michael kuby, professor, asu school of geographical sciences and urban planning with scott...
TRANSCRIPT
Michael Kuby, Professor, ASU School of Geographical Sciences and Urban Planning
withScott Bernstein, President
Center for Neighborhood Technology, Chicago
In US, household size is shrinking - andPhoenix is on track with national trend
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 20100%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%Percent of Households with 1-2 Persons
USPhoenix MSA
Phoenix and Maricopa lead nation in gross vacancy rates
• “Of the ten most populous cities in 2010, Phoenix had the highest gross vacancy rate at 12.8 percent.”
• “Of the ten most populous counties in 2010, Maricopa County, AZ, had both the largest percentage-point increase (4.5) during the decade and highest vacancy rate (13.9 percent) in 2010.”
– US Census Bureau, Housing Characteristics 2010, 2010 Census Briefs, C2010BR-07, Oct. 2011.
Metro Phoenix has an oversupply ofsingle-family detached houses
Total SF Detached 1,156,600 100%Total SF Detached Occupied 1,023,500 88.5%Total SF Detached Vacant 133,100 11.5%
Source: American Housing Survey, Table C-01-AH-M for Metropolitan Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, 2011
Vacancies do not include homes under development – permits for SFH still mismatched to household size
% Households 3+ Persons
% Permits Single Family
2005 40.0 86.72013 38.3 69.2
Local civil infrastructure* costs are much higher for low-density development
Low Density (less than 1 unit per acre)
High Density (more than 10 units per acre)
Infrastructure Cost per
Housing Unit $62,000 $25,000
Source: CNT Staff analysis, Capital Area Regional Planning Commission, Madison WI
*Water, sewer, roads. Based on a study by CNT in Wisconsin
Transportation in U.S. Household Budgets
Source: Kuby, M. and Golub, A. 2015. Transportation and Arizona. Arizona Town Hall Background Report: www.aztownhall.org.
Annual transportation costs (driving + public transit)
Source: Center for Neighborhood Technology, Housing+Transportation Index: http://htaindex.cnt.org/map/
Affordable Locations Relative to Median IncomeHousing < 30% H+T < 45%
Source: Center for Neighborhood Technology, Housing+Transportation Index: http://htaindex.cnt.org/map/
Foreclosures were also concentrated on the urban fringe
Source: http://archive.azcentral.com/business/foreclosures/index.php
The Sun Corridor: Far From a Foregone
Conclusion
Source: Kuby, M. and Golub, A. 2015. Transportation and Arizona. Arizona Town Hall Background Report: www.aztownhall.org.
ADOT has recommended the yellow route as the preferred alternative for Phoenix-Tucson passenger rail service, but there’s no financing yet.
Source: ADOT, Passenger Rail Study, Draft Environmental Impact Statement, 2015: http://azdot.gov/planning/CurrentStudies/PassengerRail
Will migration continue as the Sun Belt gets hotter?
Source: ADOT Extreme Weather Vulnerability Assessment, November 2014.
Feel free to contact us
• Prof. Michael Kuby, [email protected], 480-965-6850
• Scott Bernstein, CNT, [email protected]