Download - Political Parties & Elections in Post-Soviet Russia (Part 1) 633... · • Yeltsin campaigns little in-between rounds –Suffers heart attack but denies it • Beats Zyuganov handily

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• Key questions:– How do elections in post-Soviet Russia differ from

those conducted in the late 1980s (under Gorbachev)?

– What sorts of political parties emerge in the 1990s?

– What explains the slow pace of development of political parties in the 1990s? Is this an indicator of a lack of receptivity to democracy?

– To what extent are the elections in Russia in the 1990s democratic in nature (e.g., competitive, open, non-corrupt, etc.)?

Political Parties & Elections in Post-Soviet

Russia (Part 1)Terms: Federal Assembly; Federation Council; Duma; single-member

district; Zhirinovskii; Zyuganov

USSR Supreme Soviet

-Laws applied in Soviet Union

(Including RSFSR)

USSR Voters

RSFSR Supreme Soviet

- Laws applied in RSFSR

RSFSR Voters

USSR Supreme Soviet

-Laws applied in Soviet Union

(Including RSFSR)

USSR Voters

RSFSR Supreme Soviet

- Laws applied in RSFSR

RSFSR Voters

Election effectively

invalidated

2

• Governmental structure in post-93 environment (2nd Russian Republic)

– “October events” opened the door for a new constitution

– New rights & responsibilities for citizens (BUT rethought by Putin)

Legislature => Federal Assembly

-- Bicameral: State Duma & Federation Council

Yeltsin (post-93) selection mechanisms – Reformed by Putin

Federation Council: Upper house

• 2 reps from each “subject”

– one rep from exec branch – one rep from legisl

• Original selection system:– Executive rep = governor of region

– Legislative rep = speaker of regional legislature

• Consequence of selection system:

– Federation Council was not a full-time legislative body

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Duma: under original (post-93) rules, deputies selected

through 2 separate mechanisms

• Half of deputies are elected in single-member districts

– Geographically-based constituencies

– Candidate need not have any prior connection with locale

– Whoever gets most votes wins

• Half of deputies are elected through party lists

(proportional representation)

– Citizens vote for party (not individual)

• BUT support for party is affected by who is on the list

• List constitutes rank order of candidates –

those at top of list will be seated first

– 5% threshold requirement => intended to foster party dev-mt

• Bottom line => people vote twice

December 1993 elections to the Duma

• Held in wake of “October events”

• 2-year terms for deputies (rather than usual 4-year terms)

• High level of participation

– 1400 candidates registered for 250 SMD seats

– 13 parties competed

• Outcome:

– 8 parties made it over 5% threshold

– BUT within SMD – general lack of party influence

• 64% of winning candidates were unaffiliated with any party

Results from 1993 elections

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Images of Vladimir Zhirinovskii

• Surprises from 93 elections

– Strength of Zhirinovsky (LDPR)

• Nationalist platform

• Weaker showing in SMD voting

– Revival of Communists

– Non-dominance of democrats

• Yeltsin lent his support to

“Russia’s Choice”

• Won more seats than any other

party, but had been expected to

win a full majority

• Consequence:

“Russia’s Choice” splinters

5

Comparison of the legislative elections in 1990s:

vote in PR elections

Party 1993 1995 1999

Communist Party (CPRF) [Zyuganov] X (12) X (22) X (24)

Liberal Democratic Party (LDPR)

[Zhirinovskii]

X (23) X (11) X (6)

Russia’s Choice [Gaidar] X (16)

Yabloko [Yavlinskii] X (8) X (7) X (6)

Our Home is Russia [Chernomyrdin] X (10)

Unity [Gryzlov – alliance w/ Putin]

In 2003 – United Russia

X (24)

Fatherland [Luzhkov]

In 2000 – joins forces w/ Unity

X (13)

Union of Right Forces [Khakamada;

Nemtsov] – rebirth of “Russia’s Choice”

X (9)

% of PR vote “wasted” 12 50 18

• Communist Party hangs on,

but is reformulated

– Main constituency –

pensioners

– Strength declines as time

goes on (constituency is

dying off)

– Lack of charismatic leader

(Zyuganov)

– More recently CP splinters

• Rodina

• Rise of factionsThe Communist Party has not changed

its name; it will not change its methods

Comparison of the legislative elections in the 1990s:

vote in PR elections

Party 1993 1995 1999



[Zhirinovskii]

X (23) X (11) X (6)






X (24)



X (13)



X (9)


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• Proliferation of parties: 1993-1999

BUT few get over 5% threshold

– 1995: 43 parties – 4 survive

– 1999: 26 parties – 6 survive

• Why so many parties on the ballot?Why do so few make it?

• Result: many voters “waste” their votes

– 1995: 50% of PR votes are “wasted”

– 1999: 18% of PR votes are “wasted”

Wasted vote

Party 1993 1995 1999



[Zhirinovskii]

X (23) X (11) X (6)






X (24)



X (13)



X (9)


• Longstanding dissatisfaction w/ dualistic electoral

system

– Yeltsin wanted to eliminate party lists -- unsuccessful

– Putin succeeded in eliminating single-member districts

List SMD List SMD

Communist Party 99 58 67 46

LDPR 50 1 17 0

Our Home is Russia 45 10 -- --

Yabloko 31 14 16 4

Unity / United Russia -- -- 64 9

Independent NA 77 NA 114

1993 1999

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• Relatively few political parties have been able to sustain themselves– Only 3 major parties have participated in all elections

• Communists, Liberal Democrats, Yabloko

– Only 2 parties have gotten over the 5% threshold in all elections

• Communists, Liberal Democrats

– Significant number of parties do well in 1 election, then vanish

• 1993: Russia’s Choice

• 1995: Our Home is Russia

Trends

Only 2 Parties Get Over Threshold in All Elections

Party 1993 1995 1999 2003 2007

Communist Party (CPRF) [Zyuganov] X (12) X (22) X (24) X (13) X (12)


[Zhirinovskii]

X (23) X (11) X (6) X (12) X (8)


Yabloko [Yavlinskii] X (8) X (7) X (6) (2)




X (24) X (37) X (64)



X (13)



X (9) (1)

Motherland / Rodina [Glazyev] X (9)

A Just Russia Party [pro-Kremlin] X (8)

% of PR vote “wasted” 12 50 18 29 [8]

Flash-in-the Pan Parties

Party 1993 1995 1999 2003 2007

Communist Party (CPRF) [Zyuganov] X (12) X (22) X (24) X (13) X (12)


[Zhirinovskii]

X (23) X (11) X (6) X (12) X (8)


Yabloko [Yavlinskii] X (8) X (7) X (6) (2)




X (24) X (37) X (64)



X (13)



X (9) (1)

Motherland / Rodina [Glazyev] X (9)

A Just Russia Party [pro-Kremlin] X (8)

% of PR vote “wasted” 12 50 18 29 [8]

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Our Home is Russia (1995)

V.P. Chernomyrdin (then Prime Minister)

• Tendency of parties to be identified

with specific individuals, rather than

with ideas or policy agendas

– Consequence: parties tend to be

short-lived

– Support tends to be shallow

– Some leaders are charismatic (ex:

Zhirinovskii), while others emerge

as leaders through intellect (ex:

Yavlinskii – Yabloko)

• Yeltsin never joined a party.

Yavlinskii

Zhirinovskii

Pro Yabloko

A joining together of Democrats

Anti Yabloko

Don’t vote for Yabloko! It’s rotten.

Moscow City Council elections (2005)

Rhetoric regarding Yabloko

9

Percentage of Women & Workers in

Elected Legislatures

Manual Workers Women

USSR Supreme Soviet (1970) 31.7% 30.5%


USSR Cong of P Deps (1989) 18.6% 17.1%


Russian Duma (1994) 1.3% 13.5%

Russian Duma (2000) 0.65% 7.7%

Russian Duma (2004) 0 10%

• Democratic-oriented parties

– Fail to capture popular enthusiasm

– Steady decline

• 93: 24% of PR vote



– Possible explanations:

• Democratic parties blamed for difficulties of

transition

• Leaders of democratically-inclined parties

unwilling to compromise

• Leaders unable to tap into popular issues

How does Yeltsin become the President of Russia?

• Step 1: Reemerges into political life with election to USSR Congress of Peoples’ Deputies (March 1989)

• Step 2: Elected to the Russian Congress of Peoples’ Deputies (March 1990)

• Step 3: Becomes chairman of the Russian Supreme Soviet (May 1990)

• Step 4: Popularly elected as President of Russian Federation (June 1991)

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Chairman of the Presidium of the Supreme Soviet

(pre-1989)

• Figurehead of government

• No real power

Chairman of the Supreme Soviet

(1988-90)

• Elected by Congress of People’s Deputies

• Highest ranking official in the USSR

• Position authorized by constitutional amendment

• Gorbachev elected to post (5-89)

President of the Soviet Union

(1990-91)

• First President to be elected indirectly by legislature

• Subsequent Presidents to be elected directly for

5-year terms

• Head of executive branch

• Gorbachev elected – March 1990

President of the

Russian Supreme Soviet

• Elected indirectly by

legislative deputies

• Yeltsin elected

(May 1990)

President of Russia

(when Russia was still part

of the Soviet Union)

• Elected directly

• Yeltsin elected

(June 1990)

• June 1991 election:

– Multiple candidates (6)

– Eligibility to run:

• Endorsed by party w/ 20% of deputies in Russian Congress of Peoples’ Deps

• Collect 100,000 signatures

– Yeltsin picks Rutskoi as VP(military leader)

– Results:

• Yeltsin 57%

• Ryzhkov 17%

• Zhirinovsky 8%

• Against all 2%

Presidential Elections: 1996, 2000, 2004, 2008

• 1996 Election: no one

expected Yeltsin to run

– Single digit popularity ratings

– Sources of unpopularity:

• “October events”

• War in Chechnya – begun

in Dec 1994 – quagmire

• Suffering as a result of

transition (poverty,

unemployment, etc.)

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Yeltsin during the 1st round of the 96 elections

• Yeltsin decides to run

– 2-stage campaign

– Yeltsin seems like a

new man

– lots of energy

– until collapse after 1st

round of voting

Results of the 1st round of the 1996 election:

Candidate % of popular vote

Boris Yeltsin 35.5

Gennadi Zyuganov 32.0

Aleksandr Lebed 14.5

Gregori Yavlinskii 7.3

Vladimir Zhirinovskii 5.7

Svyatoslav Fyodorov 0.9

Mikhail Gorbachev 0.5

Against all candidates 1.5

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Second round of 1996 election:

• Yeltsin strikes deal w/ Lebed

(3rd place finisher)

• Yeltsin campaigns little

in-between rounds

– Suffers heart attack but

denies it

• Beats Zyuganov handily

Yeltsin: 53.8%

Zyuganov: 40.3%

How did Yeltsin win?

• Money: Yeltsin outspent other candidates

– Electoral law ostensibly limited candidates to $3 million

– No meaningful enforcement mechanisms

• Media: Yeltsin coopts the media

– All networks & most newspapers openly supported Yeltsin

– Journalists defended themselves by pointing to fear of what

would happen if Zyuganov (Communist) won

• Message: Yeltsin better at presenting his positions

– Professional commercials for Yeltsin

– Contrast w/ simplistic approach of Zyuganov

Posters for Yeltsin’s campaign

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Zyuganov’s campaign:

The candidate & his supporters

General conclusions about Russian

elections in the 1990s:

• Held regularly; universal suffrage

• Fairly competitive: Some criticisms about

strong-arm tactics (especially in 1996

presidential election), but generally free

• Relatively stable rules, but uncertain

outcomes

Download - Political Parties & Elections in Post-Soviet Russia (Part 1) 633... · • Yeltsin campaigns little in-between rounds –Suffers heart attack but denies it • Beats Zyuganov handily

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