problem shifting by sustainability...
TRANSCRIPT
Problem shifting by sustainability criteria?Consider global land use for domestic consumption of biomass based products
Presentation 2 June 2010
Green Week, Seminar"Sustainability Criteria for Biomass"Brussels
Dr. Stefan Bringezu
Member of the International Panel for Sustainable Resource Management
DirectorMaterial Flows and Resource ManagementWuppertal Institute
Biodiversity – our lifeline
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The presentation
– Drivers of biodiversity loss
– Land use change for biofuels
– Growing demand for forest biomass
– Future vision and recommendations
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Main direct drivers of change in biodiversity and ecosystems
§ Habitat change and eutrophication most important
Source: MEA (2005)
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Global land use: settlements and agriculture expand while forests decline (109 hectare)
“agriculture“
deserts, glaciers, others
settlements, infrastructures
2050
3.9
4.1grass-lands
5.0
0.36
2000
1.5crops
1.5arable land
3.5perma-
nent pastures
4.4
1.4
1961
3.1agric. land:+ 7% to 31%
cropland + 7% to 27%
+ 72% to 118%
+?
- 3% to -23%
-?
Sources: Benedikt-Kemp et al. 2002, MEA 2005, GEO 4, OECD (2008)
forests
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Conversion of terrestrial biomes
– Tropical forests, grasslands and savannahs are expected to decline
– Only temperate forests will expand
Source: MEA (2005)
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Global land use – trend scenarios
§ asd
Source: Van Vuuren and Faber (2009) after FAO, IAASTD, Van Vuuren et al.
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Global crop yields grow slower than in past5years moving averages (%)
Signifance of t-statistics: ** p<0.05, *** p<0.01; Data source: based on FAOSTAT online data 2008
** **
***
***
***
***
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Global trends of population, yields and diet: cropland will expand for feeding the world with protein rich meals
Source: UN population statistics ; FAO (2003, 2006); estimates based on Gallagher report 2008
60
80
100
120
140
160
2004 2030
Inde
x 20
04 =
100
Population
Cropland
Cropland per capita
Cereals yields inDCMeat consumptionin DCMeat consumption
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Interim conclusion
Ø Built-up land expands at the expense of agricultural land
Ø Whereas European forests grow, global forest area declines
Ø Only to feed the world population will require the expansion of global cropland
Ø Any additional demand for non-food biomass will add on top of this
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Land is a limiting factor for biofuels development
§ Conservative estimates of projected land use for biofuel crops vary between 35- 166 Mha for 2020.
§ Estimates of long-term potential land requirements for biofuels vary widely and depend on the basic assumptions made - mainly type of feedstock, geographical location and level of input and yield increase.
§ Ravindranath et al (2009) estimated that 118-508 Mha would be required in 2030 to provide 10% of transport fuel demand with 1st gen biofuels. For comparison, total cropland is about 1,500 Mha.
§ Land use change has a range of potential implications, including on GHG balance and biodiversity.
Forest conversion to cropland ...
.... and plantations
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Implications of land use changeGHG emissions - mitigation by 1st generation biofuels questionable
GHG balance estimate*, in 2030
§ 10% biofuels could substitute fossil fuels emitting 0.84 Gt CO2
§ substitution potential 20-90%:0.17-0.76 Gt CO2
§ LUC induced additional emissions: 0.75 to 1.83 Gt CO2
*Ravindranath, N.H. et al. (2009) GHG Implications of Land Use and Land Conversion to Biofuel Crops. In: R. W. Howarth and S. Bringezu (editors), Biofuels: Environmental Consequences and Interactions with Changing Land Use. Report of the InternatinalSCOPE Biofuels Project. (http://cip.cornell.edu/biofuels/)
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Implications of land use changeExpansion of sugar cane at the expense of high biodiversity
§ about 20% of Cerrado and Pantanal is rated as high priority for conservation
§ expansion of sugarcane continuesalso in these (non-protected) areas
§ despite of otherland availablealready converted
priorityconservation areasof high relevance(green)potential area forsugar caneplantation (purple)
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Implications of land use changeBiodiversity loss due to biofuel feed-stock production
§ losses due to habitat change, invasive species, pollution§ benefits from mitigated climate change can not compensate losses by
habitat conversion for decades
Source: Eickhout et al. 2008.
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Global Land Use for the consumption of Agriculture goodsGLUA – provisional data
mill ha
ha/cap
§ The EU is a net importerof agricultural land
Source: Wuppertal Institute/H. Schütz
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Interim conclusion
Ø Expansion of global cropland for fuel crops may lead to inreased net GHG emissions over the next 30 years as well as losses of biodiversity
Ø This cannot be avoided by production standards and product certification as longas the demand for biomass is growing globally (indirect land use changes)
Ø The EU is already net importer of agricultural land
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Options for more sustainable use of resources
§ Optimize agricultural production
§ Restore degraded land
§ Stationary use of biofuels
§ Use of waste and residues
§ Cascading use of biomass
§ Mineral based solar systems
§ Increased material and energy efficiency in transport, industry and households
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Potential use of abandoned land
Source: Campbell et al. 2007
Campbell et al. estimate 385 - 472 Mhaabandoned land whichcould produce 32 – 41 EJ/a
However, new cultivation§ may competes with
nature restoration§ requires higher inputs
(if land is degraded)§ may save less GHG
(if forests regrow onproductive land)
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Not only liquid biofuels, also wood pellets are traded betweencontinents
IEA Energy Task 40: Annual international traded volumes of ethanol, biodiesel and wood pellets > 4 million tonnes in 2009 and increasingrapidly
Source: Schouwenberg et al. 2009, Vancouver
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Bioenergy imports and exportsShare of trade in domestic primary biomass supply in 2004
Source: Junginger et al. 2008; UK and Belgium data refer to 2005
Swedish policy target: to become 50% bioenergybased up to 2020
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Rising concern on 2nd generation biofuels and advanced traditional bioenergy (e.g. pellets)
§ Policy targets rely on uncertain env. + econ.performance
§ Hydrocarbon/cellulosic BF need lignocellulosis
§ Pressure on forests (deforestation, conversion to plantations)
§ Growing competition between material and energy useand between power/heat vs. transport fuel use
§ Increasing net imports of wooden biomass(e.g. Scandinavia being supplied from Canada)
Source: IEA 2008
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Ongoing research: national consumption of global forest resources and related environmental impacts
§ How to measure and assess national use of global forests (forboth material and energy purposes)?
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Outlook – four visions for a sustainable resource management
§ Resource efficient and recycling based industries
§ Steady stocks societies
§ Solarized infrastructures
§ Balanced bio-economyand bioniconomy
Source: CSEM
Source: ETH
Source: Bringezu & Bleischwitz 2009Source: Egretta; Thula: C.Croso/FAN
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Balanced Bio-Economy and BioniconomyCharacteristics
§ Bio-economy largely based on biomass use, interwoven with and nested in natural eco-systems
§ Balanced with regard to- food vs. non-food (food first)- production consistent with local environmental conditions (e.g.
risk of erosion, eutrophication): "Sustainable Production"- domestic and foreign supply and consumption level not
exceeding local, regional and global capacities: "Sustainable Consumption"
§ Long-term vision: Bioniconomy- making use of biological principles ("bionic")- carbon recycling and industrial photosynthesis
(mineral based solar systems)
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Recommendations
§ Production standards and product certification of biomass may behelpful but are unsufficient ("too much of a good thing")
§ Overall consumption of biomass & energy demand must not exceed sustainable levels
§ Current policy mandates, targets, quota need to be reconsidered(bias towards energy use of biomass – risk of triggering undue demand)
§ develop EU, national and regional resource management programmes - integrating climate and biodiversity protection, security of supply (food, materials, energy),
- considering global land and biomass/minerals use for domestic consumption (limit burden shifting)
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Many thanks for your attention !
http://www.unep.fr/scp/rpanel/biofuels.htm ISBN: 978-1-906093-26-6