Insight in the

21st Century

Robert MoranBrunswick Insight

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futureofinsight.com

21st Century Society and Insight

21st Century Society

Consumer

Marketing

Marketing Research

21st Century Trends 21st Century Marketing Research

21st Century Trends

Futurist’s Toolbox

7

• Open• Makeable• Multiple

• S.T.E.E.P.• Social• Technological• Economic• Ecological• Political

Thinking About The Future(s)

Check for “Paradigm Blindness”

"Any useful statement about the futures should appear to be ridiculous.”

- Jim Dator

“What, sir? You would make a ship sail against the wind and currents by lighting a bonfire under her decks? I pray you excuse me. I have no time to listen to such nonsense.”

- Napoleon Bonaparte upon hearing of Robert Fulton’s plans for a steam-powered engine.

“The Americans have need of the telephone, but we do not. We have plenty of messenger boys.” Sir William Preece, Chief Engineer, British Post Office, 1878.

“There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home.”

Ken Olson, president, chairman and founder of Digital Equipment Corp. (DEC), maker of mainframe computers in 1977.

Welcome to the Fractured Future

A Futures Sampler• Silver Tsunami (Asia gets old) • Extreme Longevity• Global Middle Class• Enoughness in the Advanced Economies• Automation (robots and algorithms)• Collaborative Consumption• Do It Ourselves• Prosumers• Rateocracy and Radical Transparency• Strategic materials and InGREEDients • Water Scarcity (especially in China) • Storied vs. Unstoried Products

Wildcard:

Societal Aging.

2012

2050

Only 1 country with more than 30% over 60

64 countries with more than 30% over 60

Every Continent Ages

Asia Europe North America Latin

America Africa

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

11

2219

10

6

24

34

2725

1020122050

China: Getting Old Before It Gets Rich

“In 2012 for the First Time We Saw a Drop in the Population of People of Working Age”

- Ma Jiantang, Nbs Director

Big Changes on the Horizon

http://www.wfs.org/reports/UrgentWarningsReport2ndEd.pdf

“Studies estimate that robots could replace as much as 25% to 50% of the current, low-end labor force in the agricultural, industrial and service sectors of the U.S. economy.”

- James H . Irvine and Sandra Schwarzbach, US Naval Air Warfare Center

…and a different society.

http://www.wfs.org/reports/UrgentWarningsReport2ndEd.pdf

The 10 Ds of 21st Century Disruption(The things that are likely to kill off your company.)

Now let’s talk about our industry.

Leading Edge Marketing Research

Future TrendsSocially Driven Scenarios Technology Driven Scenarios Economically Drive Scenarios

The Incredible Shrinking Survey Geo-Timed Feedback Dispersive Convergence

Do Not Disturb Rapid In-Market Experimentation Lilliput

Back to the Future Iterative Insight Streaming E-Agency

What was privacy? Portal Power Global Depth

Power to the People Let’s Play a Game Need for Speed

From Value to Values Limbic Space Invaders

Tribal Rituals Nano-Targeting Anticipation

Epidemiology

Tribal Expert

Idea Virologist

Open Innovation Coach

Funnel, Fast, Forward:Thoughts on the Future of Insight

From collecting to funneling and

sifting

Speed to Insight Future Forward

FunnelCoping with Abundance

FastSpeed to Insight

The Quick or the Dead

Colonel John Boyd

Forward

Market Metabolism Quickens

Source: National Intelligence Council’s “Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds” Report

Source: Richard Foster, Yalehttp://www.innosight.com/innovation-resources/strategy-innovation/upload/creative-destruction-whips-through-corporate-america_final2012.pdf

Acceleration Challenges Market Research

Snapshot in Time & the Driver’s Side Window

Futurist

Think. Do.Anticipate Futures

Analysis of S.T.E.E.P. Factors

Solving for Acceleration

Thank You

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