2
Natural disasters are extreme geophysical events,
biological processes and widespread
technological accidents
Danger may affect:
People Properties Environment
3
Major natural disasters and anthropogenic accidents are:
Car accidents
Accidents with chemical
compounds
Hunger
Cyclones, hurricanes,
typhoons, storms
Tsunami
Epidemics
Insect invasions
Extreme cold or heat
periods
Avalanches and landslides
Displacement or
movement of people
Flooding
Public unrest
Drought
Fires
Volcanic eruptions
Earthquakes
4
According to the probability of death cases
Damage by natural disasters (1980 - 2008)
Number of
disasters Number of
dead Number of
victims Economic losses,
billions EUR
Drought 410 558 565 1 551 455 112 54, 745
Storms 1 211 402 911 496 639 560 379,460
Earthquakes 706 385 630 136 333 515 249, 771
Tsunami 18 229 551 2 481 879 7,441
Floods 2 887 195 843 2 809 481 489 282,779
Epidemics 1 039 183 278 19 411 394 ?
Heat waves 126 89 889 4 614 411 22,261
Vulcano eruptions 140 25 197 4 080 791 2,042
Landslides 366 20 008 7 031 523 0,004
Tornado 182 4 780 12 710 204 22, 417
Avalanches 73 3 532 69 637 0,626
Fires 294 1 666 5 766 092 30, 453
Invasions of insects 75 0 2 200 0,164
6
Top 10 countries by number of reported events in 2011
7
The number of reported natural disasters in 2012 (357) showed an increase of 2.3% compared to 2011’s number(349). Less people were killed by disasters in 2012 (9,655) compared to 2011 (31,331) and to the 2002-2011 annual average (106 816). This number of people reported killed is also the lowest since 2009, when 10,885 people were reported killed and is far below the peaks of 2010 (297,598), the year of Haiti’s earthquake, 2004 (241,698) year of the Indian Ocean tsunami and 2008 (235,293) when cyclone Nargis hit Myanmar. The number of reported victims in 2012 (124.5million) was the lowest since 2006,when 147.4million victims were registered, and 53.5% below the decade’s annual average of 267.9 million victims. The estimated economic losses from natural disasters in 2012 (US$ 157.3billion) were 9.7% above the damages annual average for years 2002-2011. Damages in 2012 were the fifth highest since 2002, but far below 2011 (2012 US$ 356.6 billion), year of the tsunami in Japan and the large flood in Thailand and 2005 (2012 US$ 253.4 billion), year of the hurricane Katrina. Compared to 2011, the higher number of reported natural disasters in 2012 was mainly due to a greater number of climatological disasters and extreme winter conditions and cold waves in Eastern, Southern and Western countries in Europe and some countries in Central and Southern Asia. The lower number of victims in 2012, compared to 2011, is observed for all disasters types except for tropical cyclones whose number of victims knew an increase of almost 20%. The drop in the reported number of people killed by natural disasters in 2012, compared to the 2011 is mostly explained by a lower number of deaths from geophysical, hydrological and meteorological disasters. The increase in damages in 2012 is mostly attributable to tropical storms and droughts. Three disasters, the hurricane Sandy in the United States (US$ 50 billion), the drought in South-Western and Mid-Western regions of the United States (US$ 20 billion) and the two earthquakes in Ferrare region in Italy (US$ 15.8 billion) accounted for 54% of all damages. Disaster trends are greatly influenced by single, high-impacts events.
How different was 2012 ?
8
Natural disaster impacts by disaster sub-group:
2012 versus 2002-2011annual average
9
Percent share of reported economic damages
by disaster sub-group and continent in 2012
10
The number of reported disasters in Europe (65) was above the annual average disaster occurrence from 2002 to 2011(56). This is largely due to cold waves and extreme winter conditions which affected most European countries in the beginning of the year. The number of such climatological disasters (45) is almost three times superior to its annual average for years 2002-2011 (17).
Inversely, 2012 shows a strong decrease in the number of hydrological disasters (16), compared to an annual average of 23. Such decrease is still more pronounced for meteorological disasters: only one was reported in 2012 –the lowest number ever reported since years 1990 -compared to an annual average of 14 in years 2002-2011.Therefore, compared to the previous decade, 2012 appears, in Europe, as an atypical year, with disasters occurring in proportions distinctly different from those of previous years.
In 2012, the decrease in the number of victims (0.58 million) compared to their 2002-2011 annual average (0.66 million) is largely explained by the decrease of their number in meteorological disasters (-99.7% in 2012 compared to the 2002-2011 annual average) and in hydrological disasters (-62.2%). In contrast, compared to annual average of the years 2002-2011, the number of victims of geophysical disasters increased of 76.6% and of climatological disasters of 68.2%. Two earthquakes in Emilia-Romagna and in the Ferrare region made 14,367 and 11,057 victims, respectively. Extreme winter conditions made 230,005 victims in Albania and 18,243 in Serbia. Cold waves made 87,612 victims in Ukraine, 70,010 in Serbia and 10,351 in Bosnia-Hercegovenia. These five climatological disasters account for 71.7% of the total of victims of disasters in Europe.
Whereas per year on average from 2002to 2011,hydrological disasters took the largest share of total disaster victims in Europe (41.5%), followed by climatological (40.3%), meteorological (16.0%) and geophysical (2.2%) disasters, in 2012the picture is different. Climatological disasters took the largest share (77.6%) and hydrological disasters took a share of 18.0%, only followed by geophysical disasters with 4.4% and meteorolological disasters with 0.1%.
Damages from natural disasters in Europe in 2012 (US$ 24.2 billion) were the highest of the decade, more than two times the annual average damages for 2002-2011 (US$ 11.7billion), largely explained by the cost associated with the Ferrare region earthquake in Italia (US$ 15.8 billion)which is the highest cost ever reported in Europe for a geophysical disaster since the year 1990 and is thirty times higher than the 2002-2011 annual damages average for such disasters.
The costs associated with the other Italian earthquake are, actually, not reported. Damages from climatological disasters (US$ 4.2 billion) are 1.5 higher than the 2002-2011 annual damages average for these disasters and are explained by damages from three droughts in Ukraine (US$ 1.7 billion), Italia (US$ 1.2 billion) and Russia (US$ 1.1 billion). Damages from hydrological disasters (US$ 4.2 billion) are close to their 2002-2011 annual average (US$ 4.7 billion) and are largely explained by four floods in the United Kingdom which cost a total of US$ 2.9 billion or 69% of all damages caused by hydrological disasters.
The damage arising from the only meteorological disaster reported in Europe in 2012 is directly attributable to a tornado which occurred in Poland and cost US$ 0.006 billion.
Europe, 2012
11
Natural disasters, the annual average economic loss due to natural disasters, 1980-2008
12
In subsequent decades, the increase of the global temperature will cause significant
climate changes that
will be bigger and stronger than ever in the past 10 000 years
The hardest will suffer those countries which existence is highly dependent on intensive use of
natural resources
13
World population in 2011 exceeded 7 billion people, mainly due to the population
growth in developing countries
Urbanization - migration of population from rural to urban areas, caused by depletion
of agricultural conditions and due to global economic forces, resulted with excessive growth
of urban population
14
Media aware
Dead
Injuries
Homeless
Disrupted
Tax payers
Inconvenienced
Aid donors
Region
Place of disaster
Country
World
Impact of natural disasters affect a wide range of persons not only direct victims in the disaster area
15
Environmental risk studies become more
complex, but also narrower and more detailed in some subsectors
Natural scientists are focused
more on the natural
processes, the nature of
developments in the mechanism and frequency
Social sciences are looking for
answers exploring public
reaction and behaviours in
critical circumstances
But decision-makers need real
recommendations for solving a
problem rather than just a theoretical
discussion
?
16
Even if a considerable damage is caused to property or the
environment, direct danger to people lives is
perceived as the most dangerous effect
People's vulnerability and sensitivity is often caused by a lack of emergency management
17
Natural and anthropogenic accidents may be
classified by the inducing factors:
Atmospheric factors
Hydrologic factors
Geological factors
Biological factors
Technological factors
Social violence
Complicated danger factors
18
Tangible effects are those for which it is possible to estimate losses in monetary
terms, such as the damaged property to restore the necessary resources
Undetectable effects – actual effects, but impossible to determine in monetary
expression:
loss of life can be detectable medically and legally, but economical or financial loss
value calculation is very complex
Direct effects are effects
that appear immediately after the disaster
Indirect effects appear later and
sometimes can be difficult to identify and link up with a disaster
Natural disasters can cause direct
and indirect effects:
19
Natural disasters recurrence time is the average
time between two following natural disasters
Most natural hazards can be measured by some physical parameters
within a specific scale
20
The most dangerous places are around the tectonic fractures - usually in high mountains or on coastal areas
About the half of the world's population is living in 60 km
coastal area near the river deltas or at the seaside
About 25% of the world population are exposed to natural
disasters, the majority of them live in developing countries
21
Sensitivity is a critical factor, that can be
increased by people poverty, age, health and human physical abilities
Well equipped societies and families with access to
resources can more easily survive if natural disasters occur
Access to the information and social communication
networks also is very important
22
Earthquakes and volcanic eruptions occur
mainly around the borders of the
lithosphere plates
Lithosphere plates are from 6 km to 200 km thick, solid Earth's outer shell that consists of different sized boards, which are:
In some places moving away from each other – divergence
Other moving towards one another – convergence
Or slipping one beneath the other or one moving along the second
Convergence Divergence
23
San Andreas fault in California
25
Earthquake strength can be measured using the Richter scale:
earthquakes, power is expressed in terms of the size of the output
energy, which can be measured by seismograph amplitude ratio scale
For earthquake intensity determination Mercalli scale is used, with the
scores from I to XII determine the impact the earthquake has had on
people, buildings and the environment
Minor: up to magnitude 4
Little: magnitude 4-5
Harmful: magnitude 5-6
Destructive: magnitude 6-7 balles Strong: magnitude 7-8
Disruptive: more as magnitude 8
26
Earthquakes
primary effects are
associated with the
earth shake, and
vertical or horizontal
ground movements
This leads to a strong
impact on people and
structures
Secondary effects of
earthquakes are
associated with rock
mass movement,
such as rock falls and
landslides
Earthquakes are characterized by primary and secondary effects:
Tsunami
On December 26, 2004 India ocean earthquake (9.1 magnitude) with epicentre at
Sumatra, Indonesia aroused huge tsunami wave, which killed approximately 230 000
persons in 11 countries, mainly in Indonesia, Sri Lanka, India and Thailand.
Tsunami, India ocean, 26.12.2004.
29
30
Flooding is irregular water level rise at any time and
place, which occurs in floodplain and other areas
Due to the origin of nature there can be separated
floods and flooding:
Flood is a river water treatment
phase characterized by the seasonal
largest watering that occurs yearly
or seasonally, and usually at the floodplain areas
Flooding can be characterized by
intermittent (at any time and place)
and a sharp but temporary rise of
water level, which occurs during floodplain or other areas
Flooding or flood is usually associated with rivers, and
less with lakes or other water bodies
North Sea
October 11. - 12.,
1634.
32
Flood risk can also
be a result of
human economic activities
Extreme flood situations is often
associated with heavy rain, which
causes storms, or rapid melting of snow
In some cases flooding occur
when natural or man-made dams are broken
Earthquakes in the
ocean can cause catastrophic
floods, by releasing of massive tsunami waves
Threat of flooding:
Flooding in urban areas present more difficulties
because of natural ground surface is built with a water-
tight materials
33
Flooding primary physical effects
Secondary effects result in decrease of water quality
Flooding effects can be primary and
secondary:
However, flooding may also give beneficial effects on river ecosystems –
by groundwater recharge and increase of soil fertility by bringing fertile mud into soils
34
In Europe flooding occurs
mostly in central and southern
part and is caused mostly by
rainfalls and may affects about
1.5% of the population
However, 70% of the world
flooding occurs in Asia
Floods in Bangladesh
36
In flooding risk areas risk assessment is very important
therefore the flooding frequency should be detected over
a specified period
Flooding hazard mitigation can be implemented in various ways:
Betterments, creating of
channels, straightening of river beds etc.
Creating of wetlands, which
work as water sponges during flooding
Flooding prevention barriers
helps to keep and store a certain
volume of flooding waters to
dissipate later steadily
Building of permanent or
temporary embankments
along the river banks certain in places
37
Territory of Latvia is divided into four river basin
management areas - Venta, Lielupe, Daugava and Gauja
38
Daugava River flood is seasonal, mainly formed in the spring, when
snow melts, rivers are rising water levels and ice jams.
Strong wind affects the water flow from the Gulf of Riga - water can be
blown into the Daugava River, raising the water level and threatening the city of Riga.
39
Biological factors or agents, which can lead to disasters:
Different nature of the diseases
and epidemics or pandemics
Undesirable, harmful or noxious
plant and animal invasions
Insect invasion with its
consequences on people,
environment and agriculture
Predatory animal attacks
Fish, crustaceans and molluscs
pollution
Forest fires
Bacteria Viruses Fungi Protozoan
Algae Plants Insects Animals
Biological agents can cause:
40
Epidemic expands
when in the
population appears
more and more new
cases of certain
disease in a short period of time
If an epidemic is covering
very large areas, it is called a pandemic
Simple diseases
that are a little
variable but rather
in a small scale,
can be called as endemic
Infectious diseases are characterized by several specific terms:
Nowadays, the world is concerned
about the wide spread of such
diseases as malaria,
tuberculosis, influenza strains
Malaria
41
Anopheles albimanus mosquito
feeding on a human arm
An estimated 655,000 people died from malaria in
2010, a decrease from the 781,000 who died in 2009,
according to the World Health organisation’s 2011
World Malaria Report, accounting for 2.23% of
deaths worldwide.
However, a 2012 meta-study from the University of
Washington and University of Queensland
estimates that malaria deaths are significantly
higher - the study estimates that 1,238,000 people
died from malaria in 2010.
42
Fire is the uncontrolled spread of fire which may
occur in populated areas or in natural areas
Characteristic parameters of fires are:
Distribution speed
Quantity of material burning
Topography
Geographic location
Cause of the outbreak
Weather conditions
43
Adapting occur after fires
including the appearance of
plant physical protection from
heat and increased growth
after the fires
Fires cause considerable
damage to people as well
as for property and material assets
Fires can be characterized by both, negative and positive effects:
Fires sometimes give the benefits,
especially for some species in areas
where the conditions for growth and
proliferation can only occur due to fires
44
Natural causes of fires are:
Large fires can affect both, climate and weather, they
create a regional and even global pollution, fires also
release greenhouse gas emissions
However, many fires occur from human inattention
(dropped cigarette, spark from engine) or from
deliberate abuse
Lightning
Volcanic eruptions
Sparks rock spark
Spontaneous ignition
Smoldering of underground coal or peat layers
45
An important element is the rapid forest fire detection
that can be realized by observation, as follows:
Satellite and aeral monitoring allows to
obtain information, as well as provide insight
into the events of a very broad and even low-risk areas
Forest observations from towers
equipped with surveillance equipment and communication systems
Observations from space
46
Heat periods are long periods of hot weather which expression is dependent on site-specific climatic conditions
Strong heat periods which are very
rare and can lead to:
Power supply disruption
from the increased air conditioning use
Catastrophic
damage to
agricultural crops
Death of thousands
of people from
hyperthermia or overheating
47
In summer of 2003, over the western Europe was spread a
stable anticyclone and temperature contributed to the increase of 20-30% above average
48
Drought can cause the following effects:
Massive people migration
Famine, poverty and diseases
Decline in electricity production,
Drastically reduce crop yields
and livestock survival
Sand and dust storms, causing
desertification, soil erosion
Damage to both terrestrial and
aquatic ecosystems and species
Social unrest and even lead to
war for natural resources, food
and water
49
1973
2001
1997 1987
Lake Chad in Africa from 1965 has been reduced
for 95%
50
Storms occur when rapidly rising or falling atmospheric
pressure areas are crossed by large cyclone or tornado, as
well during a local or frontal a lightning storms
Storm is a very strong wind for which the cumulative
speed over 10 minutes is at least 24 m/s and gusts can
reach up to 100 m/s (360 km/h)
51
Tornado is a devastating and rapidly tapered atmospheric
vortex with the rain and the storm, which usually occurs
when a cool, dry air mass meet the warm, moist air mass,
forcing the warm air to rise to the top suddenly
Hurricane reminds huge gyratory plate
with a diameter can reach up to 500 km,
but in rare cases up to 1000 km
Hurricanes never ! occur over land, just over the
sea or ocean in tropical zone, where
temperatures in the upper layers is at least +27 °C
* Character Wind speed; km/h * Character Wind speed; km/h
Tropical
depression 0–62 3. category 178–209
Tropiskā vētra 63–117 4. category 210–249
1. category 119–153 5. category ≥250
2. category 154–177 Have not
information Saffir–Simpson hurricane scale
Hurricane “Katrina” in 2005, USA
54
During the storms, strong air mass collisions cause raindrops
and hail grain collisions in the clouds, creating an electrical
charge, resulting in huge fires spark – lightning
From the enormous heat that is
released as a result of lightning,
nearby air rapidly expands
causing thunder
Most typical type of lightning - lines
that spark discharges in the branches,
whose length is usually 2-3 km