Slide 1

PV output fluctuates (80% dropouts in 5 sec)TEP will have 250 MW of PV by 2013TEP needs forecasts to ramp up generatorsNo forecasts are good enough yetThe Problem:Our Solutions:Advanced Numerical Weather ModelIrradiance Network and Velocity ModelCloud movie analysis

AC Power (kW)The Problem:ACC Regulations require Big Solar. Now Utility Operators need Forecasts.Aug 9Aug 10time

Our Solution #1

Numerical WeatherModel Forecast

Good for:2-hr averages40 hours in advance100 Rooftops +Wind Forecast

Good for:10 minute detail1-2 hours in advance

Our Solution #2

5

23570 MW DG5121035506.43425Distribution of ~280 MW