North Dakota Pipeline AuthorityJustin J. Kringstad
December 30, 2010
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December 29, 2010: 156 Drilling Rigs
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North Dakota Crude Oil
Prediction is very difficult,
especially if it's about the future.
-Niels Bohr
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ND
Sw
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t P
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/ba
rre
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Ba
rre
ls p
er
Da
yNorth Dakota Oil Production and Price
History Bakken - Three Forks P10 Bakken - Three Forks P50
Bakken - Three Forks P90 $/Barrel History & DOE-EIA Projected $/Barrel P50
$/Barrel P10
Forecasting Williston Basin Oil Production, BOPD
Production forecast is for visual demonstration purposes only and shouldnot be considered accurate for any near or long term planning.
Today
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Forecasting Williston Basin Oil Production, BOPD
Production forecast is for visual demonstration purposes only and shouldnot be considered accurate for any near or long term planning.
Today
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Challenges*
1) Moving oil out of the
Williston Basin
2) Moving oil within the
Williston Basin
*Modified from Bridger and Belle Fourche Pipelines
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1
9
58,000 BOPD
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Current - 118,000 BOPD
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Phase VI: 161,500 BOPD
Up to 185,000 BOPDQ1 2011
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1313
Rail Transportation
EOG – Stanley, ND
Dakota Transport Solutions – New Town, ND
Others Include:MinotDoreStampedeDonnybrook
Williston Basin Oil Production & Export Capacity, BOPD
Production forecast is for visual demonstration purposes only and shouldnot be considered accurate for any near or long term planning.
Today
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The future starts today,
not tomorrow.
-Pope John Paul II
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Several Exciting Developments For Post 2010 Crude Oil Transport
Enbridge Bakken Expansion Program
Keystone XL Marketlink
True Co.’s Baker 300
Plains Bakken North
Unit Train Development16
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Bakken Pipeline Expansion
Saskatchewan Manitoba
Enbridge Pipelines(North Dakota)
North Dakota MinnesotaMontana
ReserveGrenora
Alexander
BEAVERLODGE
Stanley
Lignite
BERTHOLD
Minot
CLEARBROOK
Trenton
CROMER
WeyburnSteelman
Midale
Alida
Portal Link
Virden
EPI Mainline
Plaza
Dunn
McGregor
Bakken Pipeline Expansion Project:Berthold to Cromer
SORTI
Phase 7 Beaver Lodge Looping Project:Beaver Lodge to Berthold
EPND Phase 7 Gathering Projects: SORTI, Dunn, Plaza and McGregor
Proposed TransCanada Marketlink
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• Binding Open Season Complete
• Q1 2013 Proposed Startup
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Proposed Quintana BakkenLink
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Capacity:100,000 BOPD
Proposed Startup:Q1 – 2013
Size: 304 Miles, 10”-16”
Open Season Started: September 27th
True Co.’s Proposed “Baker 300”
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Butte Pipeline CapacityCurrent: 118,000 BOPDQ1 2011: 150,000 BOPD
Q1 2012: 200,000 BOPD (w/Loop)
Keystone XL InterconnectQ1 2013: 100,000 BOPD
Plains Bakken North Pipeline
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Proposed Capacity50,000-75,000 BOPD
Q4 2012
New 103 Miles, 12” PipelineReverse Wascana Pipeline
$160-$200 Million
Williston Basin Oil Production & Export Capacity, BOPD
Production forecast is for visual demonstration purposes only and shouldnot be considered accurate for any near or long term planning.
*Projects still in the proposed or internal review process
Today
Pipeline Transportation Only
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Williston Basin Oil Production & Export Capacity, BOPD
Production forecast is for visual demonstration purposes only and shouldnot be considered accurate for any near or long term planning.
*Projects still in the proposed or internal review process
Today
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North Dakota Truck Imports/Exports
Information collected through the United States International Trade Commission’s Interactive Tariff and Trade DataWeb
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ay
Crude Exports
Crude Imports
*Modified from Bridger and Belle Fourche Pipelines
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Challenges*
1) Moving oil out of the
Williston Basin
2) Moving oil within the
Williston Basin
Reducing Truck Traffic
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Bridger Four BearsQ1 2011
60,000 BOPDApprox 300 Truckloads/Day
Enbridge SORTI/DunnAnticipated Q2 2012Up to 100,000 BOPD
Approx 500 Truckloads/Day
Rangeland COLT Hub and Pipeline
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Gathering, Storage, & Transportation
Tie into Enbridge & Tesoro(20 Mile - 8” - 40,000 BOPD)
Anticipated Dec 2011
210,000 Barrels of Tankage
Rail up to 27,000 BOPD initially (Expandable up to 60,000)
Natural Gas Projects
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Natural Gas Challenges
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ND Gas Gathering Statistics
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Wells With Gas Sales
Wells Without Gas Sales
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$2.2 - $2.5 BILLION In the Next 1-3 Yrs 32
New or Expanding Gas Plants
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Hess Tioga Gas PlantCurrent: 110 MMCFDQ4 2012: 250 MMCFD
ONEOK Garden Creek PlantQ4 2011: 100 MMCFD
Hiland Partners Watford City PlantQ1 2011: 50 MMCFD
Saddle Butte PipelineQ4 2010: 45 MMCFD
ONEOK Stateline I PlantQ3 2012: 100 MMCFD
Raw Natural Gas Processing Plant
Consumer Quality Natural
Gas
Methane and Ethane
Propane
Butane
Natural Gasoline
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Natural Gas ProcessingCurrent Status
Natural GasLiquids
“Y-Grade” if left
fractionated
Raw Natural Gas Processing Plant
Consumer Quality Natural
GasMethane
Ethane
Propane
Butane
Natural Gasoline
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Natural Gas ProcessingWith Ethane Extraction
Natural GasLiquids
“Y-Grade” if left
fractionated
North Dakota Natural Gas Liquids
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Bar
rels
Pe
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Ethane
Y-Grade
Natural Gasoline
Butane
Propane
Vantage Pipeline: Ethane
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43,000 – 57,000 BPD Proposed Startup:
Q3 – 2012Size: 430 Miles, 10”or 12”
Approx. $290 Million
ONEOK Bakken Pipeline: Y-Grade
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60,000 – 110,000 BPD Proposed Startup:
Q1/Q2 – 2013Size:
525-615 Miles, 12”Approx. $700 Million
Refining Study
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Refining Study
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NDPA Monthly Webinars
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North Dakota Pipeline Authority
600 E. Boulevard Ave. Dept. 405Bismarck, ND 58505-0840
Phone: (701)220-6227Fax: (701)328-2820
E-mail: [email protected]
Website: www.pipeline.nd.gov
Thank You!