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James J. Hughes Ph.D.
Director, Institutional Research and Planning
Public Policy Studies, Trinity College, Hartford CT
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• Is everyone in the population moving in a secular direction over time?
• Are there distinct differences in religiosity by generation, shaped by distinct experiences?
• Are people more secular when they are young and more religious when older?
“Secular Trends,” Generations, & Life Stage
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Our current class is the tail end of Millennials, the children of the Boomers
Next up: Generation Z (New Silent), children of Gen X
Who are the Millennials?
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Millennial Ascendence
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• Religious affiliation
• Intensity of religiosity
• Importance of religion
• Attendance at services
• Prayer, meditation
• Beliefs (in God, etc.)
• Spiritual v. religious
What is Religiosity?
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• Most of the decline however is a drift from white Protestant and Catholic churches to disaffiliation
Most Millennials Still Christians
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• Nones and Non-Abrahamic religions have grown slowly since the 1970s
Most Trinity Students Still Christians
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• Trinity students are distinctly more religious, in particular more Christian, than students at peer liberal arts colleges
• Trinity students’ religiosity more closely resembles that of elite universities and Ivies
Most Trinity FYs are Christians
Fall 2014: Which do you practice or identify with?
TrinityLib Arts
CollsRoman Catholic 31% 14%
Protestant 13% 10%Baptist 0.6% 0.7%Church of Christ 0.6% 0.1%Episcopalian 2.5% 0.7%Lutheran 1.0% 0.9%Methodist 0.4% 0.9%Presbyterian 3.3% 1.3%Seventh Day Adventist 0.0% 0.0%UCC/Congregational 1.2% 0.3%Non- or inter-denominational 1.5% 1.1%Other denomination 0.8% 0.7%
Other Christian (Orth, LDS, etc.) 11% 7%
Hindu 1.9% 1.2%Jewish 4.5% 11.5%Muslim 2.6% 1.0%Buddhist 1.0% 2.2%Some other relig/spiritual tradition 0.3% 1.3%
Spiritual 4% 7%
Atheist 4% 13%None 23% 28%Other 3% 4%
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• Millennials are less affiliated than previous generations at their age
• On the other hand, three quarters still profess a religious affiliation
Declining Religious Affiliation
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• But Millennials more so
All Age Groups Disaffiliating
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Disaffiliation most common among:
•Liberals
•West and New England
•Men
•Unmarried
•White
•College-educated/affluent
Affluent New England Disaffilation
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• Millennials also far more likely to be politically independent (albeit more liberal)
• Less likely to get married as young adults
Decline in All Organizational Affiliations
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• A fifth of Millennials profess weekly attendance compared to more than half of seniors (65+)
• This will likely increase somewhat with marriage and child-bearing
Declining Attendance
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• Sometimes
Most Unaffiliated Still Attend
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• The decline is generational
• Increases somewhat over the life course
Declining (or Increasing?) Intensity
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• Generational decline in importance of religion
• But increases across life course
Likewise with Importance
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• Majority are Christian, but “spiritually” not “religiously”
Spiritual, Not Religious
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ARIS 2013: College students identified their worldview as
•32% Religious
•32% Spiritual
•28% Secular
Religious, Spiritual, Nones
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• Millennials pray and meditate less
• But prayer and “meditation” increase over the life course
Decline (and Increase) in Prayer
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God exists – I have no doubts
Gen. Decline in Belief in God
• However a majority are still certain about God
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Bible is the literal word of God
Decline in Biblical Literalism
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One True Way?: Nearly three-quarters of affiliated young adults (74%) say there is more than one true way to interpret the teachings of their faith, compared with 67% of affiliated adults ages 30 and older.
Rising Ecumenism
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• On other beliefs there are few differences between the generations
• Adults under 30, for instance, are just as likely as older adults to believe in
• life after death (75% vs. 74%)
• heaven (74% each)
• hell (62% vs. 59%)
• miracles (78% vs. 79%).
No Decline in Supernaturalism
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More Politically Liberal, Less Ideological
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• Unaffiliated see Christianity as to moralistic, political and anti-gay
Liberalism Drives Disaffiliation
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Although on elite campuses they are “middle of the road” rather than conservative
Christian Students Least Liberal
LiberalismAtheist 4.0 "Liberal"Other relig/spiritual/phil 3.9Spiritual 3.8Hindu 3.6Jewish 3.6None 3.6Other 3.6Buddhist 3.5Muslim 3.5Protestant 3.2Other Christian (Orth, LDS, etc.) 3.2Roman Catholic 3.0 "Moderate"
From the Fall 2014 COFHE FY Student Survey
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• Among Millennials religious progressives outnumber conservatives
Decline of Religious Conservatives
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• Slight evidence for secularization
• But mostly seniors still profess same religious preferences
Change at Trinity
Summer 2013Former
ReligionCurrent Religion
Spiritual 3% 7%Agnostic 3% 6%Atheist 2% 5%Jewish 5% 7%Muslim 1% 2%Buddhist 2% 3%