Problem shifting by sustainability criteria?Consider global land use for domestic consumption of biomass based products
Presentation 2 June 2010
Green Week, Seminar"Sustainability Criteria for Biomass"Brussels
Dr. Stefan Bringezu
Member of the International Panel for Sustainable Resource Management
DirectorMaterial Flows and Resource ManagementWuppertal Institute
Biodiversity – our lifeline
Stefan Bringezu 2
The presentation
– Drivers of biodiversity loss
– Land use change for biofuels
– Growing demand for forest biomass
– Future vision and recommendations
Stefan Bringezu 3
Main direct drivers of change in biodiversity and ecosystems
§ Habitat change and eutrophication most important
Source: MEA (2005)
Stefan Bringezu 4
Global land use: settlements and agriculture expand while forests decline (109 hectare)
“agriculture“
deserts, glaciers, others
settlements, infrastructures
2050
3.9
4.1grass-lands
5.0
0.36
2000
1.5crops
1.5arable land
3.5perma-
nent pastures
4.4
1.4
1961
3.1agric. land:+ 7% to 31%
cropland + 7% to 27%
+ 72% to 118%
+?
- 3% to -23%
-?
Sources: Benedikt-Kemp et al. 2002, MEA 2005, GEO 4, OECD (2008)
forests
Stefan Bringezu 5
Conversion of terrestrial biomes
– Tropical forests, grasslands and savannahs are expected to decline
– Only temperate forests will expand
Source: MEA (2005)
Stefan Bringezu 6
Global land use – trend scenarios
§ asd
Source: Van Vuuren and Faber (2009) after FAO, IAASTD, Van Vuuren et al.
Stefan Bringezu 7
Global crop yields grow slower than in past5years moving averages (%)
Signifance of t-statistics: ** p<0.05, *** p<0.01; Data source: based on FAOSTAT online data 2008
** **
***
***
***
***
Stefan Bringezu 8
Global trends of population, yields and diet: cropland will expand for feeding the world with protein rich meals
Source: UN population statistics ; FAO (2003, 2006); estimates based on Gallagher report 2008
60
80
100
120
140
160
2004 2030
Inde
x 20
04 =
100
Population
Cropland
Cropland per capita
Cereals yields inDCMeat consumptionin DCMeat consumption
Stefan Bringezu 9
Interim conclusion
Ø Built-up land expands at the expense of agricultural land
Ø Whereas European forests grow, global forest area declines
Ø Only to feed the world population will require the expansion of global cropland
Ø Any additional demand for non-food biomass will add on top of this
Stefan Bringezu 10
Land is a limiting factor for biofuels development
§ Conservative estimates of projected land use for biofuel crops vary between 35- 166 Mha for 2020.
§ Estimates of long-term potential land requirements for biofuels vary widely and depend on the basic assumptions made - mainly type of feedstock, geographical location and level of input and yield increase.
§ Ravindranath et al (2009) estimated that 118-508 Mha would be required in 2030 to provide 10% of transport fuel demand with 1st gen biofuels. For comparison, total cropland is about 1,500 Mha.
§ Land use change has a range of potential implications, including on GHG balance and biodiversity.
Forest conversion to cropland ...
.... and plantations
Stefan Bringezu 11
Implications of land use changeGHG emissions - mitigation by 1st generation biofuels questionable
GHG balance estimate*, in 2030
§ 10% biofuels could substitute fossil fuels emitting 0.84 Gt CO2
§ substitution potential 20-90%:0.17-0.76 Gt CO2
§ LUC induced additional emissions: 0.75 to 1.83 Gt CO2
*Ravindranath, N.H. et al. (2009) GHG Implications of Land Use and Land Conversion to Biofuel Crops. In: R. W. Howarth and S. Bringezu (editors), Biofuels: Environmental Consequences and Interactions with Changing Land Use. Report of the InternatinalSCOPE Biofuels Project. (http://cip.cornell.edu/biofuels/)
Stefan Bringezu 12
Implications of land use changeExpansion of sugar cane at the expense of high biodiversity
§ about 20% of Cerrado and Pantanal is rated as high priority for conservation
§ expansion of sugarcane continuesalso in these (non-protected) areas
§ despite of otherland availablealready converted
priorityconservation areasof high relevance(green)potential area forsugar caneplantation (purple)
Stefan Bringezu 13
Implications of land use changeBiodiversity loss due to biofuel feed-stock production
§ losses due to habitat change, invasive species, pollution§ benefits from mitigated climate change can not compensate losses by
habitat conversion for decades
Source: Eickhout et al. 2008.
Stefan Bringezu 14
Global Land Use for the consumption of Agriculture goodsGLUA – provisional data
mill ha
ha/cap
§ The EU is a net importerof agricultural land
Source: Wuppertal Institute/H. Schütz
Stefan Bringezu 15
Interim conclusion
Ø Expansion of global cropland for fuel crops may lead to inreased net GHG emissions over the next 30 years as well as losses of biodiversity
Ø This cannot be avoided by production standards and product certification as longas the demand for biomass is growing globally (indirect land use changes)
Ø The EU is already net importer of agricultural land
Stefan Bringezu 16
Options for more sustainable use of resources
§ Optimize agricultural production
§ Restore degraded land
§ Stationary use of biofuels
§ Use of waste and residues
§ Cascading use of biomass
§ Mineral based solar systems
§ Increased material and energy efficiency in transport, industry and households
Stefan Bringezu 17
Potential use of abandoned land
Source: Campbell et al. 2007
Campbell et al. estimate 385 - 472 Mhaabandoned land whichcould produce 32 – 41 EJ/a
However, new cultivation§ may competes with
nature restoration§ requires higher inputs
(if land is degraded)§ may save less GHG
(if forests regrow onproductive land)
Stefan Bringezu 18
Not only liquid biofuels, also wood pellets are traded betweencontinents
IEA Energy Task 40: Annual international traded volumes of ethanol, biodiesel and wood pellets > 4 million tonnes in 2009 and increasingrapidly
Source: Schouwenberg et al. 2009, Vancouver
Stefan Bringezu 19
Bioenergy imports and exportsShare of trade in domestic primary biomass supply in 2004
Source: Junginger et al. 2008; UK and Belgium data refer to 2005
Swedish policy target: to become 50% bioenergybased up to 2020
Stefan Bringezu 20
Rising concern on 2nd generation biofuels and advanced traditional bioenergy (e.g. pellets)
§ Policy targets rely on uncertain env. + econ.performance
§ Hydrocarbon/cellulosic BF need lignocellulosis
§ Pressure on forests (deforestation, conversion to plantations)
§ Growing competition between material and energy useand between power/heat vs. transport fuel use
§ Increasing net imports of wooden biomass(e.g. Scandinavia being supplied from Canada)
Source: IEA 2008
Stefan Bringezu 21
Ongoing research: national consumption of global forest resources and related environmental impacts
§ How to measure and assess national use of global forests (forboth material and energy purposes)?
Stefan Bringezu 22
Outlook – four visions for a sustainable resource management
§ Resource efficient and recycling based industries
§ Steady stocks societies
§ Solarized infrastructures
§ Balanced bio-economyand bioniconomy
Source: CSEM
Source: ETH
Source: Bringezu & Bleischwitz 2009Source: Egretta; Thula: C.Croso/FAN
Stefan Bringezu 23
Balanced Bio-Economy and BioniconomyCharacteristics
§ Bio-economy largely based on biomass use, interwoven with and nested in natural eco-systems
§ Balanced with regard to- food vs. non-food (food first)- production consistent with local environmental conditions (e.g.
risk of erosion, eutrophication): "Sustainable Production"- domestic and foreign supply and consumption level not
exceeding local, regional and global capacities: "Sustainable Consumption"
§ Long-term vision: Bioniconomy- making use of biological principles ("bionic")- carbon recycling and industrial photosynthesis
(mineral based solar systems)
Stefan Bringezu 24
Recommendations
§ Production standards and product certification of biomass may behelpful but are unsufficient ("too much of a good thing")
§ Overall consumption of biomass & energy demand must not exceed sustainable levels
§ Current policy mandates, targets, quota need to be reconsidered(bias towards energy use of biomass – risk of triggering undue demand)
§ develop EU, national and regional resource management programmes - integrating climate and biodiversity protection, security of supply (food, materials, energy),
- considering global land and biomass/minerals use for domestic consumption (limit burden shifting)
Stefan Bringezu 25
Many thanks for your attention !
http://www.unep.fr/scp/rpanel/biofuels.htm ISBN: 978-1-906093-26-6
