Michael Kuby, Professor, ASU School of Geographical Sciences and Urban Planning
withScott Bernstein, President
Center for Neighborhood Technology, Chicago
In US, household size is shrinking - andPhoenix is on track with national trend
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 20100%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%Percent of Households with 1-2 Persons
USPhoenix MSA
Phoenix and Maricopa lead nation in gross vacancy rates
• “Of the ten most populous cities in 2010, Phoenix had the highest gross vacancy rate at 12.8 percent.”
• “Of the ten most populous counties in 2010, Maricopa County, AZ, had both the largest percentage-point increase (4.5) during the decade and highest vacancy rate (13.9 percent) in 2010.”
– US Census Bureau, Housing Characteristics 2010, 2010 Census Briefs, C2010BR-07, Oct. 2011.
Metro Phoenix has an oversupply ofsingle-family detached houses
Total SF Detached 1,156,600 100%Total SF Detached Occupied 1,023,500 88.5%Total SF Detached Vacant 133,100 11.5%
Source: American Housing Survey, Table C-01-AH-M for Metropolitan Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, 2011
Vacancies do not include homes under development – permits for SFH still mismatched to household size
% Households 3+ Persons
% Permits Single Family
2005 40.0 86.72013 38.3 69.2
Local civil infrastructure* costs are much higher for low-density development
Low Density (less than 1 unit per acre)
High Density (more than 10 units per acre)
Infrastructure Cost per
Housing Unit $62,000 $25,000
Source: CNT Staff analysis, Capital Area Regional Planning Commission, Madison WI
*Water, sewer, roads. Based on a study by CNT in Wisconsin
Transportation in U.S. Household Budgets
Source: Kuby, M. and Golub, A. 2015. Transportation and Arizona. Arizona Town Hall Background Report: www.aztownhall.org.
Annual transportation costs (driving + public transit)
Source: Center for Neighborhood Technology, Housing+Transportation Index: http://htaindex.cnt.org/map/
Affordable Locations Relative to Median IncomeHousing < 30% H+T < 45%
Source: Center for Neighborhood Technology, Housing+Transportation Index: http://htaindex.cnt.org/map/
Foreclosures were also concentrated on the urban fringe
Source: http://archive.azcentral.com/business/foreclosures/index.php
The Sun Corridor: Far From a Foregone
Conclusion
Source: Kuby, M. and Golub, A. 2015. Transportation and Arizona. Arizona Town Hall Background Report: www.aztownhall.org.
ADOT has recommended the yellow route as the preferred alternative for Phoenix-Tucson passenger rail service, but there’s no financing yet.
Source: ADOT, Passenger Rail Study, Draft Environmental Impact Statement, 2015: http://azdot.gov/planning/CurrentStudies/PassengerRail
Will migration continue as the Sun Belt gets hotter?
Source: ADOT Extreme Weather Vulnerability Assessment, November 2014.
Feel free to contact us
• Prof. Michael Kuby, [email protected], 480-965-6850
• Scott Bernstein, CNT, [email protected]