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CLIMATE CHANGE – reason for hope
• Growing up 1940-62
• Science years 1962-2006
• Film making years – 2006-13
• Observations over last decade
• Reason for hope– Science clear on need for action now
– Technology making renewable energy a better economic option
– Society globally, nationally, locally is responding – NZ’s opportu ity
• Time to find out what you are doing here in Nelson
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Waikato dairy farm 1940-56
Koromatua farm 1940-56
Transantarctic Mountains 1962-2003
King Country caving 1955-61
Offshore coring 1972-99King Country 1956-62 Canaan 1960-62
Transantarctic Mountains 1963-90
Mt Fridtjof Nansen +
+ C Surprise
Mt Wade +
+ Mt Betty
NZARP Nov-Dec 63
Axel Heiberg Gl
+ Mt McKellarMt Sirius +
+ Graphite Pk
USARP Nov 66-Jan 67
safe landing site
+ Mt
Kirkpatrick
Features from 1966-68• Beacon-Ferrar stratigraphy and maps• Extent/nature of Pagoda Tillite• Tillite on Mt Sirius• Vertebrate find on Graphite Pk
Nov 67-Jan 68
NZARP Southern Party December 1963
Glomar Challenger in 1973 drilling into Ross Sea floor at 78°Sfinding that Antarctic glaciation began over 25 million years ago
Nature, 1978271, 321-324
Rafter 1957 ODT
Bull 1962 OSU
Offshore coring 1972-99
C
R
P
Cape Roberts Project 1997-99 Earth’s temperature through time
ANDRILL
Alex Pyne
Peter Barrett, Antarctic Research Centre
Victoria University of Wellington
The second great climate shift in the
last 65 million years?
CLIMATE CHANGE AND GOVERNANCE
Te Papa, Wellington, New Zealand
March 24-26 2006
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THIN ICE – the Inside Story of Climate Science”
Thursday 26 May, 2016, VUW School of Languages and Literature and the NZ Centre for Literary Translation
A David Sington/Simon Lamb filmA University of Oxford-Victoria University of Wellington-DOX London Production
Science Documentary Project
with special thanks to the 40 scientists who took part in the project,
and the Thin Ice Advisory Board
Concept: Peter Barrett & Simon Lamb, Wellington and Oxford
Production:
Simon Lamb, Director/Producer/Photographer David Sington, Producer/Director, London
Catherine Fitzgerald, Co-Producer, Wellington
Peter Barrett, Executive Producer, Wellington Philip England, Executive Producer, Oxford
David Fairhead, Editor, London Philip Sheppard Music, London
Website and distribution:
James Franklin, Assemble.com Suzanne Harle, Green Planet Films, CA
Suze Keith, Marketing, Wellington Gary Ward, VicLink, Wellington
2006-13
Map of world with filming locations
(use later to show Earth Day screening locations
www.primap.com
Filming locations
~40 scientists
Mostly 2007-2009
120 hours of interviews
Run time 73 mins
~40 short video clips
GLOBAL SCREENING EARTH DAY April 22, 2013 - 200 sites on all 7 continents ~100,000 internet views from 100 countries
- subtitles now in Chinese, English, French, German, Italian, Malaylam, Maori, Polish, Portuguese, Spanish, Russian
2015 - 56 min version made for American Public TVover 400 broadcast events across the US
PARIS December 2015
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SITUATION: CO2 still increasing by 2 ppm/year (cycle varies 8 ppm/year)
though emissions flattened out in 2014 – next slide.
Slide: Tim Naish, ATCM talk, Beijing, May 2017
Annual average CO2 levels rose
from 394 ppm in mid 2013
to 404 ppm in mid 2017.
Fossil CO2 persists for a long time~40% projected to remain after 6000 years
cf lifetime for methane ~12 years
2000 2100 2200 3000 4000 5000 6000 CE
1000 GtC - safe li it – Allen, Nature, 2009
Montenegro et al. 2007 Geophysical Research Letters
CO2 emissions may have peaked but need to be zero by 2050.TRENDS COMPARING COUNTRIES OTHER GHGs
www.carbonbrief.org/what-global-co2-emissions-2016-mean-climate-change
To include CO2
equivalent from CH4
and NO2,
add ~20% for world.
add 100% for NZ
(blue dots to left)
CO2–76%, CH4–16% rest–8%
Coal peaks but oil, gas rising US 4x, EU-China-NZ 2x global average
Total
Chart Title
Per capita CO2 emissions (tC yr-1)
BUSINESS AS USUAL
EXTREME EMISSIONS REDUCTION
DeConto & Pollard 2016 Nature
But new computer projections show we can avert catastrophic
Antarctic ice sheet melt with extreme emissions reduction
GLOBAL SEA LEVEL RISE
RCP 8.5
RCP 2.6
2050
0.41
0.24
2100
1.70m
0.50m
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10
SLR(m)
5
0
Global Action• Dec 2015 Paris Agreement - signed Apr/in force Nov 2016
• Anti-Trump response to withdrawal in June, 2017
- California and New York committed to pick up the slack
- Mayors of >7400 cities globally o ed Tru p’s decision on Paris Accord
will spur greater local efforts to combat climate change.
- 19 out of the G-20 nations reaffirmed their commitment to Paris Accord
• India plans nearly 60% of electricity capacity from non-fossil fuels
by 2027. No new fossil fuel plants needed - Guardian, 22/12/2016.
• Global investment in renewables twice fossil fuels - Bloomberg 6/4/2016
• Global renewable energy capacity boosted by a record amount in
2016 - delivered at a markedly lower cost – Guardian 6/6/2017
• Kentucky Coal Mining Museum now uses solar energy - John Oliver 18/6/2017
• OECD review of our environmental performance over last
de ade …argui g stro gly for the tra sitio to ards a lo -
carbon, greener economy
• GLOBE-NZ (cross-party group of 35 NZ MPs) released a report
Net Zero i NZ from VIVID Economics - first ever to provide
credible pathways for New Zealand to reduce its greenhouse
gas emissions to zero before 2100
New Zealand Action” est four eeks for li ate a tio i o er te years” (20 Mar-13 Apr)
• Generation Zero launched their campaign for a Zero
Carbon Act to be introduced to Parliament as binding
legislation – now supported by Young Nats.
• On Aug 15 Wise Response launched its Climate Consensus
Coalition Statement and Plan at Parliament for Zero Carbon
Emissions by 2050
NZ organisations for solutions
www.generationzero.org
a youth-led organization founded to provide solutions for NZ to cut carbon pollution.
www.wiseresponse.org
a broad coalition of NZers calling on our Parliament to comprehensively assess
imminent risks to New Zealand and to draw up plans to deal with them
www.ourclimatedeclaration.org.nz
This is not a petition. This is a Declaration of our commitment
to a different kind of future.
www.enviroschools.org.nz
Fostering a generation of people who instinctively think and act sustainably.
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• NZ’s is etter pla ed to ope ith glo al ar i g o account of its small size and location (mid-latitude,
surrounded by ocean)
• We have more energy alternatives and technology
options than almost any other country
Ne Zealand’s ad antages
SOLUTIONS (type/scale)
- adapt and mitigate (reduce C emissions to zero)
- national, local, personal
- Live simply
- Minimise waste
- Eat less dairy/beef
- Walk/bike/bus/train
- Plant trees
- Join a community group for local initiatives
SOLUTIONS (what you can do - discussion)
THANK YOU!
