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CAS Technical Conference on Responding to the Environmental Stressors of the 21st Century
Antalya, Turkey, 18‐19 November 2013
Lake Victoria BasinModeling and Forecasting
Severe Weather
Pascal F. Waniha
Lake Victoria BasinLake Victoria Basin
• LVB
is
the
social‐economic
nerve
center
for
EA
(Burundi,
Rwanda,
Kenya,
Tanzania, Uganda) – 30 to 40 million
• Mainly
rain
fed
agricultural
economy
with
LV
supplying
fish
as
a
major
part
of
the diet
• Lake Victoria also provides hydroelectric
energy and relatively inexpensive
form
of
transportation
• Geopolitical
significance
of
LVB
as
the
source of the White Nile
• Lake
level
a
Key
Factor
in
the
formulation
of
the
new
Transnew
Trans‐‐boundary boundary
water sharing treaty for Nile basin.water sharing treaty for Nile basin.
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Severe Weather and Water Currents
Lake Victoria is one of the region with the highest density of lightning in the world.
Global distribution of lightning strikes observed by the TRMM satellite. (From
Zipser et al. 2006).
Lake Lake
VictoriaVictoria
TRMM Lightning Climatology
Water Spout Entebbe‐Uganda (Dec 14, 2009;
potential hazard for marine navigation over
Lake Victoria
Severe Precipitation, Winds & Water Currents(3000 (3000 ––
5000 Lost Every Year)5000 Lost Every Year)
Severe Weather
•• The The fishing industry on Lake fishing industry on Lake Victoria Victoria is a is a leading natural resource leading natural resource for the people of East Africa and for the people of East Africa and
is worth hundreds of millions of dollars in domestic consumptionis worth hundreds of millions of dollars in domestic consumption
and export. and export.
•• Marine transport accidents associated with the industry cause mMarine transport accidents associated with the industry cause more than ore than 30003000‐‐5000 deaths every year5000 deaths every year, ,
which represents an unacceptable level of loss of life. which represents an unacceptable level of loss of life.
•• Most of these accidents have been Most of these accidents have been attributed to attributed to hazardous hazardous weather conditions and water currentsweather conditions and water currents
in the in the
lake. The objective under this research theme is to partner withlake. The objective under this research theme is to partner with
the NWP research and operational the NWP research and operational
communities to develop an early warning system. communities to develop an early warning system.
“WMO Executive Council (EC) recommended that a World Weather Research Programme (WWRP) project be considered for the Lake Victoria Watershed that would include a test-bed for field campaigns to collect data for research to understand the dynamics over the lake in order to reduce disaster from water spouts, waves, and wind gusts that affect both lake transport and fishermen who rely on the lake for their livelihoods. The EC further noted the potential linkages with the SWFDP for Eastern Africa."
WMO Executive Council charge to WWRP
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SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST DEMOSTRATION PROGRAM
(SWFDP)
SWFDP AimsImprove severe weather forecasting, Improve lead time
and reliability of warnings, Improve interaction of NMHSs with media and with disaster management and
civil protection authorities,
SWFDP‐East Africa ‐
Burundi, Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, Tanzania and Uganda
•Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre (RSMC) Nairobi ‐
lead centre
•Regional Forecasting Support Centre (RFSC) Dar es Salaam o coordinates and provides specialised products from high‐resolution NWP
(LAM) over Lake Victoria.
Vision for forecast dissemination.....
Met OfficeGGU
Kenya(Cross region)
Tanzania(Lake Victoria)
Rwanda
Uganda Burundi
Ethiopia
South Sudan
ConsensusSupport
Collaboration
The terrain is complex and near the equator…
200km
CHALLANGES
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CHALLANGESComplexity of the Bathymetry of the Lake
Climate Model, Semazzi et. all 2012
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CHALLANGESUnevenly Rainfall distribution over the lake (dipole)
Semazzi et. all 2012
Lake Victoria High resolution 4km version of the Met Office Unified Model
Courtesy of Caroline Bain
Lake Victoria Validation of model: Case study 17th December 2012
4km modelGlobal model Observation s
MSG Satellite OLR 17/12/2011 0600UTCT+18 forecast T+18 forecast
• The global model was able to indicate that some event might take
place, but the 4km
model was able to add detail to the case and increase forecast confidence
• The 4km model is able to represent fine scale processes in a more explicit way. Due to
the size of the grid points, it is also able to represent small scale events in more detail
than the global model
• We still need skill in the global model as the 4km relies on it for large scale forcing
Sensitivity of Rainfall Pattern on LSTSensitivity of Rainfall Pattern on LSTNo Obs LST
for model
validationto be
obtained via
HyVIC RT#5
Modified LST
LST in
Standard WRF
Configuration
No Observed
LST
TRRM
(observed)
rainfall
Rainfall DistributionIn standard
WRF RCMASK XIA
Rainfall Distributionwith modified
LST in WRF
RCM
Day vs NightDaytime Nighttim
e
ActiveInactive
OBSERVATIONS NEEDED Radar and Buoys for monitoring the lake conditions
The Lake Victoria Project Proposal
1.
The Nowcast System2.
The SWFDP3.
The Field Project4.
Capacity Building
Four Components
Objectives of WWRP LVP1)
Develop a scientific field project to understand
the dynamics of the lake and severe thunderstorms
2) Capacity build to establish a research and
operational legacy
3) Develop a prototype sustainable nowcasting
system for East Africa, particularly over the Lake
– Implementation of the nowcasting system within the
context of the existing Severe Weather Forecast
Demonstration Project
– Verification and validation of the nowcasts using the
field project.
The Field Project• Meteorological
Understanding• Scientific Validation• Statistical Verification
Red Stars –
surveillance radar
White Stars – hi res radar, dual‐
doppler
Blue Star 6 – IOS
Blue Star 4 –
Upper Air Station
Yellow – Met Stns
Proposed Combined SWFDP/WWRP Project TimeLine
Field campaign
Inception
Sat Demonstration
Implementation
Capacity and Forecast System Build
2016
2018
2014
NWP Demonstration
No Gaps!Engagement of users
Hydroclimate Project for Lake Victoria Basin (HYVIC)
Hydroclimate Project for Lake Victoria Basin (HYVIC)Fredrick Semazzi –
HyVic International Planning Committee (Chair)
Rosalind Cornforth, University of Reading, Helen Houghton‐Carr, CEH/NERC, Caroline Bain,
UKMO, Ricard Anyah, U. of Connecticut, Rita Roberts, NCAR/UCAR, Lian Xie, North Carolina
State University, Laban Ogallo, Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC), Pascal
Waniha, Tanzania Meteorology Agency (TMA)Andrew Githeko, Kenya Medical Research
Institute, Felix Mutua (Jomo Kenyatta University of Agriculture and Technology) –
HyVic
International Planning Committee (Members) 24
CEOP GHP
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Baltic Sea Experiment (BALTEX) Northern Eurasia Earth
Science Partnership (NEESPI)
Monsoon Asian Hydro-Atmosphere Science
Research and prediction Initiative
(MAHASRI)
Climate Prediction Program for the Americas
(CPPA)
Large Scale Biosphere-Atmosphere Experiment
in Amazonia (LBA)
La Plata Basin (LPB)
African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis
(AMMA)
HYdrological cycle in the Mediterranean EXperiment
(HYMEX)
Murray-Darling Basin (MDB)
Mackenzie GEWEX Studies (MAGS)
GEWEX Asia Monsoon Experiments (GAME)
Current RHP'sFormer RHP'sProspective RHP's
GEWEX REGIONAL HYDROCLIMATE PROJECTS
Regional water cycles
Terrestrial Regional North AmericanHydroclimate Experiment (TRACE)
Proposed Hydroclimate
Project for Lake Victoria
Basin (HYVIC)
Proposed GEWEX GHP Proposed GEWEX GHP HyHydroclimate Project droclimate Project for Lake for Lake VicVictoria Basin (HYVIC)toria Basin (HYVIC)
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GEWEX is a core project of WCRP
on Global Energy & Water
Exchanges
GHP: A GEWEX
Hydroclimate Panel
Past & Projected Climate Past & Projected Climate (lake levels)(lake levels)
• Persistent past decline & projected reversal and increase
•• This phenomenon is the Eastern‐
Central African climate change
paradox –
‘‘Lake Victoria Basin Lake Victoria Basin
Climate Change ParadoxClimate Change Paradox’’
• Likely to have profound implications
on LVB sustainable development for
more than 35 ‐
40 million people
RegCM downscaled rainfall for 20712071‐‐21002100
used as input for the Tate et al (2004) WBM to
compute the LL. (Smith, 2011); evaporation is 13.5% above present level based on A2
scenario. Thus projection is 2 meters above present lake levels. (Kara et al, 2013)
Past & Projected Lake Victoria LevelsPast & Projected Lake Victoria Levels
Projected Lake
Levels
13 meters: 196013 meters: 196011 meters: 201011 meters: 2010
14 meters: 210014 meters: 2100
20702070 21002100
19001900 20102010196196
00
North Carolina State UniversityNorth Carolina State University
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WCRP HyVIC Science Plan
Understanding
Lake Victoria
severe weather
Capacity Building R&D, Met, Tech
Linkages of WWRP Lake Victoria Field Project
Developing, testing
and verifying Severe
Weather Warning
System
WCRPHYVIC
Field Program Phase 1Phase 2
UKMO 4 km Model, etcEUMETSAT / GOES‐RUK LightningLocal Radar if available
NSF and University Field
Facilities
Severe Weather
Forecast
Demonstration
Project
WWRPLake VictoriaField Project
Mobile Weather
Alert
NHMS’
UniversityUniversity
Thanks Tesekkur
Ederim
Asante Sana
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