Download - PhoCusWright - BTO 2015 - Murder by Numbers
Murder by Numbers Past predictions and present surprises
Presented at BTO 2015
3 December 2015
Lorraine Sileo
Senior Vice President, Research [email protected]
2 © 2015 Phocuswright Inc. All Rights Reserved.
About Phocuswright Phocuswright is the travel industry research authority on how travelers, suppliers and intermediaries connect.
Independent, rigorous and unbiased, Phocuswright delivers qualitative and quantitative research on the evolving dynamics that influence travel, tourism and hospitality distribution. Our marketplace intelligence is the industry standard for segmentation, sizing, forecasting, trends, analysis and consumer travel planning behavior. Every day around the world, senior executives, marketers, strategists and research professionals from all segments of the industry value chain use Phocuswright research for competitive advantage.
The company is headquartered in the United States with Asia Pacific operations based in India and local analysts on five continents.
Phocuswright is a wholly owned subsidiary of Northstar Travel Media, LLC.
3 © 2015 Phocuswright Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Copyright
All Phocuswright Inc. publica5ons are protected by copyright. It is illegal under U.S. federal law (17USC101 et seq.) to copy, fax or electronically distribute copyrighted material without explicit permission. You may not copy, reproduce, modify, republish, upload, post, transmit, or distribute, electronically or otherwise, any Phocuswright research report in any form or by any means without prior wriGen permission from Phocuswright Inc. Any unauthorized use of the materials may violate copyright, trademark, and other applicable laws and could result in criminal or civil penal5es. © Phocuswright
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Online Travel
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6 © 2014 Phocuswright Inc. All Rights Reserved.
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Destination Selection
Travel Shopping
Booking
25%
22%
14%
27% 22%
14%
80% 80%
79%
Desktop
Smartphone
Tablet
*UK, Germany, France Question: Please indicate which of the following travel-related activities you have done online using your desktop/laptop, smartphone or tablet in the past 12 months. Select all that apply for each row. Base: European travelers (UK, Germany, France) (N=4,120) Source: Phocuswright’s European Traveler Technology Survey 2015
Devices Used During Trip Planning Life Cycle European Markets* Combined
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Travel agents are dead
Everything will be booked
online Tour operators will fold
OTAs will rule the earth
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Dinner or Diner?
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2015
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2015 - Global
½ Trillion (US$) global online travel gross
bookings
US$90B Expedia, Priceline, TripAdvisor
market cap
+11% annual growth
37% of all travel is booked online
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2015 - Italy
€8 Billion online travel gross bookings
1+M Number of bookable beds
+10% annual online growth
€1.5 Billion mobile travel bookings
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Global Share of Priceline Group and Expedia
Note: *Excludes gross bookings for Egencia, Expedia’s corporate travel business. Includes Travelocity, Wotif and Orbitz in 2015. Source: Phocuswright Inc.
-
50
100
150
200
2011 2013 2015
Gro
ss B
ooki
ngs
(US$
B)
All other OTAs
PCLN
EXPE*
38% 47%
65%
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Percentage of U.S. Travelers Who Have Rented Private Accommodation, 2010-2014
Source: Phocuswright’s Rentals Rising: The State of Private Accommodation in U.S. Travel, 2015
8% 10%
13% 17%
25%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
But Airbnb travelers wouldn’t travel unless they could find an Airbnb, right?
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Only considered an Airbnb
Budget/economy hotel
Hostel
Staying with friends and family
Home or condo rental on another website
Inn/bed & breakfast
Upscale or luxury hotel
Midscale hotel
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45%
Airbnb Travelers Shop Just Like Other Travelers
Source: Phocuswright’s The Airbnb Traveler, forthcoming 2015
The size of our vacation rental
business is as big as the whole of Airbnb
Darren Huston President & CEO, The Priceline Group, and CEO, Booking.com
Source: http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/jul/03/priceline-online-travel-agent-booking-com-opentable
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+
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“8181 Vacation Rentals in Rome”
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Book on
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How is Italy faring in all this?
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Source: Phocuswright Inc.
Why the Lag? Online Penetration, Italy and Europe Travel Markets, 2013-2017
32% 35%
38% 40% 41%
41% 44%
47% 50% 52%
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Italy Europe
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Source: Phocuswright Inc.
More Reliance on OTAs Italian and European Online Travel Market, OTA vs. Supplier Direct Share, 2015
OTA 59%
Supplier Direct 41%
Italy
OTA 43%
Supplier Direct 57%
Europe
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24%
4%
31%
15%
5% 5% 3% 0.2% 0.3%
13%
No. of Properties
Hotels Aparthotels Apartments Bed & breakfasts Farm stays Guesthouses Country houses Resorts Holiday parks Other
Source: Key OTAs, April 2015. Base: 68,312 properties, representing 884,307 rooms. Other includes holiday homes, villas, inns, hostels and campsites (mobile homes and similar). *VHC members are assigned to the Independent Lodging market if not affiliated with a hotel chain (hard brand).
Hotel is Fragmented Italy – Total Lodging, 2014
Hotel chain share: 2%
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Key Metrics – Independent Lodging
43%
41% 37%
33%
11%
40%
55% 58%
70%
86%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
U.K. Spain France Germany Italy
Hotel Chain Penetration (% of Total Rooms Supply)
Independents' Online Intermediary Share (% of Total OTA Gross Bookings)
Avg. No. of Rooms per Property Total Lodging 13
Hotel/Motel 37
Other Lodging 3.3
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Independent Lodging, Italy
98% of total properties
(95% of hotel properties)
81% of total online direct
gross bookings
89% of total rooms capacity
84% of total gross bookings
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What’s next? Murder by Numbers
Murder by Numbers Past predictions and present surprises
Presented at BTO 2015
3 December 2015
Lorraine Sileo Philip Wolf Senior Vice President, Research Founder, Phocuswright
U.S. Online Travel Gross Bookings, 1998-‐2001 (US$ millions)
$2,556
$6,974
$12,887
$20,230
1998 1999 2000 2001
The first four years…
Source: The Phocuswright Yearbook 1999
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Market Valuation (as of 27 Nov)
$62B Priceline
$24B** Airbnb
$16B Expedia
$50B* Uber
*WSJ, 31 July 2015 **WSJ, 26 June 2015