James J. Hughes Ph.D.

Director, Institutional Research and Planning

Public Policy Studies, Trinity College, Hartford CT

James.Hughes@trincoll.edu

• Is everyone in the population moving in a secular direction over time?

• Are there distinct differences in religiosity by generation, shaped by distinct experiences?

• Are people more secular when they are young and more religious when older?

“Secular Trends,” Generations, & Life Stage

Our current class is the tail end of Millennials, the children of the Boomers

Next up: Generation Z (New Silent), children of Gen X

Who are the Millennials?

Millennial Ascendence

• Religious affiliation

• Intensity of religiosity

• Importance of religion

• Attendance at services

• Prayer, meditation

• Beliefs (in God, etc.)

• Spiritual v. religious

What is Religiosity?

• Most of the decline however is a drift from white Protestant and Catholic churches to disaffiliation

Most Millennials Still Christians

• Nones and Non-Abrahamic religions have grown slowly since the 1970s

Most Trinity Students Still Christians

• Trinity students are distinctly more religious, in particular more Christian, than students at peer liberal arts colleges

• Trinity students’ religiosity more closely resembles that of elite universities and Ivies

Most Trinity FYs are Christians

Fall 2014: Which do you practice or identify with?

TrinityLib Arts

CollsRoman Catholic 31% 14%

Protestant 13% 10%Baptist 0.6% 0.7%Church of Christ 0.6% 0.1%Episcopalian 2.5% 0.7%Lutheran 1.0% 0.9%Methodist 0.4% 0.9%Presbyterian 3.3% 1.3%Seventh Day Adventist 0.0% 0.0%UCC/Congregational 1.2% 0.3%Non- or inter-denominational 1.5% 1.1%Other denomination 0.8% 0.7%

Other Christian (Orth, LDS, etc.) 11% 7%

Hindu 1.9% 1.2%Jewish 4.5% 11.5%Muslim 2.6% 1.0%Buddhist 1.0% 2.2%Some other relig/spiritual tradition 0.3% 1.3%

Spiritual 4% 7%

Atheist 4% 13%None 23% 28%Other 3% 4%

• Millennials are less affiliated than previous generations at their age

• On the other hand, three quarters still profess a religious affiliation

Declining Religious Affiliation

• But Millennials more so

All Age Groups Disaffiliating

Disaffiliation most common among:

•Liberals

•West and New England

•Men

•Unmarried

•White

•College-educated/affluent

Affluent New England Disaffilation

• Millennials also far more likely to be politically independent (albeit more liberal)

• Less likely to get married as young adults

Decline in All Organizational Affiliations

• A fifth of Millennials profess weekly attendance compared to more than half of seniors (65+)

• This will likely increase somewhat with marriage and child-bearing

Declining Attendance

• Sometimes

Most Unaffiliated Still Attend

• The decline is generational

• Increases somewhat over the life course

Declining (or Increasing?) Intensity

• Generational decline in importance of religion

• But increases across life course

Likewise with Importance

• Majority are Christian, but “spiritually” not “religiously”

Spiritual, Not Religious

ARIS 2013: College students identified their worldview as

•32% Religious

•32% Spiritual

•28% Secular

Religious, Spiritual, Nones

• Millennials pray and meditate less

• But prayer and “meditation” increase over the life course

Decline (and Increase) in Prayer

God exists – I have no doubts

Gen. Decline in Belief in God

• However a majority are still certain about God

Bible is the literal word of God

Decline in Biblical Literalism

One True Way?: Nearly three-quarters of affiliated young adults (74%) say there is more than one true way to interpret the teachings of their faith, compared with 67% of affiliated adults ages 30 and older.

Rising Ecumenism

• On other beliefs there are few differences between the generations

• Adults under 30, for instance, are just as likely as older adults to believe in

• life after death (75% vs. 74%)

• heaven (74% each)

• hell (62% vs. 59%)

• miracles (78% vs. 79%).

No Decline in Supernaturalism

More Politically Liberal, Less Ideological

• Unaffiliated see Christianity as to moralistic, political and anti-gay

Liberalism Drives Disaffiliation

Although on elite campuses they are “middle of the road” rather than conservative

Christian Students Least Liberal

LiberalismAtheist 4.0 "Liberal"Other relig/spiritual/phil 3.9Spiritual 3.8Hindu 3.6Jewish 3.6None 3.6Other 3.6Buddhist 3.5Muslim 3.5Protestant 3.2Other Christian (Orth, LDS, etc.) 3.2Roman Catholic 3.0 "Moderate"

From the Fall 2014 COFHE FY Student Survey

• Among Millennials religious progressives outnumber conservatives

Decline of Religious Conservatives

• Slight evidence for secularization

• But mostly seniors still profess same religious preferences

Change at Trinity

Summer 2013Former

ReligionCurrent Religion

Spiritual 3% 7%Agnostic 3% 6%Atheist 2% 5%Jewish 5% 7%Muslim 1% 2%Buddhist 2% 3%