163 51%

870 36%

798 32%

703 28%

737 28%

287 14%

268 13%

353 16%

377 16%

392 16%

419 17%

540 21%

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

1970 1980 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Tota

l Pop

ulat

ion

(tho

usan

ds)

Neighbourhood Income & Population, City of Toronto, 1970-2010

High Income (More than 20% Above) Middle Income (Within 20%) Low Income (More than 20% Below)

Income Definition Notes: Individual income is for persons 15 and over, from all sources, before-tax. Census tract boundaries correspond to those that existed in each census year. Income for 2010 is based on all taxfilers for 2006 CT boundaries.

Census Tract Average Income compared to the CMA Average



14

9

2

1

2

46

45

48

33

17

36

41

30

27

24

19

25

26

28

31

29

32

50

56

58

16

18

17

33

45

6

4

7

7

7

4

3

2

2

3

16

14

11

9

9

15

9

6

3

3

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

2010

2000

1990

1980

1970

Toronto

2010

2000

1990

1980

1970

Chicago

Census Tract Income Distribution, 1970-2010 City of Chicago and City of Toronto

Very Low (< 60%) Low (60% to 80%) Middle (80% to 120%) High (120% to 140%) Very High (> 140%)

Data Sources: United States Census 1970-2000, American Community Survey 2010, Canada Census 1971-2001, Canada Revenue Agency Taxfiler data 2010.

Income Definition: Census Tract average individual income from all sources, before-tax for persons 15 and over. Income is measured relative to the metropolitan area average each year using CT boundaries as they existed each census year.



0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Perc

enta

ge o

f Tot

al C

ensu

s Tra

cts

Share of Middle Income Census Tracts City of Chicago and City of Toronto, 1970-2010

Toronto

Chicago

Note: Based on census tract average individual income for persons 15 and over, from all sources, before-tax. Census tract boundaries correspond to those that existed in each census year.

Data Sources: United States Census 1970-2000, American Community Survey 2010, Canada Census 1971-2001, Canada Revenue Agency Taxfiler data 2010.

Middle income defined as census tract average individual income within 20% (above or below) the metropolitan area average.



Toronto’s Segregated Ethno-‐Cultural PopulaJon, 2006

28 28



Summary Socio-‐spaJal Change, 1970–2010



Summary: Increasingly Divided Ci4es Growing Socio-‐spaJal Divides

Trends in the Chicago and Toronto are the same: greater income inequality and greater geographic polarizaJon since 1970.

1.  Similar trends: Chicago’s income divides were greater and occurred earlier than Toronto’s; starJng in the 1990’s Toronto began to approach Chicago’s levels of socio-‐spaJal divides. Both have very high levels of, and conJnuing increases in, inequality and polarizaJon.

30




2.  Greater neighbourhood segrega4on by income: The trajectories of the social spaJal-‐divides in the two metropolitan areas have some disJnct paXerns but are heading in the same direcJon: •  more very high and very low income neighbourhoods (due to growing income inequality),

•  fewer middle income neighbourhoods (due to growing income polarizaJon).

SegregaJon is the result: greater spaJal concentraJons of different social groups.

31




3. More unequal life chances: The locaJon where one lives and grows up becomes an increasingly important factor in opportuniJes and life chances, which in turn exacerbates the growing social spaJal divide if nothing is being down about it.

4.  Importance of public policies: Public policies have contributed to and are necessary for the amelioraJon of socio-‐spaJal polarizaJon.

32



Why worry about more rigid socio-‐spa4al divisions and greater inequality?

“Inequality promotes strategies that are more self-‐interested, less affiliaJve, oien highly anJsocial, more stressful, and likely to give rise to higher levels of violence, poorer community relaJons, and worse health.” – Richard Wilkinson, The Impact of Inequality, 2005:22

33



What is the cause? What can be done?

Policy op4ons Economic INEQUALITY

Socio-‐spa4al POLARIZATION / EXCLUSION

Spa4al SEGREGATION & DISADVANTAGE

34



Cause? SoluJon?

Federal & Provincial Policies in 4 areas

ESSENTIAL Government Policy AcJons

Income Support Strategy

EffecJve AnJ-‐DiscriminaJon

Strategy Affordable

Housing Strategy

Labour Market Strategy

35



For fu r ther in fo rmat ion


Larry Bourne, David Ley, Richard Maaranen, Robert Murdie, Damaris Rose, Alan Walks



For f u r t he r i n f o rma t i on


Research methods and analytic framework developed by

Larry Bourne

Jill Grant

David Hulchanski

David Ley

Richard Maaranen

Robert Murdie

Damaris Rose

Janet Smith

Ivan Townshend

Alan Walks



Funded by peer reviewed grants

Partnership Grant, 2012-2019

Public Outreach Grant, 2010-11

Community University Research Alliance, 2005-2010



inequality, diversity, and spa4al polariza4on trends · maxer? neighbourhood change research...

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