political parties & elections in post-soviet russia (part 1) 633... · • yeltsin campaigns...
TRANSCRIPT
1
• Key questions:– How do elections in post-Soviet Russia differ from
those conducted in the late 1980s (under Gorbachev)?
– What sorts of political parties emerge in the 1990s?
– What explains the slow pace of development of political parties in the 1990s? Is this an indicator of a lack of receptivity to democracy?
– To what extent are the elections in Russia in the 1990s democratic in nature (e.g., competitive, open, non-corrupt, etc.)?
Political Parties & Elections in Post-Soviet
Russia (Part 1)Terms: Federal Assembly; Federation Council; Duma; single-member
district; Zhirinovskii; Zyuganov
USSR Supreme Soviet
-Laws applied in Soviet Union
(Including RSFSR)
USSR Voters
RSFSR Supreme Soviet
- Laws applied in RSFSR
RSFSR Voters
USSR Supreme Soviet
-Laws applied in Soviet Union
(Including RSFSR)
USSR Voters
RSFSR Supreme Soviet
- Laws applied in RSFSR
RSFSR Voters
Election effectively
invalidated
2
• Governmental structure in post-93 environment (2nd Russian Republic)
– “October events” opened the door for a new constitution
– New rights & responsibilities for citizens (BUT rethought by Putin)
Legislature => Federal Assembly
-- Bicameral: State Duma & Federation Council
Yeltsin (post-93) selection mechanisms – Reformed by Putin
Federation Council: Upper house
• 2 reps from each “subject”
– one rep from exec branch – one rep from legisl
• Original selection system:– Executive rep = governor of region
– Legislative rep = speaker of regional legislature
• Consequence of selection system:
– Federation Council was not a full-time legislative body
3
Duma: under original (post-93) rules, deputies selected
through 2 separate mechanisms
• Half of deputies are elected in single-member districts
– Geographically-based constituencies
– Candidate need not have any prior connection with locale
– Whoever gets most votes wins
• Half of deputies are elected through party lists
(proportional representation)
– Citizens vote for party (not individual)
• BUT support for party is affected by who is on the list
• List constitutes rank order of candidates –
those at top of list will be seated first
– 5% threshold requirement => intended to foster party dev-mt
• Bottom line => people vote twice
December 1993 elections to the Duma
• Held in wake of “October events”
• 2-year terms for deputies (rather than usual 4-year terms)
• High level of participation
– 1400 candidates registered for 250 SMD seats
– 13 parties competed
• Outcome:
– 8 parties made it over 5% threshold
– BUT within SMD – general lack of party influence
• 64% of winning candidates were unaffiliated with any party
Results from 1993 elections
4
Images of Vladimir Zhirinovskii
• Surprises from 93 elections
– Strength of Zhirinovsky (LDPR)
• Nationalist platform
• Weaker showing in SMD voting
– Revival of Communists
– Non-dominance of democrats
• Yeltsin lent his support to
“Russia’s Choice”
• Won more seats than any other
party, but had been expected to
win a full majority
• Consequence:
“Russia’s Choice” splinters
5
Comparison of the legislative elections in 1990s:
vote in PR elections
Party 1993 1995 1999
Communist Party (CPRF) [Zyuganov] X (12) X (22) X (24)
Liberal Democratic Party (LDPR)
[Zhirinovskii]
X (23) X (11) X (6)
Russia’s Choice [Gaidar] X (16)
Yabloko [Yavlinskii] X (8) X (7) X (6)
Our Home is Russia [Chernomyrdin] X (10)
Unity [Gryzlov – alliance w/ Putin]
In 2003 – United Russia
X (24)
Fatherland [Luzhkov]
In 2000 – joins forces w/ Unity
X (13)
Union of Right Forces [Khakamada;
Nemtsov] – rebirth of “Russia’s Choice”
X (9)
% of PR vote “wasted” 12 50 18
• Communist Party hangs on,
but is reformulated
– Main constituency –
pensioners
– Strength declines as time
goes on (constituency is
dying off)
– Lack of charismatic leader
(Zyuganov)
– More recently CP splinters
• Rodina
• Rise of factionsThe Communist Party has not changed
its name; it will not change its methods
Comparison of the legislative elections in the 1990s:
vote in PR elections
Party 1993 1995 1999
Communist Party (CPRF) [Zyuganov] X (12) X (22) X (24)
Liberal Democratic Party (LDPR)
[Zhirinovskii]
X (23) X (11) X (6)
Russia’s Choice [Gaidar] X (16)
Yabloko [Yavlinskii] X (8) X (7) X (6)
Our Home is Russia [Chernomyrdin] X (10)
Unity [Gryzlov – alliance w/ Putin]
In 2003 – United Russia
X (24)
Fatherland [Luzhkov]
In 2000 – joins forces w/ Unity
X (13)
Union of Right Forces [Khakamada;
Nemtsov] – rebirth of “Russia’s Choice”
X (9)
% of PR vote “wasted” 12 50 18
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• Proliferation of parties: 1993-1999
BUT few get over 5% threshold
– 1995: 43 parties – 4 survive
– 1999: 26 parties – 6 survive
• Why so many parties on the ballot?Why do so few make it?
• Result: many voters “waste” their votes
– 1995: 50% of PR votes are “wasted”
– 1999: 18% of PR votes are “wasted”
Wasted vote
Party 1993 1995 1999
Communist Party (CPRF) [Zyuganov] X (12) X (22) X (24)
Liberal Democratic Party (LDPR)
[Zhirinovskii]
X (23) X (11) X (6)
Russia’s Choice [Gaidar] X (16)
Yabloko [Yavlinskii] X (8) X (7) X (6)
Our Home is Russia [Chernomyrdin] X (10)
Unity [Gryzlov – alliance w/ Putin]
In 2003 – United Russia
X (24)
Fatherland [Luzhkov]
In 2000 – joins forces w/ Unity
X (13)
Union of Right Forces [Khakamada;
Nemtsov] – rebirth of “Russia’s Choice”
X (9)
% of PR vote “wasted” 12 50 18
• Longstanding dissatisfaction w/ dualistic electoral
system
– Yeltsin wanted to eliminate party lists -- unsuccessful
– Putin succeeded in eliminating single-member districts
List SMD List SMD
Communist Party 99 58 67 46
LDPR 50 1 17 0
Our Home is Russia 45 10 -- --
Yabloko 31 14 16 4
Unity / United Russia -- -- 64 9
Independent NA 77 NA 114
1993 1999
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• Relatively few political parties have been able to sustain themselves– Only 3 major parties have participated in all elections
• Communists, Liberal Democrats, Yabloko
– Only 2 parties have gotten over the 5% threshold in all elections
• Communists, Liberal Democrats
– Significant number of parties do well in 1 election, then vanish
• 1993: Russia’s Choice
• 1995: Our Home is Russia
Trends
Only 2 Parties Get Over Threshold in All Elections
Party 1993 1995 1999 2003 2007
Communist Party (CPRF) [Zyuganov] X (12) X (22) X (24) X (13) X (12)
Liberal Democratic Party (LDPR)
[Zhirinovskii]
X (23) X (11) X (6) X (12) X (8)
Russia’s Choice [Gaidar] X (16)
Yabloko [Yavlinskii] X (8) X (7) X (6) (2)
Our Home is Russia [Chernomyrdin] X (10)
Unity [Gryzlov – alliance w/ Putin]
In 2003 – United Russia
X (24) X (37) X (64)
Fatherland [Luzhkov]
In 2000 – joins forces w/ Unity
X (13)
Union of Right Forces [Khakamada;
Nemtsov] – rebirth of “Russia’s Choice”
X (9) (1)
Motherland / Rodina [Glazyev] X (9)
A Just Russia Party [pro-Kremlin] X (8)
% of PR vote “wasted” 12 50 18 29 [8]
Flash-in-the Pan Parties
Party 1993 1995 1999 2003 2007
Communist Party (CPRF) [Zyuganov] X (12) X (22) X (24) X (13) X (12)
Liberal Democratic Party (LDPR)
[Zhirinovskii]
X (23) X (11) X (6) X (12) X (8)
Russia’s Choice [Gaidar] X (16)
Yabloko [Yavlinskii] X (8) X (7) X (6) (2)
Our Home is Russia [Chernomyrdin] X (10)
Unity [Gryzlov – alliance w/ Putin]
In 2003 – United Russia
X (24) X (37) X (64)
Fatherland [Luzhkov]
In 2000 – joins forces w/ Unity
X (13)
Union of Right Forces [Khakamada;
Nemtsov] – rebirth of “Russia’s Choice”
X (9) (1)
Motherland / Rodina [Glazyev] X (9)
A Just Russia Party [pro-Kremlin] X (8)
% of PR vote “wasted” 12 50 18 29 [8]
8
Our Home is Russia (1995)
V.P. Chernomyrdin (then Prime Minister)
• Tendency of parties to be identified
with specific individuals, rather than
with ideas or policy agendas
– Consequence: parties tend to be
short-lived
– Support tends to be shallow
– Some leaders are charismatic (ex:
Zhirinovskii), while others emerge
as leaders through intellect (ex:
Yavlinskii – Yabloko)
• Yeltsin never joined a party.
Yavlinskii
Zhirinovskii
Pro Yabloko
A joining together of Democrats
Anti Yabloko
Don’t vote for Yabloko! It’s rotten.
Moscow City Council elections (2005)
Rhetoric regarding Yabloko
9
Percentage of Women & Workers in
Elected Legislatures
Manual Workers Women
USSR Supreme Soviet (1970) 31.7% 30.5%
USSR Supreme Soviet (1984) 35.2% 32.8%
USSR Cong of P Deps (1989) 18.6% 17.1%
USSR Supreme Soviet (1989) 24.7% 18.4%
Russian Duma (1994) 1.3% 13.5%
Russian Duma (2000) 0.65% 7.7%
Russian Duma (2004) 0 10%
• Democratic-oriented parties
– Fail to capture popular enthusiasm
– Steady decline
• 93: 24% of PR vote
• 95: 17% of PR vote
• 99: 13% of PR vote
– Possible explanations:
• Democratic parties blamed for difficulties of
transition
• Leaders of democratically-inclined parties
unwilling to compromise
• Leaders unable to tap into popular issues
How does Yeltsin become the President of Russia?
• Step 1: Reemerges into political life with election to USSR Congress of Peoples’ Deputies (March 1989)
• Step 2: Elected to the Russian Congress of Peoples’ Deputies (March 1990)
• Step 3: Becomes chairman of the Russian Supreme Soviet (May 1990)
• Step 4: Popularly elected as President of Russian Federation (June 1991)
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Chairman of the Presidium of the Supreme Soviet
(pre-1989)
• Figurehead of government
• No real power
Chairman of the Supreme Soviet
(1988-90)
• Elected by Congress of People’s Deputies
• Highest ranking official in the USSR
• Position authorized by constitutional amendment
• Gorbachev elected to post (5-89)
President of the Soviet Union
(1990-91)
• First President to be elected indirectly by legislature
• Subsequent Presidents to be elected directly for
5-year terms
• Head of executive branch
• Gorbachev elected – March 1990
President of the
Russian Supreme Soviet
• Elected indirectly by
legislative deputies
• Yeltsin elected
(May 1990)
President of Russia
(when Russia was still part
of the Soviet Union)
• Elected directly
• Yeltsin elected
(June 1990)
• June 1991 election:
– Multiple candidates (6)
– Eligibility to run:
• Endorsed by party w/ 20% of deputies in Russian Congress of Peoples’ Deps
• Collect 100,000 signatures
– Yeltsin picks Rutskoi as VP(military leader)
– Results:
• Yeltsin 57%
• Ryzhkov 17%
• Zhirinovsky 8%
• Against all 2%
Presidential Elections: 1996, 2000, 2004, 2008
• 1996 Election: no one
expected Yeltsin to run
– Single digit popularity ratings
– Sources of unpopularity:
• “October events”
• War in Chechnya – begun
in Dec 1994 – quagmire
• Suffering as a result of
transition (poverty,
unemployment, etc.)
11
Yeltsin during the 1st round of the 96 elections
• Yeltsin decides to run
– 2-stage campaign
– Yeltsin seems like a
new man
– lots of energy
– until collapse after 1st
round of voting
Results of the 1st round of the 1996 election:
Candidate % of popular vote
Boris Yeltsin 35.5
Gennadi Zyuganov 32.0
Aleksandr Lebed 14.5
Gregori Yavlinskii 7.3
Vladimir Zhirinovskii 5.7
Svyatoslav Fyodorov 0.9
Mikhail Gorbachev 0.5
Against all candidates 1.5
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Second round of 1996 election:
• Yeltsin strikes deal w/ Lebed
(3rd place finisher)
• Yeltsin campaigns little
in-between rounds
– Suffers heart attack but
denies it
• Beats Zyuganov handily
Yeltsin: 53.8%
Zyuganov: 40.3%
How did Yeltsin win?
• Money: Yeltsin outspent other candidates
– Electoral law ostensibly limited candidates to $3 million
– No meaningful enforcement mechanisms
• Media: Yeltsin coopts the media
– All networks & most newspapers openly supported Yeltsin
– Journalists defended themselves by pointing to fear of what
would happen if Zyuganov (Communist) won
• Message: Yeltsin better at presenting his positions
– Professional commercials for Yeltsin
– Contrast w/ simplistic approach of Zyuganov
Posters for Yeltsin’s campaign
13
Zyuganov’s campaign:
The candidate & his supporters
General conclusions about Russian
elections in the 1990s:
• Held regularly; universal suffrage
• Fairly competitive: Some criticisms about
strong-arm tactics (especially in 1996
presidential election), but generally free
• Relatively stable rules, but uncertain
outcomes