phocuswright - bto 2015 - murder by numbers

Murder by Numbers Past predictions and present surprises

Presented at BTO 2015

3 December 2015

Lorraine Sileo

Senior Vice President, Research [email protected]

2 © 2015 Phocuswright Inc. All Rights Reserved.

About Phocuswright Phocuswright is the travel industry research authority on how travelers, suppliers and intermediaries connect.

Independent, rigorous and unbiased, Phocuswright delivers qualitative and quantitative research on the evolving dynamics that influence travel, tourism and hospitality distribution. Our marketplace intelligence is the industry standard for segmentation, sizing, forecasting, trends, analysis and consumer travel planning behavior. Every day around the world, senior executives, marketers, strategists and research professionals from all segments of the industry value chain use Phocuswright research for competitive advantage.

The company is headquartered in the United States with Asia Pacific operations based in India and local analysts on five continents.

Phocuswright is a wholly owned subsidiary of Northstar Travel Media, LLC.


Copyright

All Phocuswright Inc. publica5ons are protected by copyright. It is illegal under U.S. federal law (17USC101 et seq.) to copy, fax or electronically distribute copyrighted material without explicit permission. You may not copy, reproduce, modify, republish, upload, post, transmit, or distribute, electronically or otherwise, any Phocuswright research report in any form or by any means without prior wriGen permission from Phocuswright Inc. Any unauthorized use of the materials may violate copyright, trademark, and other applicable laws and could result in criminal or civil penal5es. © Phocuswright


Online Travel


Destination Selection

Travel Shopping

Booking

25%

22%

14%

27% 22%

14%

80% 80%

79%

Desktop

Smartphone

Tablet

*UK, Germany, France Question: Please indicate which of the following travel-related activities you have done online using your desktop/laptop, smartphone or tablet in the past 12 months. Select all that apply for each row. Base: European travelers (UK, Germany, France) (N=4,120) Source: Phocuswright’s European Traveler Technology Survey 2015

Devices Used During Trip Planning Life Cycle European Markets* Combined


Travel agents are dead

Everything will be booked

online Tour operators will fold

OTAs will rule the earth


Dinner or Diner?


2015


2015 - Global

½ Trillion (US$) global online travel gross

bookings

US$90B Expedia, Priceline, TripAdvisor

market cap

+11% annual growth

37% of all travel is booked online


2015 - Italy

€8 Billion online travel gross bookings

1+M Number of bookable beds

+10% annual online growth

€1.5 Billion mobile travel bookings


Global Share of Priceline Group and Expedia

Note: *Excludes gross bookings for Egencia, Expedia’s corporate travel business. Includes Travelocity, Wotif and Orbitz in 2015. Source: Phocuswright Inc.

-

50

100

150

200

2011 2013 2015

Gro

ss B

ooki

ngs

(US$

B)

All other OTAs

PCLN

EXPE*

38% 47%

65%


Percentage of U.S. Travelers Who Have Rented Private Accommodation, 2010-2014

Source: Phocuswright’s Rentals Rising: The State of Private Accommodation in U.S. Travel, 2015

8% 10%

13% 17%

25%

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

But Airbnb travelers wouldn’t travel unless they could find an Airbnb, right?


Only considered an Airbnb

Budget/economy hotel

Hostel

Staying with friends and family

Home or condo rental on another website

Inn/bed & breakfast

Upscale or luxury hotel

Midscale hotel

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45%

Airbnb Travelers Shop Just Like Other Travelers

Source: Phocuswright’s The Airbnb Traveler, forthcoming 2015

The size of our vacation rental

business is as big as the whole of Airbnb

Darren Huston President & CEO, The Priceline Group, and CEO, Booking.com

Source: http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/jul/03/priceline-online-travel-agent-booking-com-opentable


+


“8181 Vacation Rentals in Rome”


Book on


How is Italy faring in all this?


Source: Phocuswright Inc.

Why the Lag? Online Penetration, Italy and Europe Travel Markets, 2013-2017

32% 35%

38% 40% 41%

41% 44%

47% 50% 52%

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Italy Europe


Source: Phocuswright Inc.

More Reliance on OTAs Italian and European Online Travel Market, OTA vs. Supplier Direct Share, 2015

OTA 59%

Supplier Direct 41%

Italy

OTA 43%

Supplier Direct 57%

Europe


24%

4%

31%

15%

5% 5% 3% 0.2% 0.3%

13%

No. of Properties

Hotels Aparthotels Apartments Bed & breakfasts Farm stays Guesthouses Country houses Resorts Holiday parks Other

Source: Key OTAs, April 2015. Base: 68,312 properties, representing 884,307 rooms. Other includes holiday homes, villas, inns, hostels and campsites (mobile homes and similar). *VHC members are assigned to the Independent Lodging market if not affiliated with a hotel chain (hard brand).

Hotel is Fragmented Italy – Total Lodging, 2014

Hotel chain share: 2%


Key Metrics – Independent Lodging

43%

41% 37%

33%

11%

40%

55% 58%

70%

86%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

U.K. Spain France Germany Italy

Hotel Chain Penetration (% of Total Rooms Supply)

Independents' Online Intermediary Share (% of Total OTA Gross Bookings)

Avg. No. of Rooms per Property Total Lodging 13

Hotel/Motel 37

Other Lodging 3.3


Independent Lodging, Italy

98% of total properties

(95% of hotel properties)

81% of total online direct

gross bookings

89% of total rooms capacity

84% of total gross bookings


What’s next? Murder by Numbers

Murder by Numbers Past predictions and present surprises

Presented at BTO 2015

3 December 2015

Lorraine Sileo Philip Wolf Senior Vice President, Research Founder, Phocuswright

U.S. Online Travel Gross Bookings, 1998-‐2001 (US$ millions)

$2,556

$6,974

$12,887

$20,230

1998 1999 2000 2001

The first four years…

Source: The Phocuswright Yearbook 1999


Market Valuation (as of 27 Nov)

$62B Priceline

$24B** Airbnb

$16B Expedia

$50B* Uber

*WSJ, 31 July 2015 **WSJ, 26 June 2015

phocuswright - bto 2015 - murder by numbers

Data & Analytics