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Power Sector Planning and Development:Lessons from Thailand’s and international
experience
Chuenchom Sangarasri Greacen9 March 2013
WORKSHOP ON “ELECTRIC POWER DEVELOPMENT & CHALLENGES IN MYANMAR: SHARING EXPERIENCES OF THE MEKONG REGION”
Tonga Puri Hotel, Nay Pyi Taw, Myanmar
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The engine of sustainable economic & social development
Environment
People(peace,
democracy, justice) Improved
living standards &economic opportunity:- Wealth generation- Access to electricity
- Education- Health
Electricity
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Power sector planning in a nutshell Mechanism:
• Assess needs,• Source supply• To meet objectives (e.g. reliability, job creation)
• At reasonable price
Approaches to planning:• Centralized (top-down) • Decentralized (bottom-up)
Approaches to electrification• Off-grid/mini-grid• Grid extension
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Centralized & decentralized generation
โรงไฟฟาสายสงไฟฟาแรงสง
สถานไฟฟาแรงสง
หมอแปลงจำาหนาย
สายจำาหนาย
แรงดนไฟฟาระดบสง
แรงดนไฟฟาระดบกลาง
Gasifier/Solar farm/Biogas Plant
Cogeneration BiomassPlant/Large solar farm
HV substation
Distribution transformer
LV distribution
MV distribution
HV Transmission
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Power sector planning in a nutshell Mechanism:
• Assess needs,• Source supply• To meet objectives (e.g. reliability, job creation)
• At reasonable price
Approaches to planning:• Centralized (top-down) • Decentralized (bottom-up)
Approaches to electrification• Off-grid/mini-grid• Grid extension
• There may not be a “one-size-fit-all” solution • Diverse context and situation require diverse approaches
What is the best approach for a country?
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Large Plants
Customers
Small Power Producer
Mini-Grid
Customers
Parallel approach: extending the grid and encouraging rural mini-grids
NationalGrid
Top-down Bottom-up
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Thailand’s approach
• Rural electrification = grid expansion + mini-grid– Community-scale power generation systems (e.g.
microhydro) were forced to abandon their generation and mini-grids when grid electricity arrived
• Centralized, monopoly (single buyer) model with strong emphasis on large-scale generation
• Deterministic forecast, top-down planning process• Little participation in decision-making and sector
development
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Planning of capacity additions(Total capacity requirement = peak demand + 15% reserve margin)
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Demand forecast
• Demand treated as given• Deterministic model
– Main assumptions: • GDP growth• Energy elasticity (electricity growth/GDP growth)• Population growth• Econometric model with some end-use data (e.g. floor
space for offices or appliance ownership and efficiency for residential sector) if available
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Source: Energy for Environment Foundation, Study Project for Load Forecast – Executive Summary.
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Total Final Energy Consumption & GDP
4.10
4.20
4.30
4.40
4.50
4.60
4.70
4.80
3.05 3.10 3.15 3.20 3.25 3.30 3.35 3.40 3.45 3.50 3.55
log (GDP)
log
(Ene
rgy)
Energy demand is 1.4 times higher than GDP growth
Energy-GDP Elasticity
Avg.'85-20011998 1999 2000 20011994 1995 1996 19971990 1991 1992 1993
1.401.07Energy Elasticity 0.97
1985
1.47 1.08 1.511.24 1.34 1.64 1.94 -3.50 0.58 0.970.47
Source : EIA,DOE, BP Statistic Review of World Energy, EGAT
Energy Elasticity = ∆t Energy Consumption/ ∆t GDP
Ave. Energy Elasticity
1.4 : 1.0
New Target1 : 1
or lower
Thailand
The government used to assume a constant Energy Elasticity of 1.4 but the assumption did not hold.
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Choice of supply options considered in the PDP by EGAT
700 MW Coal-fired power plant
700 MW gas-fired combined cycle plant
230 MW gas-fired open cycle plant
1,000 MW nuclear plant
Hydro imports are politically negotiated outside of PDP processDSM/EE, RE, Distributed generation not integrated in the optimization process
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• EGAT (also MEA & PEA) became “Poster-child” of World Bank, other foreign aid institutions– Access to soft loans, technical assistance, etc.– Rapid growth of sector and electrification rates– Rapid economic growth and industrial development
Outcome of Thai top-down, centralized, monopoly model
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Thailand’s Fuel Mix for Power Generation
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Many successes but there are also lessons learned…
• Over-projection of GDP and demand forecasts leading to cycle of over-investments
• Abandonment and discrimination of community-scale, decentralized energy systems
• High dependency on imports• Impacts and conflicts• Inequality• Inefficiency• Uncompetitive and debt-ridden economy
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Comparison of GDP: forecast vs. actual
PDP2007 forecast
Case 2007 2008 2009 2010 20115-yr Avg 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
5-yr Avg
Low 4 4.5 4.7 4.5 4.5 4.4 4.8 5 5 5.3 5.3 5.1Base 4.8 5 5.2 5 5 5.0 5.3 5.5 5.5 5.8 5.8 5.6High 5 5.5 5.7 5.5 5.5 5.4 5.8 6 6 6.3 6.3 6.1Actual 5.0 2.5 -2.3 7.8 1.0* 2.8 *Bank of Thailand's estimate, as reported in Matichon newspaper on Feb 4, 2012
• GDP is the main assumption affecting the power demand forecast
• Assumptions of GDP growth used in PDP2007 vs Actual.
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Past demand forecasts compared to actual peak demand (MW)
Used in PDP2010
Actual demand
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Over-projections of demand leads to…
• Over-expansion• Cycles of over-investments and burden on
ratepayers• No incentive to promote energy efficiency and
renewable energy• Unnecessary social, environmental impacts
– Conflicts, violence and inequality
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Pak Mun Dam Story• A World Bank funded project completed in 1994• Run-of-river 126 MW hydroelectric dam on a main tributary of
Mekong River• Source of on-going conflicts due to impacts on fish migration
and livelihood of people
Photo: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pak_Mun_dam
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Electricity productionand consumption(GWh)
1700 families relocated
Loss of livelihood for >6200 families
Loss of 116 fish species (44%)
Fishery yield down 80%
65MaeHongSong
Source: MEA, EG
AT, Searin, Graphic: G
reen World Foundation
Dams Shopping Malls
Pak
Mun
Dam
Impacts of Pak Mun Dam alone
MBK
123
81
75
Siam Paragon
Central World
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Changing energy intensity over 20-yr period
Data source: Energy Information Administration 2008
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Office of the National Economic and Social Development Board
O F F I C E O F T H E P R I M E M I N I S T E R
Low Quality
Education Low Quality labour
Insufficient in
R&D Investm
ent
Slow Technology Development
Low
Qua
lity
for R
aw-m
ater
ial,
mac
hine
ry a
nd e
quip
men
t
(Low margin/return)
Low Bas
ic
infra
struc
ture
and L
ogisti
c
deve
lopm
ent
Enabling factors:MACROECONOMICMANAGEMENT
No
imm
unity
/ Hi
gh v
olati
lity
Fina
ncia
l Sys
tem
Lack of Saving
Lack of regulation on
industrial product’s
quality control
LowValue Creation
High Import
Contents & Sheer
size of export to GDP
High Energy Intensity& Low Efficiency& Unsustainable
structure
Macroeconomic Analysis
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Thailand’s power sector: sustainable economic development?
• Evident economic, material development…• …but not sustainable
– Needs to rely on ever-increasing energy imports– Vulnerability to supply disruptions due to high level
of centralization• Unproductive, inefficient consumption only made
possible by borrowing from the past (plundering resources) and the future (debt to be repaid)– Government debt now >40% of GDP – Household debt at 20-23% of income, to rise to 40%
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Thailand’s economic, power sector growth
Sustainable or quality economic, social
development
Energy obesity from unhealthy consumption habits that are financed
by debt
≠
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Is there a better way?
Yes!
(Full report available for download at
www.palangthai.org)
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Not all energy demand/GDP $$$ are equal: some industries have high energy, environmental costs but
low value to economy กลมอตสาหกรรม High Energy, Low VA, Low RCA
สดสวนความเขมขนของ
การใ ชพลงงาน
สดสวนมลคาเพมตอผลผลต
ดช นความไ ดเปรยบ
ทางการแขงขน(RCA)
อตสาหกรรมเหลกและเหลกกลา 0.331 0.151 0.19 การผลตสทา นำ า มนชกเงา 0.183 0.323 0.25
การผลตผลตภณฑพลาสตก 0.18 0.3 0.91 การผลตผลตภณฑ อโ ลหะ อน ๆ 0.178 0.336 0.5
การฟอก การพมพ การยอม 0.177 0.27 0การผลตเครองยนตและ กงหน 0.15 0.24 0.21การผลตเครองเรอนททำา ดวยโ ลหะ 0.146 0.253 0.56แบตเตอรและหมอเกบประ จไ ฟฟา 0.142 0.264 0.59การผลตเครองจกรและ อปกรณทางเกษตร 0.131 0.33 0.08การผลตอปกรณรถไ ฟ 0.126 0.276 0.01
เครองมอเครองใ ชไ ฟฟาอน ๆ 0.125 0.313 0.95 การผลตผลตภณฑ ทางเคมอน ๆ 0.122 0.319 0.41
การผลตเครองจกรและ อปกรณพเศษ 0.116 0.246 0.27การผลตผลตภณฑ จากกระดาษ 0.115 0.172 0.72
การผลตสนคาอตสาหกรรมอน ๆ 0.101 0.346 1.24การผลตนาฬกา 0.085 0.415 1.74การผลตเครองดนตรและ เครองกฬา 0.078 0.345 1.87
การบรรจกระปอง และการเกบรกษาผก ผลไ ม นำ า ผลไ ม 0.074 0.341 2.26การผลตผลตภณฑ จากไ มและ ไ มกอก 0.074 0.358 2.83
การผลตรองเทา ยกเวนรองเทายาง 0.072 0.388 1.94การผลตเครองเรอนเครองตกแตงททำา ดวยไ ม 0.072 0.507 1.82
การผลตผลตภณฑ อาหารอน ๆ 0.071 0.478 1.85การผลตอปกรณการถายภาพและสายตา 0.071 0.428 1.52การทำา เน อกระปอง 0.064 0.392 1.02การผลตผลตภณฑ หนงสตว 0.064 0.445 2.57
การอบ การบมใ บยาสบ 0.061 0.404 1.22 อตสาหกรรมเครองดมท ไ มมแอลกอฮอล และนำ า อดลม 0.059 0.426 1.08
อตสาหกรรมเกยวกบผลตภณฑ เชอก 0.051 0.418 1.11 โ รงงานทำา นำ า ตาล และผลตภณฑ อน ๆ 0.045 0.383 6.07
BOI investment privileges
should take into account
energy, economic
value considerations
High energy intensity
Low value added
Low competitiveness
Iron smelter industry
Demand for electricity is not a given.We can choose wisely what kind of industries or
economic activities are worth supporting (e.g. given investment privileges) based on their energy,
environmental costs and value to economy (local job creation, local content, value creation)
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Government Policy Frameworkaccording to Energy Industry Act 2007
4 dimensions of energy security
Energy Industry Act 2007 Indicators
Availability - Resource Adequacy- Min. dependency on imports- Diversification
- Reserve margin ≥15%- % energy imports-Shares of fuels
Affordability - Affordable cost of service- Min. exposure to price volatility
- Electricity cost (B/mo.)- % exposure to oil price
Efficiency - Energy & economic efficiency - Energy intensity (GWh/GDP)
Environment - Min. environmental impacts - GHG emissions- SO2 emissions
Need to make “energy security” and PDP accountable to
government policy frameworkFramework for evaluating PDPs
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Insulate roofs to keep cool in
T-5
Prioritize energy efficiency (least-cost supply options)
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Prioritize decentralized generation over centralized options:Cogeneration (Combined Heat and Power – CHP)
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Comparing PDPs
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
PDP 2010
nuclear
EE/DSM
Others
Oil/gas
RE DEDE
Cogen
Hydro imports
Hydro
Gas
Coal
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
PDP2012
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
PDP2010v2
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Dependency on electricity/fuel imports
2010 PDP2010 PDP2010v2
PDP20120
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
Uranium (Kazakhstan/Aus-tralia)
Power imports (Laos/Burma/Malay)
Diesel
Fuel Oil
Gas imports (Burma/Middle East)
Coal imports (Indonesia/Australia)
GWH
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Cost of service (Baht/month) change in 2030 compared to 2010
2010 PDP2010 PDP2010v2 PDP20120
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500Cost of service (Baht/month)
PDP2010 PDP2010v2 PDP2012
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%3.5%
-13.2%
1.3%
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Emissions of air pollutantschange in 2030 compared to 2010
GHG Nox SO2 TSP Hg-50%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
300%
350%
400%
450%
PDP2010PDP2010v2PDP2012
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Comparing PDPs against different elements of energy security change in 2030 compared to 2010
(Negative value = improved elements of energy security)
SO2 em
issions
GHG emiss
ions
Import d
epen
dency
energ
y inten
sity
Cost of s
ervice
Exposu
re to oil p
rice ris
ks
Concentra
tion (plant d
isruption)
PDP2010
SO2 em
issions
GHG emiss
ions
Import d
epen
dency
energ
y inten
sity
Cost of s
ervice
Exposu
re to oil p
rice ris
ks
Concentra
tion (plant d
isruption)
42%52% 56%
-17% -13% -21%
-97%
PDP2010v2
-15%
4%18%
-17%
1%
-19%
-97%
PDP2012
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Best practices from international experience• Case study of Pacific Northwest, USA (incl. Washington
State) & Integrated Resource Planning (IRP) process
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Objectives Defined
Data collection, systems analysis
Demand forecast scenarios (by end use) Meeting electricity requirement:
options
END-USE EFFICIENCY IMPROVEMENTS
T&D IMPROVEMENTS
GENERATIONPLANTS
UNIT COSTS OF ALTERNATIVES
($ / kWh)
LEAST COST MIX
ITERATION
GWh
YEAR
$/kWh
GWh
Strategies
ImplementationPeriodic
Monitoring
CBA
IRP
Flow
char
t
Source: D’Sa, A. (2005). "Integrated resource planning (IRP) and power sector reform in developing countries." Energy Policy 33(10): 1271-1285.
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Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
slide 40
Resource Costs: fair, comprehensive cost comparison
020406080
100120140160180200
Conservation New Hydro UltrasupercriticalCoal (ID)
Woody Residue NV CSP > S. ID
Leve
lized
Life
-cyc
le C
ost (
$200
6/M
Whr
)
EmissionsTransmission & LossesIntegrationPlant Cost
Source Northwest Power and Conservation Council, 6th Plan.
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Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
slide 41
6th Plan Resource Portfolio*
010002000300040005000600070008000
2010 2015 2020 2025
Cum
ulat
ive
Reso
urce
(Ave
rage
Meg
awat
ts)
SCCT
CCCT
Geothermal
New Wind
RPS Wind
EnergyEfficiency
*Expected Value Build Out. Actual build out schedule depends on future conditions
Source Northwest Power and Conservation Council, 6th Plan.
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Xayaburi dam vs. RE or EE investment
Economic Multiplier Effect
Source: US Department of Energy, The Jobs Connection: Energy Use and Local Economic Development, http://www.localenergy.org/pdfs/Document%20Library/The%20Jobs%20Connection.pdf Accessed March 8, 2013.
The economic multiplier, also known as the multiplier effect, is a measure of how much economic activity can be generated in a community by different combinations of purchasing and investment.
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Lessons for MyanmarThe engine of sustainable economic & social development
Environment
People(peace,
democracy, justice) Improved
living standards &economic opportunity:- Wealth generation- Access to electricity
- Education- Health
Electricity
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Large Plants
Customers
Small Power Producer
Mini-Grid
Customers
Parallel approach: extending the grid and encouraging rural mini-grids
NationalGrid
Top-down Bottom-up
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Special considerations for Myanmar
• “The last frontier”• How to leverage external
resources while maximizing benefits to the locals and without losing sovereign power
• How to generate income while having sufficient resources to sustainably meet growing domestic needs
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Strategy for Myanmar’s power sector planning, policy and development
• Integrated economic and energy policy and planning– Minimize waste, maximize efficiency– Choose economic activities wisely: low energy & resource
intensity, high economic value, high competitiveness– Maximize economic value for each energy investment:
“getting the most bang (jobs, investments, purchasing) for the $$$ invested”
• Prioritize utilization of distributed renewable over non-renewable resources
• Empower participation by citizens, entrepreneurs and communities in power sector planning and development
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Thank youQuestions and discussion
Email: chom at palangthai dot orgwww.palangthai.org
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Large Plants
Customers
Small Power Producer
Mini-Grid
Customers
Parallel approach: extending the grid and encouraging rural mini-grids
NationalGrid
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Power export $ Donor funds $Electrification Fund
Regulatory framework allows for fair treatment of both
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Centralized energy is also more costly
Thailand
PDP 2007 requires 2 trillion baht to implement, comprising: million B
• generation 1,482,000• transmission 595,000
Transmission adds 40% to generation
costs
Decentralized generation brings down costs
Ireland – retail costs for new capacity
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
8.00
100% Central / 0% DE 75% / 25% 50% / 50% 25% / 75% 0% Central / 100% DE
% DE of Total Generation
Euro
Cen
ts /
KWh
O&M of New Capacity Fuel
Capital Amorization + Profit On New Capacity T&D Amorization on New T&D
Source: World Alliance for Decentralized Energy, April 2005
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ROIC = Net profit after tax Invested capital EGAT 6.4% MEA PEA
• Financial criteria for utilities link profits to investments– Thailand uses outdated
return-based regulation– WB’s promoted financial
criteria such as self financing ratio (SFR) also have similar effects
• ROIC (Return on Invested Capital means: the more you invest, the more profits
Incentive structure for utilities:the high their investment budget, the more profits
5.8%
Result : EGAT favors capital-intensive investments (centralized
plants) by its organization or subsidiary companies.Allowing more EE or RE generation hurts EGAT’s bottom
line
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Coal18%
Natural Gas73%
Renewable2%
Hydro3%
Fuel Oil0.34%
Imported4%
Diesel0.03%
53
Thailand’s Fuel Mix for Power Generation
Total Installed Capacity: 31,517 MW (2010)
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Source: Puget Sound Energy
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Pacific NW: meeting growing demand through mainly investments in RE and EE
Source: Northwest Power and Conservation Council
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000Coal-fired (ICG) (MW)
CCGTurbine (MW)
SCGTurbine (MW)
Wind (MW)
Energy Efficiency (aMW)
Cum
ulat
ive
Capa
city
(MW
)*
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Source: Charles, Gillian and Tom Eckman. 2010. Regional Conservation Progress Report – Results from 2010. Regional Technical Forum. http://www.nwcouncil.org/energy/rtf/consreport/2010/Default.asp
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Cost of new conservation less than $0.02/kWh
Source: Charles, Gillian and Tom Eckman. 2010. Regional Conservation Progress Report – Results from 2010. Regional Technical Forum. http://www.nwcouncil.org/energy/rtf/consreport/2010/Default.asp
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Insulate roofs to keep cool in
T-5
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Source: The 5th NW Electric Power and ConservationPlan
Supply options in NW USA
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Source: The 5th NW Electric Power and ConservationPlan
Supply options in NW USA
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Energy waste in a typical pumping system
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Important conceptual framework
• Rural electrification ≠ grid expansion• Rural electrification = off-/mini-grid + grid expansion
• Planning for domestic electricity demand (electrification) = Power Development Plan (PDP) process
• Planning for hydropower export should be treated separately, with consideration of other ways of generating income (e.g. tourism, agriculture, industrial development) as alternatives
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Power sector development strategy
• Energy security– Ability to meet demand through sustainable and
efficient utilization of resources at reasonable cost• Alternative energy development• Energy prices and safety• Conservation and efficiency• Environmental protection
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Thailand’s experience
• Emphasis of top-down centralized model• Treating demand as given• Emphasis on expansion and unsustainable
centralized technology options• Lack of meaningful participation
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Strategy
• Efficient, sustainable utilization of resources– Self-reliance
• Self-reliance
– Efficiency (production and consumption)– Sustainable utilization of natural resources– Value to economy– Leveraging external resources– Role of private sector– Myanmar being “the last frontier”
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Total Final Energy Consumption & GDP
4.10
4.20
4.30
4.40
4.50
4.60
4.70
4.80
3.05 3.10 3.15 3.20 3.25 3.30 3.35 3.40 3.45 3.50 3.55
log (GDP)
log
(Ene
rgy)
Energy demand is 1.4 times higher than GDP growth
Energy-GDP Elasticity
Avg.'85-20011998 1999 2000 20011994 1995 1996 19971990 1991 1992 1993
1.401.07Energy Elasticity 0.97
1985
1.47 1.08 1.511.24 1.34 1.64 1.94 -3.50 0.58 0.970.47
Source : EIA,DOE, BP Statistic Review of World Energy, EGAT
Energy Elasticity = ∆t Energy Consumption/ ∆t GDP
Ave. Energy Elasticity1.4 : 1.0
New Target1 : 1
or lower
Thailand
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0.89
1.61
2.14
1.80 1.69 1.81
1.36
0.97
1.351.48
1.85
1.42 1.45 1.47 1.44 1.49
-4.62
0.25 0.30
1.77
2.77
1.46
0.941.24 1.15 1.07
0.81 0.73
0.11
1.34
-3.86
2.54
-5.00
-4.00
-3.00
-2.00
-1.00
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
2012
(Q1-
Q3)
Electricity Elasticity (Yearly)
Source: http://doc-eppo.eppo.go.th/key_indicators/elasticity/EE_EI_ELE.ppt
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LN(PG) = 1.6985 LN(GDP) -13.8995R
10.60
10.70
10.80
10.90
11.00
11.10
11.20
11.30
11.40
11.50
11.60
14.40 14.50 14.60 14.70 14.80 14.90 15.00
LN(P
G)
LN(GDP)
Power Generation Elasticity (1992-2001)
Power Generation Elasticity AVG. = 1.6985
Source: http://doc-eppo.eppo.go.th/key_indicators/elasticity/EE_EI_ELE.ppt
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LN(PG) = 1.0661 LN(GDP) -4.3664R 5
11.40
11.50
11.60
11.70
11.80
11.90
12.00
12.10
14.85 14.90 14.95 15.00 15.05 15.10 15.15 15.20 15.25 15.30 15.35 15.40
LN(P
G)
LN(GDP)
Power Generation Elasticity (2002-2011)
Power Generation Elasticity AVG. = 1.0661
Source: http://doc-eppo.eppo.go.th/key_indicators/elasticity/EE_EI_ELE.ppt
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14.4 14.3 14.715.6 16.3 16.8 17.5 18.1 18.0 18.7
19.620.9 21.6
22.323.2
24.1 24.7
26.6
29.028.1
29.130.2 30.9 30.8 31.2 31.4 31.5 31.3 31.0 31.7
32.5 32.433.6
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
GWh
/Bill
ion
Baht
Electricity Consumption Intensity
Source: http://doc-eppo.eppo.go.th/key_indicators/elasticity/EE_EI_ELE.ppt
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ในความเปนจรง มความไมแนนอนจากเหตการณ“ ” ทไมคาดหมาย
• การพยากรณไฟฟาหรอเศรษฐกจมกจะไมไดนำาเหตการณ “ทไม” คาดหมาย มาพจารณาเพราะยากแกการคาดหมาย
– ตวอยางเชน วกฤตการเงนในป 2540 การพงสงของราคานำ ามนโลก ความ รนแรงทางการเมอง และอทกภยรายแรงในรอบ 50 ป
• ในอนาคต ความไมแนนอนจากภาวะเศรษฐกจโลก สถานการณดาน การเมองในประเทศ และสภาพภมอากาศทแปรปรวน คาดวาจะยงม
อยตอไป
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
-15.0
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
Actual GDP growth (%)
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Comparison of trend lines with historical peak consumption
y = 4E-60e0.0731x
R2 = 0.9433
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
MW
Historic peak demand เอกซ โพเนนเชยล (Historic peak demand)
y = 831.43x - 2E+06R2 = 0.9894
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
MW
Historic peak demand เชงเสน (Historic peak demand)
Exponential Linear
Past demand trajectory was linear but how come the official demand projections have
always assumed exponential trend and over-estimated?
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Source: Energy for Environment Foundation, Study Project for Load Forecast – Executive Summary.
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Source: Energy for Environment Foundation, Study Project for Load Forecast – Executive Summary.
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Source: Energy for Environment Foundation, Study Project for Load Forecast – Executive Summary.
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Source: Energy for Environment Foundation, Study Project for Load Forecast – Executive Summary.
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Source: Energy for Environment Foundation, Study Project for Load Forecast – Executive Summary.
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Source: Energy for Environment Foundation, Study Project for Load Forecast – Executive Summary.
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Needed: bottom up forecasts
• Thailand should invest in load forecasts that use a bottom-up approach
• using industry-specific and sector-specific data on:– electricity demand trends– technology transitions trends