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© 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 1 1 © 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Mobile Data Trends and Networks Fit for Purpose Focus on SEE
Robert Pepper Vice President Global Technology Policy 20 March 2013 SEE Mobility Summit
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Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Expanding the Scope of Cisco’s IP Thought Leadership Cisco® VNI Forecast research is an ongoing initiative to predict global traffic growth. This study focuses on consumer and business mobile data traffic and its key drivers.
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2012–2017
Global Mobile Speed Data
Global Forecast Data
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Global Mobile Data Traffic Drivers
More Mobile Users
Faster Mobile Speeds
More Mobile Connections
More Mobile Video
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2012–2017
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Overview
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0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Exab
ytes
per
Mon
th
7.4 EB
0.9 EB
Global Mobile Data Traffic Growth / Top-Line Global Mobile Data Traffic will Increase 13X from 2012 to 2017
11.2 EB
4.7 EB
2.8 EB
1.6 EB
66% CAGR 2012–2017
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2012–2017
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0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Peta
byte
s pe
r Mon
th
379 PB
48 PB
CEE Mobile Data Traffic Growth / Top-Line CEE-R Mobile Data Traffic will Increase 11X from 2012 to 2017
546 PB
247 PB
148 PB
83 PB
63% CAGR 2012–2017
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2012–2017; CEE excluding Russia
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0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Exab
ytes
per
Mon
th
1 EB
0.2 EB
WE Mobile Data Traffic Growth / Top-Line WE Mobile Data Traffic will Increase 8X from 2012 to 2017
1.4 EB
0.7 EB
0.4 EB 0.3 EB
50% CAGR 2012–2017
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2012–2017
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42.2
32.7
43.1
33.9
0 5
10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
IP Traffic in 2012 Internet & Mobile Traffic in 2012
Exab
ytes
per
mon
th
Projected in 2009
VNI Projections and Actuals (Global) Actual Growth Has Been Within 10% of Projected Growth
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2012–2017
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Top Trends
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VNI Mobile Forecast Update, 2012–2017 Top 6 Mobile Networking Trends
Device Diversification
Impact of 4G Connections on Traffic
The Impact of Tiered Pricing—Shake-Up at the Top
Traffic Offload from Mobile Networks to Fixed Networks
The (Mobile) Internet of Things
Mobile Video and Cloud
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© 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 11
Global Average Traffic Per Mobile Device Type
Non-Smartphone
2017 2012
6.8 31
MBs per Month MBs per Month
M2M 64 330
Smartphone 342 2,660
4G Smartphone 1,302 5,114
Tablet 820 5,387
Laptop 2,503 5,731
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2012–2017
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0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Bill
ions
of D
evic
es
Other Portable Devices (.9%) Tablets (2.3%) Laptops (2.6%) M2M (16.5%) Smartphones (27.4%)
Global Mobile Device Growth by Type By 2017, Smartphones Will Gain 11 Points to Reach 27% Share
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2012–2017
8% CAGR 2012–2017
Figures (n) refer to 2017 device share
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0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Exab
ytes
per
Mon
th
Other Portable Devices (.2%) Non-Smartphones (1.4%) M2M (5.1%) Tablets (11.7%) Laptops (14.0%) Smartphones (67.5%)
Global Mobile Data Traffic Growth by Device In 2013, Smartphone Traffic Surpass Mobile Laptop Traffic
Figures (n) refer to 2017 device share
66% CAGR 2012–2017
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2012–2017
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© 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 14
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Bill
ions
of D
evic
es
Other Portable Devices (1%, 2%) Tablets (2%, 6%) Laptops (5%, 5%) M2M (11%, 37%) Smartphones (30%, 37%)
WE Mobile Device Growth by Type By 2017, Smartphones Will Have 37% Share in 2017
Figures (n) refer to 2012 and 2017 device share
10% CAGR 2012–2017
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2012–2017
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0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Mill
ions
of D
evic
es
Other Portable Devices (0%, 0%) Tablets (0%, 2%) Laptops (3%, 3%) M2M (7%, 22%) Smartphones (15%, 22%)
CEE Mobile Device Growth by Type By 2017, Non-Smartphones Still Dominant in Numbers
Figures (n) refer to 2012 and 2017 device share
6% CAGR 2012–2017
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2012–2017; CEE excluding Russia
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0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Peta
byte
s pe
r Mon
th
Other Portable Devices (0%, 0%) Non-Smartphones (4%, 4%) M2M (4%, 6%) Tablets (1%, 12%) Laptops (51%, 19%) Smartphones (40%, 59%)
CEE Mobile Data Traffic Growth by Device Smartphone Traffic Surpasses Laptop Traffic in 2013
63% CAGR 2012–2017
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2012–2017; CEE excluding Russia
Figures (n) refer to 2012 and 2017 device share
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VNI Mobile Forecast Update, 2012–2017 Top 6 Mobile Networking Trends
Device Diversification
Impact of 4G Connections on Traffic
The Impact of Tiered Pricing—Shake-Up at the Top
Traffic Offload from Mobile Networks to Fixed Networks
The (Mobile) Internet of Things
Mobile Video and Cloud
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0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Bill
ions
of D
evic
es o
r C
onne
ctio
ns
4G 3G
Global Connections by Network Type 2G, 3G, and 4G Technology Connection Share
57% 76%
23%
1%
33%
10%
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2012–2017
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0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Mill
ions
of D
evic
es o
r C
onne
ctio
ns
4G 3G
WE Connections by Network Type 2G, 3G, and 4G Technology Connection Share
70%
56%
44%
1% 12%
18%
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2012–2017
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0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Mill
ions
of D
evic
es o
r C
onne
ctio
ns
4G 3G
CEE Connections by Network Type 2G, 3G, and 4G Technology Connection Share
72%
77%
22%
0% 8%
21%
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2012–2017; CEE excluding Russia
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0
2
4
6
8
10
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Exab
ytes
per
Mon
th
2-2.5G 3-3.5G 4G
Global Mobile Data Traffic Growth: 4G 4G Will Be 10% of Connections and 45% of Traffic in 2017
14%
45%
51%
10% 76%
4%
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2012–2017
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0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Peta
byte
s pe
r Mon
th
2-2.5G 3-3.5G 4G
CEE Mobile Data Traffic Growth: 4G 4G Will Be 8% of Connections and 37% of Traffic in 2017
2%
37%
60%
22% 76%
3%
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2012–2017; CEE excluding Russia
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© 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 23
VNI Mobile Forecast Update, 2012–2017 Top 6 Mobile Networking Trends
Device Diversification
Impact of 4G Connections on Traffic
The Impact of Tiered Pricing—Shake-Up at the Top
Traffic Offload from Mobile Networks to Fixed Networks
The (Mobile) Internet of Things
Mobile Video and Cloud
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© 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 24
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Jan-10 Sep-11 Sep-12 Perc
enta
ge o
f top
1 P
erce
nt
to to
tal M
B/m
o
Top 1 percent
Top Mobile User Profiles: 2010–2012 Top 1% Consumption Steadily Decreasing Compared to 99%
24%
16%
52%
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2012–2017
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© 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 25
VNI Mobile Forecast Update, 2012–2017 Top 6 Mobile Networking Trends
Device Diversification
Impact of 4G Connections on Traffic
The Impact of Tiered Pricing—Shake-Up at the Top
Traffic Offload from Mobile Networks to Fixed Networks
The (Mobile) Internet of Things
Mobile Video and Cloud
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0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Exab
ytes
per
Mon
th
Offload Traffic from Mobile Devices Cellular Traffic from Mobile Devices
Global Mobile Data Traffic Offload 22% of Mobile Traffic to be Offloaded in 2016 11% of Mobile Traffic Offloaded in 2011
22%
78%
Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2011–2016
2012 FORECAST
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0
5
10
15
20
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Exab
ytes
per
Mon
th
Offload Traffic from Mobile Devices Cellular Traffic from Mobile Devices
Global Mobile Data Traffic Offload 46% of Mobile Traffic to be Offloaded in 2017 33% of Mobile Traffic Offloaded in 2012
46%
54%
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2012–2017
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0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Peta
byte
s pe
r Mon
th
Offload Traffic from Mobile Devices Cellular Traffic from Mobile Devices
CEE Mobile Data Traffic Offload 29% of Mobile Traffic to be Offloaded in 2017 19% of Mobile Traffic Offloaded in 2012
29%
71%
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2012–2017; CEE excluding Russia
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0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Exab
ytes
per
Mon
th
Offload Traffic from Mobile Devices Cellular Traffic from Mobile Devices
WE Mobile Data Traffic Offload 51% of Mobile Traffic to be Offloaded in 2017 32% of Mobile Traffic Offloaded in 2012
51%
49%
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2012–2017
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0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Exab
ytes
per
Mon
th
Offload Traffic from Mobile Devices Cellular Traffic from Mobile Devices
US Mobile Data Traffic Offload 66% of Mobile Traffic to be Offloaded in 2017 47% of Mobile Traffic Offloaded in 2012
66%
34%
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2012–2017
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0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Exab
ytes
per
Mon
th
Mobile Data (70% CAGR) Fixed/Wired (20% CAGR) Fixed/Wi-Fi (34% CAGR)
Global IP Traffic by Local Access Technology By 2016, Fixed/Wi-Fi Traffic Surpasses Fixed/Wired Traffic
40%
53%
7%
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2011–2016
28% CAGR 2011–2016
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0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Exab
ytes
per
Mon
th
Mobile Data (70% CAGR) Fixed/Wired (20% CAGR) Fixed/Wi-Fi from Offload (112% CAGR) Fixed/Wi-Fi (31% CAGR)
Global IP Traffic by Local Access Technology With Wi-Fi Offload
40%
47%
7%
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2011–2016
27% CAGR 2011–2016
6%
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0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Exab
ytes
per
Mon
th
Mobile Data (69% CAGR) Fixed/Wired (19% CAGR) Fixed/Wi-Fi from Offload (109% CAGR) Fixed/Wi-Fi (48% CAGR)
CEE IP Traffic by Local Access Technology With Wi-Fi Offload
32%
55%
10%
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2011–2016; CEE excluding Russia
35% CAGR 2011–2016
4%
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© 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 34
VNI Mobile Forecast Update, 2012–2017 Top 6 Mobile Networking Trends
Device Diversification
Impact of 4G Connections on Traffic
The Impact of Tiered Pricing—Shake-Up at the Top
Traffic Offload from Mobile Networks to Fixed Networks
The (Mobile) Internet of Things
Mobile Video and Cloud
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© 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 35
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Mill
ions
Devices Users
CEE Mobile Users and Devices Users Grow at 1% CAGR, Devices Grow at 6% CAGR
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2012–2017; CEE excluding Russia
785
590
342 319
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0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Peta
byte
s pe
r Mon
th
2 PB per mo
CEE M2M Mobile Data Traffic Growth M2M Data Traffic will Increase 19X from 2012 to 2017
32 PB per mo
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2012–2017; CEE excluding Russia
80% CAGR 2012–2017
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© 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 37
VNI Mobile Forecast Update, 2012–2017 Top 6 Mobile Networking Trends
Device Diversification
Impact of 4G Connections on Traffic
The Impact of Tiered Pricing—Shake-Up at the Top
Traffic Offload from Mobile Networks to Fixed Networks
The (Mobile) Internet of Things
Mobile Video and Cloud
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© 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 38
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Peta
byte
s pe
r Mon
th
Mobile File Sharing (7.5%) Mobile M2M (5.8%) Mobile Web/Data (22.9%) Mobile Video (63.7%)
63% CAGR 2012–2017
CEE Mobile Data Traffic Growth / Apps Video to Exceed 63 Percent of Mobile Data Traffic by 2017
Figures (n) refer to 2017 traffic share
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2012–2017; CEE excluding Russia
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68% 70% 73% 76% 78% 81%
32% 30% 27% 24% 22% 19%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%
100%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Mobile Cloud Traffic Mobile Non-Cloud Traffic
CEE Mobile Cloud Traffic Cloud Accounted for 68% of Mobile Data Traffic in 2012 Cloud Will Account for 81% of Mobile Data Traffic by 2017
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2012–2017; CEE excluding Russia
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Global Cloud Readiness Business & Consumer Network Requirements for Individual Apps
Basic Cloud Apps Network Requirements: Download Speed: Up to 750 kbps Upload Speed: Up to 250 kbps Latency: Above 160 ms
Intermediate Cloud Apps Network Requirements: Download Speed: 751–2,500 kbps Upload Speed: 251–1,000 kbps Latency: 159 - 100 ms
Advanced Cloud Apps Network Requirements: Download Speed: Higher than 2,500 kbps Upload Speed: Higher than 1,000 kbps Latency: Less than 100 ms
• Text communications (email, instant messaging)
• Web browsing • File sharing
(low-res video) • Web conferencing • Social networking
(basic text only) • Stream basic video/ music
• File sharing (high-res video) • IP Telephony • ERP / CRM • Basic gaming (single player) • Basic video chat
(low-res video) • IP audio conferencing • Basic video conferencing
(low-res video) • Advanced social networking
(multimedia/interactivity) • HD video streaming
• HD Industrial design collaboration • Advanced gaming
(multi player) • Advanced video chat
(high-res video) • Advanced file sharing
(super high-res video) • HD audio conferencing • HD video conferencing
(high-res video) • Stream super HD video
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Global Cloud Readiness Business & Consumer Network Requirements for Concurrent Apps
Basic Cloud Apps Concurrency Bucket Network Requirements: Download Speed: ~1900 kbps Upload Speed: ~600 kbps Latency: Above 160 ms
Intermediate Cloud Apps Concurrency Bucket
Network Requirements: Download Speed: ~7,000 kbps Upload Speed: ~2,600 kbps Latency: 159 - 100 ms
Advanced Cloud Apps Concurrency Bucket
Network Requirements: Download Speed: ~21,000 kbps Upload Speed: ~9,000 kbps Latency: Less than 100 ms
• Text communications (email, instant messaging)
• Web browsing • File sharing
(low-res video) • Web conferencing • Social networking
(basic text only) • Stream basic video/ music
• File sharing (high-res video) • IP Telephony • ERP / CRM • Basic gaming (single player) • Basic video chat
(low-res video) • IP audio conferencing • Basic video conferencing
(low-res video) • Advanced social networking
(multimedia/interactivity) • HD video streaming
• HD Industrial design collaboration • Advanced gaming
(multi player) • Advanced video chat
(high-res video) • Advanced file sharing
(super high-res video) • HD audio conferencing • HD video conferencing
(high-res video) • Stream super HD video
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Fixed Networks Upload/ Download Speeds
Source: Ookla Speedtest.net Net Index
Lithuania
Romania Bulgaria Latvia
Czech Rep.
Moldova
Hungary Slovakia
Ukraine Russia
Estonia Slovenia Poland Macedonia
Turkey Georgia
Serbia Croatia
Montenegro
Armenia
Bosnia & H.
Belarus
Azerbaijan
Albania
-‐
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
-‐ 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000
Average Uploa
d Speed (kbp
s)
Average Download Speed (kbps)
Other Countries Central and Eastern Europe
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Fixed Speeds + Latency: CEE Countries
Source: Ookla Speedtest.net Net Index
Lithuania
Romania Bulgaria Latvia
Czech Rep.
Moldova
Hungary Slovakia
Ukraine Russia
Estonia Slovenia Poland Macedonia
Turkey Georgia
Serbia Croatia Montenegro
Armenia
Bosnia & H.
Belarus
Azerbaijan Albania -‐
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
-‐ 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000
Average Uploa
d Speed (kbp
s)
Average Download Speed (kbps)
Less than 100ms 100ms -‐ 159ms
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Fixed Speeds + Latency: CEE Countries
Source: Ookla Speedtest.net Net Index
Lithuania
Romania Bulgaria Latvia
Czech Rep.
Moldova
Hungary Slovakia
Ukraine Russia
Estonia Slovenia Poland Macedonia
Turkey Georgia
Serbia Croatia Montenegro
Armenia
Bosnia & H.
Belarus
Azerbaijan Albania -‐
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
-‐ 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000
Average Uploa
d Speed (kbp
s)
Average Download Speed (kbps)
Less than 100ms 100ms -‐ 159ms
Slovenia Ave download: 7.2mbps Ave upload: 4.2mbps Ave latency: 50ms
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Fixed Speeds + Latency: CEE Countries
Source: Ookla Speedtest.net Net Index
Lithuania
Romania Bulgaria Latvia
Czech Rep.
Moldova
Hungary Slovakia
Ukraine Russia
Estonia Slovenia Poland Macedonia
Turkey Georgia
Serbia Croatia Montenegro
Armenia
Bosnia & H.
Belarus
Azerbaijan Albania -‐
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
-‐ 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000
Average Uploa
d Speed (kbp
s)
Average Download Speed (kbps)
Less than 100ms 100ms -‐ 159ms
Croatia Ave download: 4.2mbps Ave upload: 0.7mbps Ave latency: 62ms
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Fixed Speeds + Latency: CEE Countries
Source: Ookla Speedtest.net Net Index
Lithuania
Romania Bulgaria Latvia
Czech Rep.
Moldova
Hungary Slovakia
Ukraine Russia
Estonia Slovenia Poland Macedonia
Turkey Georgia
Serbia Croatia Montenegro
Armenia
Bosnia & H.
Belarus
Azerbaijan Albania -‐
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
-‐ 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000
Average Uploa
d Speed (kbp
s)
Average Download Speed (kbps)
Less than 100ms 100ms -‐ 159ms
Bulgaria Ave download: 19.0mbps Ave upload: 12.2mbps Ave latency: 35ms
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Fixed Speeds + Latency: CEE Countries
Source: Ookla Speedtest.net Net Index
Lithuania
Romania Bulgaria Latvia
Czech Rep.
Moldova
Hungary Slovakia
Ukraine Russia
Estonia Slovenia Poland Macedonia
Turkey Georgia
Serbia Croatia Montenegro
Armenia
Bosnia & H.
Belarus
Azerbaijan Albania -‐
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
-‐ 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000
Average Uploa
d Speed (kbp
s)
Average Download Speed (kbps)
Less than 100ms 100ms -‐ 159ms
Bosnia & H. Ave download: 2.9mbps Ave upload: 0.6mbps Ave latency: 69ms
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Fixed Speeds + Latency: CEE Countries
Source: Ookla Speedtest.net Net Index
Lithuania
Romania Bulgaria Latvia
Czech Rep.
Moldova
Hungary Slovakia
Ukraine Russia
Estonia Slovenia Poland Macedonia
Turkey Georgia
Serbia Croatia Montenegro
Armenia
Bosnia & H.
Belarus
Azerbaijan Albania -‐
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
-‐ 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000
Average Uploa
d Speed (kbp
s)
Average Download Speed (kbps)
Less than 100ms 100ms -‐ 159ms
Albania Ave download: 2.6mbps Ave upload: 1.0mbps Ave latency: 102ms
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Fixed Speeds + Latency: CEE Countries
Source: Ookla Speedtest.net Net Index
Lithuania
Romania Bulgaria Latvia
Czech Rep.
Moldova
Hungary Slovakia
Ukraine Russia
Estonia Slovenia Poland Macedonia
Turkey Georgia
Serbia Croatia Montenegro
Armenia
Bosnia & H.
Belarus
Azerbaijan Albania -‐
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
-‐ 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000
Average Uploa
d Speed (kbp
s)
Average Download Speed (kbps)
Less than 100ms 100ms -‐ 159ms
Macedonia Ave download: 5.6mbps Ave upload: 2.1mbps Ave latency: 60ms
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Fixed Speeds + Latency: CEE Countries
Source: Ookla Speedtest.net Net Index
Lithuania
Romania Bulgaria Latvia
Czech Rep.
Moldova
Hungary Slovakia
Ukraine Russia
Estonia Slovenia Poland Macedonia
Turkey Georgia
Serbia Croatia Montenegro
Armenia
Bosnia & H.
Belarus
Azerbaijan Albania -‐
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
-‐ 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000
Average Uploa
d Speed (kbp
s)
Average Download Speed (kbps)
Less than 100ms 100ms -‐ 159ms
Serbia Ave download: 4.2mbps Ave upload: 0.9mbps Ave latency: 59ms
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Fixed Speeds + Latency: CEE Countries
Source: Ookla Speedtest.net Net Index
Lithuania
Romania Bulgaria Latvia
Czech Rep.
Moldova
Hungary Slovakia
Ukraine Russia
Estonia Slovenia Poland Macedonia
Turkey Georgia
Serbia Croatia Montenegro
Armenia
Bosnia & H.
Belarus
Azerbaijan Albania -‐
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
-‐ 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000
Average Uploa
d Speed (kbp
s)
Average Download Speed (kbps)
Less than 100ms 100ms -‐ 159ms
Montenegro Ave download: 3.5mbps Ave upload: 0.7mbps Ave latency: 75ms
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Fixed Speeds + Latency: CEE Countries
Source: Ookla Speedtest.net Net Index
Lithuania
Romania Bulgaria Latvia
Czech Rep.
Moldova
Hungary Slovakia
Ukraine Russia
Estonia Slovenia Poland Macedonia
Turkey Georgia
Serbia Croatia Montenegro
Armenia
Bosnia & H.
Belarus
Azerbaijan Albania -‐
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
-‐ 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000
Average Uploa
d Speed (kbp
s)
Average Download Speed (kbps)
Less than 100ms 100ms -‐ 159ms
Romania Ave download: 22.9mbps Ave upload: 11.8mbps Ave latency: 39ms
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Mobile Networks Upload/ Download Speeds
Source: Ookla Speedtest.net Net Index
Hungary
Russia
Ukraine
Romania
Poland
Turkey
0 200 400 600 800
1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000
Average Uploa
d Speed (kbp
s)
Average Download Speed (kbps)
Other Countries Central and Eastern Europe
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Mobile Speeds + Latency: CEE Countries
Source: Ookla Speedtest.net Net Index
Russia
Ukraine
Romania
Poland
Turkey Hungary
0 200 400 600 800
1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000
Average Uploa
d Speed (kbp
s)
Average Download Speed (kbps)
Above 160ms 100 to 159ms Below 100ms
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Summary
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Summary and Implications
More users, each using more bandwidth Each user will have more/more powerful devices Accelerated smartphone adoption Video and cloud driving demand and consumption 4G will dramatically increase data consumption Advanced Cloud Apps Require Advanced Networks-low latency Off-load increasingly important—small cell complement Need more Spectrum – Licensed and Unlicensed Need fibre for backhaul, middle mile and aggregation in access Networks becoming heterogeneous; need to be “fit for purpose”
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Cisco VNI Mobile Forecast; 2012–2017 Get more info—see Tools and Resources
www.cisco.com/go/vni [email protected]
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Thank you.