Solving a global problem:Scotland’s role
Scotland’s 2020 Climate Group June SummitUniversity of Stirling 5 June 2015
Jim SkeaResearch Councils UK Energy Strategy Fellow
Action at all scales
Globally• Ambitious aspirations
- 2˚ warming target
• Not matched by offers on the table
A budget for cumulative CO2 emissions to limit global temperatures
Source: IPCC
2◦C
3◦C
4◦C
today
Cancun Agreement 2010
Possible emission pathways for around 2 degrees
Zero emissions!
Source: IIASA SSP database
Possible emission pathways getting to around 3 degrees
Source: IIASA SSP database
Biomass with CCS in 2 degree scenarios
100 EJ = 500 Longannets
Source: IIASA SSP database
Plans and strategies have expanded since 2007…75% of global emissions covered by targets end 2014
EuropeTalking the talk but:
• Low carbon prices
• Back-loaded effort
• High carbon in the energy mix
Problems with emissions trading – no price
….and surplus allowances
Mr Micawber’s climate policy – something will turn up
Connected markets – electricity fuelling
UK• Cross-party consensus intact
• Accountancy challenges emerging
• Some fraying at the edges
Current and planned policy against future targets (non-traded sector)
Steps to the 4th carbon budget – non-traded
Traffic lights for the UK power sector
Progress on the ground…. …….but challenges with carbon accounting
Renewable generation as a percentage of consumption
The renewables pipeline
Good progress on insulation
Summary
Globally - cognitive dissonance
• Aspirations (2˚) out of line with offers on the table
Europe – good intentions as always
• Progress, but ETS not delivering and tendency to postpone ambition – “grant me low-carbon but not yet”
UK - Cross-party consensus intact; early carbon budgets being met, but
• risk of policies withering through lack of urgency
Scotland – tricky headlines, good story
• Not meeting the targets, but things are happening on the ground