Solving a global problem:Scotland’s role

Scotland’s 2020 Climate Group June SummitUniversity of Stirling 5 June 2015

Jim SkeaResearch Councils UK Energy Strategy Fellow

Action at all scales

Globally• Ambitious aspirations

- 2˚ warming target

• Not matched by offers on the table

A budget for cumulative CO2 emissions to limit global temperatures

Source: IPCC

2◦C

3◦C

4◦C

today

Cancun Agreement 2010

Possible emission pathways for around 2 degrees

Zero emissions!

Source: IIASA SSP database

Possible emission pathways getting to around 3 degrees

Source: IIASA SSP database

Biomass with CCS in 2 degree scenarios

100 EJ = 500 Longannets

Source: IIASA SSP database

Plans and strategies have expanded since 2007…75% of global emissions covered by targets end 2014

EuropeTalking the talk but:

• Low carbon prices

• Back-loaded effort

• High carbon in the energy mix

Problems with emissions trading – no price

….and surplus allowances

Mr Micawber’s climate policy – something will turn up

Connected markets – electricity fuelling

UK• Cross-party consensus intact

• Accountancy challenges emerging

• Some fraying at the edges

Current and planned policy against future targets (non-traded sector)

Steps to the 4th carbon budget – non-traded

Traffic lights for the UK power sector

Scotland

Progress on the ground…. …….but challenges with carbon accounting

Renewable generation as a percentage of consumption

The renewables pipeline

Good progress on insulation

Summary

Globally - cognitive dissonance

• Aspirations (2˚) out of line with offers on the table

Europe – good intentions as always

• Progress, but ETS not delivering and tendency to postpone ambition – “grant me low-carbon but not yet”

UK - Cross-party consensus intact; early carbon budgets being met, but

• risk of policies withering through lack of urgency

Scotland – tricky headlines, good story

• Not meeting the targets, but things are happening on the ground