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Population
UNIT II
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Key Questions• Will the earth’s population increase to a level that could
lead to a global crisis?• What patterns exist in the earth’s population densities and
distributions?• Why are populations growing faster in some areas of the
world than in others?• How have governments and religions attempted to
influence population growth trends?• How do geographers measure and study human population
patterns?• What are the current and past patterns of population
migration and movements?• What political, economic, and social factors influence
population migration streams?
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Population
• Demography– Study of human populations
• Infrastructure– Support systems (housing, food, education,
healthcare, roadways)
• Scale of Inquiry– Size of geographic investigation…global vs.
regional vs. local
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Trends
• Populations are growing in poorer areas– Ex. Africa and Asia
• Critical issue not the growing population– Critical issue is growth without support
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Demographic Accounting equations
• Global population accounting equation– P0= population at start– P1= population at end– B= Births within time interval– D= Deaths within time interval
– P1=P0 + B - D
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What about on a regional/subglobal level?
• Similar but adds two factors• IMMIGRATION…think Into• EMMIGRATION…think Exiting
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Demographic Accounting equations
• Sub-Global population accounting equation– P0= population at start– P1= population at end– B= Births within time interval– D= Deaths within time interval– I= Immigration– E= Emmigration
– P1=P0 + B – D + I - E
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Population Distribution
• Distribution– Pattern of people across the earth’s surface
• Throughout history it has been UNEVEN• Cluster around RESOURCES• ¾ of people live only on 5% of the earth’s surface• ECUMENE- Earth’s surface where people can live• 50/50 split (Urban vs. Rural)
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Global Pop Distribution
• ~81% of pop lives in LDCs• 2 countries have over 1 billion people each• 7 Billion worldwide• 1 in 2 live in Asia• 3 in 5 live in Asia/Europe• Largest concentration: East Asia (China, Japan,
Taiwan, Korea)• Second largest concentration: S. Asia (India,
Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Pakistan)
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Cont…
• Natural Increase rate– The percentage growth of a population in a year,
computed as the crude birth rate minus the crude death rate
– India’s NIR is higher than China’s … what does that mean?
– Most Asians are subsistence farmers
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Cont…
• Third largest concentration: Europe… From Atlantic to the Ural Mtns.– Mainly due to Industrial Revolution– Most Europeans are Urban Dwellers
– Although Asian has a greater number of Urban Dwellers due to greater population
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Density• Arithmetic Density/Population Density– Total number of people divided by total land area– Egypt: 177 people per sq mile
• Physiological Density– Number of people divided by arable land– Arable = Farmland– Ex. Egypt:8,000 per sq mile of arable land
• Agricultural Density– Farmers per unit of arable land– Low agri density suggests large farms– High agri density= many farmers on each piece of
farmland
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Overpopulation
• Carrying Capacity– The number of people the area can
sustain/support
– Efforts to increase C.C.• Japan imports food and supplies• Israel has improved irrigation• Saudi Arabia has desalination plants
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Cont.
• Overpopulation– When a region outgrows its carrying capacity
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Population Pyramids
• Age-Sex structures• Helps to evaluate the distribution of ages and
genders in a given population• Cohort– A group of people of the same age
– Pop Pyramids can help predict future growth or problems
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Population Pyramids
• Can look towards history to help explain– Ex. Baby boom
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Graying Population
• Dependency ratio– Ration of people 15-64 vs. the rest– Why this group?– In US and Europe the Ratio is growing
– In 2000… first time 60 and overs outnumbered people under 14
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Population explosion
• We are growing EXPONENTIALLY• Different than linear or arithmetic
• 1st agricultural rev.• Industrial rev.• 2nd ag revolution
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Theories of Pop Growth
• Thomas Malthus – Said pop was growing GEOMETRICALLY– Said food was growing ARITHMETICALLY
– Advocated birth control and celibacy (positive checks)
– Negative checks (war, starvation, disease)
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Pop
• 1650-1/2 billion• 1820- 1 billion• 1930- 2 billion• 1975- 4 billion• 2000- 6 billion• 2012- 7 billion
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Other theories
• Karl Marx-uneven distribution of resources• Boserup- increase subsistence farming• Neo-Malthusians-we must reach a sustainable
level
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Demographer’s tools• Crude birth rate: number of live births per 1000
people• Crude death rate: number of deaths per 1000
people• Infant mortality rate: infant deaths per 1000
births• Life expectancy• Fecundity: ability of a woman to conceive• General Fertility rate: number of births per 1000
women in the Fecund years
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Cont…
• Total fertility rate: predicted number of births a woman will have thru the fecund years– A TFR of 2.1 in called replacement level fertility…
leads to zero pop growth
– Global NIR or RNI in 2006 was 1.2 (0 means no growth)
– MDCs = .1– LDCs = 1.5
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China
• Female infanticide due to 1 child policy• Leads to increased HIV
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The Demographic
Transition(Ch 2.3A)
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The Classic Stages of Demographic Transition
Time
Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4
Naturalincrease
Birth rate
Death rate
Note: Natural increase is produced from the excess of births over deaths.
Lesson Plan: The Demographic Transition, Activity One
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Stage 1: Low Growth• Very high birth/death rates• Occurred during most of human
history…no country in stage one today• #of births = #of deaths (zero population
growth)
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Stage 2: High Growth• Very high birth rates/declining death rates• Very high rate of natural increase• New technologies developed during the Industrial
Revolution helped farmers produce more food -especially in N. America & Europe (@1800)
• Diffusion of medical technologies helped populations of LDC’s in Africa, Asia, and Latin America grow in the mid-20th century.
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Stage 3: Moderate Growth
•birth rates rapidly decline/death rates continue to fall/rate of natural increase slows
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Stage 4: Low Growth
• Very low birth/death rates • slow rate of natural
increase• Zero population growth
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Scatter graphs• Used to investigate the relationship between two
variables for a set of paired data. • Trend line should be drawn that…
– Follow the trend of the data– Join as many points as possible– Leave an equal number of unjoined points on either
side
Strong positive correlation
Strong negative correlation
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Epidemiological Transition model• Focuses on causes of death at each stage of the
Demographic transition model• 4 stages (matches DTM)• Stage 1- Pestilence and Famine– Ex. Black plague
• Stage 2- Receding Pandemics• Stage 3- Degenerative and Human created diseases– Cancer, heart attacks, etc…
• Stage 4- Delayed Degenerative disease– Still there but doesn’t occur as fast
• Stage 5?- Reemergence of infectious and parasitic disease– Increase mobility
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Migration
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Population Movement
• Friction of Distance– Difficulty of distance– It has been reduced
• Space time compression– Friction of distance being reduced through tech
• Spatial interaction– Interaction between two places
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Migration
• The process of PERMANENTLY moving from your home region and crossing an administrative boundary
• Current…174 million have migrated outside their home country
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Migration Stream
• A pathway from a place of origin to a destination
• PLACE DESIRABILITY– Possession of Positive features
• Net in-migration– More IMMIGRATION
• Net out-migration– More EMMIGRATION
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Migration Streams
• Usually have COUNTERSTREAMS
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Push/Pull factors
• PUSH… negative factors• PULL… positive factors
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Voluntary vs. Involuntary
• Voluntary– They have the option
• Involuntary– They are pushed from their land• Ex. N. Atlantic slave trade
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Refugees
• Migrants that flee some sort of persecution or abuse
• INTERNATIONAL REFUGEES– Flee to other countries
• INTRANATIONAL REFUGEES– Flee to another area of the country they live in– AKA internally displaced people
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Major areas of Dislocation and Refugees
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Sub-Saharan Africa
• Largest refugee crisis• Rwanda and Congo- Tribal/Ethnic conflicts• Darfur region(Sudan)- Religious/Ethnic tension
between North and South, Muslims and Animists, and government and rebels have led to dislocation
• Zaire, Tanzania, Sierra Leone, Angola, Burundi– War related refugees
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Middle East
• (may include N. Africa)• Migration streams include– Palestinians after formation of Israeli state to
neighboring SW Asia: Jordan, Syria, and Egypt– Kurdish from Iraq and Afghanistan during Soviet
occupation in the 1980s
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Europe
• In the Balkins… Fall of Yugoslavia led to largest refugee crisis in Europe since WWII…nearly 7 million
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SE Asia
• The Vietnam war created 2 million refugees• Cambodia– Violent government transition led to 300,000
refugees
• Burma– (now Myanmar)– Dislocated thousands
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S. Asia
• Afghani refugees to neighboring Pakistan• Sri Lanka … nearly 1 million citizens dislocated
by a feud with the Sinhalese government
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Internal Migration
• Interregional Migration• Intraregional Migration• Urban Migration– CounterUrbanization
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US migration patterns
• Have shifted west and south
• Great Migration– African Americans moving North after 1900
(~WWI)– 1970s they moved back South
– Overall shift South for better weather and opportunities (Jobs moved South)
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Aging Industry
• Rustbelt (northeast)• Sunbelt (South)
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After WWII migration
• Jewish immigrants to Israel from all over including Russia and Germany
• E. German emigration to other areas to avoid Soviet control
• Asia (Philippines, Vietnam, India) => USA• N. Africa/Turkey to Europe (France, Germany,
and England)
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Migration Selectivity
• Decision to migrate is a predictable pattern based on age, income, and other socioeconomic factors
• Age most relevant (18-30)
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Brain Drain
• Most educated leave for more distant job opportunities
• Ex. Appalachian region in Kentucky
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Gravity Model
• Larger places attract more migrants• Also… closer places also attract more migrants
than farther places• Migration is therefore directly proportionate
to population size and inversely proportionate to the distance between two places
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Ravenstein Migration Laws
• Majority of migrants travel short distances– Step migration– Intervening opportunities– Intervening Obstacles
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Cont…
• Migrants who travel farther will tend to move to large cities
• Rural residents are more likely to migrate• Families are less likely to migrate across
borders• Every migration steam has a counterstream
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Chain Migration
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Migration transition
• Stage 1- searching local for necessities• Stage 2- Countries are taxed for resources
(due to NIR) so people move out• Stage 3-Internal Migration… cities to suburbs• Stage 4- Intraregional