Download - Insight in the 21st Century
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Insight in the
21st Century
Robert MoranBrunswick Insight
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Follow the Discussion
@robertpmoran
#bqmr
futureofinsight.com
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21st Century Society and Insight
21st Century Society
Consumer
Marketing
Marketing Research
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21st Century Trends 21st Century Marketing Research
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21st Century Trends
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Futurist’s Toolbox
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7
• Open• Makeable• Multiple
• S.T.E.E.P.• Social• Technological• Economic• Ecological• Political
Thinking About The Future(s)
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Check for “Paradigm Blindness”
"Any useful statement about the futures should appear to be ridiculous.”
- Jim Dator
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“What, sir? You would make a ship sail against the wind and currents by lighting a bonfire under her decks? I pray you excuse me. I have no time to listen to such nonsense.”
- Napoleon Bonaparte upon hearing of Robert Fulton’s plans for a steam-powered engine.
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“The Americans have need of the telephone, but we do not. We have plenty of messenger boys.” Sir William Preece, Chief Engineer, British Post Office, 1878.
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“There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home.”
Ken Olson, president, chairman and founder of Digital Equipment Corp. (DEC), maker of mainframe computers in 1977.
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Welcome to the Fractured Future
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A Futures Sampler• Silver Tsunami (Asia gets old) • Extreme Longevity• Global Middle Class• Enoughness in the Advanced Economies• Automation (robots and algorithms)• Collaborative Consumption• Do It Ourselves• Prosumers• Rateocracy and Radical Transparency• Strategic materials and InGREEDients • Water Scarcity (especially in China) • Storied vs. Unstoried Products
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Wildcard:
Societal Aging.
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2012
2050
Only 1 country with more than 30% over 60
64 countries with more than 30% over 60
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Every Continent Ages
Asia Europe North America Latin
America Africa
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
11
2219
10
6
24
34
2725
1020122050
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China: Getting Old Before It Gets Rich
“In 2012 for the First Time We Saw a Drop in the Population of People of Working Age”
- Ma Jiantang, Nbs Director
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Big Changes on the Horizon
http://www.wfs.org/reports/UrgentWarningsReport2ndEd.pdf
“Studies estimate that robots could replace as much as 25% to 50% of the current, low-end labor force in the agricultural, industrial and service sectors of the U.S. economy.”
- James H . Irvine and Sandra Schwarzbach, US Naval Air Warfare Center
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…and a different society.
http://www.wfs.org/reports/UrgentWarningsReport2ndEd.pdf
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The 10 Ds of 21st Century Disruption(The things that are likely to kill off your company.)
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Now let’s talk about our industry.
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Leading Edge Marketing Research
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Future TrendsSocially Driven Scenarios Technology Driven Scenarios Economically Drive Scenarios
The Incredible Shrinking Survey Geo-Timed Feedback Dispersive Convergence
Do Not Disturb Rapid In-Market Experimentation Lilliput
Back to the Future Iterative Insight Streaming E-Agency
What was privacy? Portal Power Global Depth
Power to the People Let’s Play a Game Need for Speed
From Value to Values Limbic Space Invaders
Tribal Rituals Nano-Targeting Anticipation
Epidemiology
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Tribal Expert
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Idea Virologist
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Open Innovation Coach
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Funnel, Fast, Forward:Thoughts on the Future of Insight
From collecting to funneling and
sifting
Speed to Insight Future Forward
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FunnelCoping with Abundance
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FastSpeed to Insight
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The Quick or the Dead
Colonel John Boyd
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Forward
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Market Metabolism Quickens
Source: National Intelligence Council’s “Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds” Report
Source: Richard Foster, Yalehttp://www.innosight.com/innovation-resources/strategy-innovation/upload/creative-destruction-whips-through-corporate-america_final2012.pdf
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Acceleration Challenges Market Research
Snapshot in Time & the Driver’s Side Window
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Futurist
Think. Do.Anticipate Futures
Analysis of S.T.E.E.P. Factors
Solving for Acceleration
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Thank You
Follow me on Twitter at @robertpmoran