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ALIEN IMPACT
5. Will climate warming fuel alien plant invasions and enhance impact on the native flora?
Ivan Nijs & Maya Verlinden
University of Antwerp
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1565
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1565
Figure 6.10
5080
306
0
50
100
150
200
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1960-1974 1975-1989 1990-2005
New plant
taxa in Belgium
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emission scenarios
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Methods used in studies so far:
• climate envelope modelling
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Possible methods :
• climate envelope modelling
• models of vegetation dynamics (DGVMs)
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Possible methods :
• climate envelope modelling
• models of vegetation dynamics
• growing plants across altitudinal gradients
future occurrence: yes
future local impact : ?
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experimental exposure to future conditions
Tambient or Tambient + 3°C
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mono native mono invasive 1:1 mixture
(1) single species
(2) communities: monocultures (native or invasive) and mixtures
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biomassheated
biomassunheated
(1) Single species: do alien species respond better to warming than congeneric natives?
+
-
* exotic species promoted over native relative*
*
* ** * *
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biomassheated
biomassunheated
(1) Single species: do alien species respond better to warming than congeneric natives?
+
-
*
*
* ** * * * *
*
* native species
promoted
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biomassheated
biomassunheated
+
- native species: mostly negative response
alien species: mixed response
S
SS
S SS
(1) Single species: do alien species respond better to warming than congeneric natives?
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(2) Communities: does warming make HIPS more competitive?
Solidago gigantea
species pair 1:
Senecio inaequidens Plantago lanceolata
species pair 2:
Epilobium hirsutum
species pair 3:
Fallopia japonica Cirsium arvense
favoured
draw
favoured
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Conclusions :
• congeneric species grown as single plants:
• natives responded mostly negatively to warming, vs. alien species mixed
more alien species might thrive
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Conclusions :
• congeneric species grown as single plants:
• natives responded mostly negatively to warming, vs. alien species mixed
• competing HIPS and natives in communities:
• some HIPS became more aggressive under warming, but other HIPS less
current “trouble species” might alter
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Conclusions :
• congeneric species grown as single plants:
• natives responded mostly negatively to warming, vs. alien species mixed
• competing HIPS and natives in communities:
• some HIPS became more aggressive under warming, but other HIPS less
• not always predictable from their monoculture response
competition experiments needed
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Species pairs:
3. Solidago gigantea – Solidago virgo-aurea4. Rumex scutatus – Rumex acetosa5. Impatiens glandulifera – Impatiens noli-tangere6. Senecio inaquidens – Senecio jacobaea7. Bidens frondosa – Bidens tripartita8. Artemisia verlotiorum – Artemisia vulgaris9. Barbarea stricta – Barbarea vulgaris10. Lathyrus latifolius – Lathyrus pratensis11. Cerastium tomentosum – Cerastium arvense12. Lepidium draba – Lepidium campestre