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Weekly Review
The KSE-100 index gained 4.76%WoW to close at its all-time high level of 28,408 points. The
key reasons behind the markets rebound was foreign buying interest on the back of the up-
coming re-composition of MSCI FM 100 Index where Pakistan's weight is more than likely to
go up to 8.9% with inclusion of 3 more stocks (PSO, LUCK and BAHL), taking total stocks
from Pakistan to twelve. In this regard FIPI clocked in at US$35.8mn for the week, up nearly
42.0xWoW and average traded volumes increased by 89%WoW to 291mn shares while aver-
age traded value rose by 30%WoW to US$139mn. Major news flow during the week included
1) Continuation of peace talks with TTP; 2) LUCKs grinding facility in Iraq has reportedly com-
menced production and 3) SAS a fully held subsidiary of Lafarge SA is evaluating a potential
divestment of its shares in LPCL. On the economic front included 1) Mar14 CPI was recorded
at 8.53%YoY leading to 9MFY14 CPI average of 8.6%YoY, 2) latest T-bill auction where an
amount of PkR26bn was raised vs. the pre-auction target of PkR125bn (we believe subdued
interest in T-bills is due to ongoing shift from shorter to longer maturities), and 3) With materi-
alization of foreign flows, fx reserves reportedly crossed US$10bn watermark on Mar 3114.
Major Gainers during the week included INDU (+12.8%WoW), LUCK (+12.5%WoW), HCAR
(+11.7%WoW) and SHEL (+10.8%WoW) while major losers included AGTL (-3.5%WoW),
AKBL (-1.4%WoW), ABL (-1.1%WoW) and PSO (-0.9%WoW). Top five volume leaders dur-
ing the week included LPCL (174mn shares), SMBL (107.5mn shares), BOP (91mn shares),
LOTCHEM (88mn shares) and NIB (76mn shares).
St ockSmar tAKD Equity Research / Pakistan
Pakistan Weekly Update
Important disclosures including investment banking relationships and analyst certification at end of this report. AKD Securities does and seeks to do business with companiescovered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of the report. Investorsshould consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.
Important disclosures
Copyright2014 AKD Securities Limited. All rights reserved. The information provided on this document is not intendedfor distribution to, or use by, any person or entity in any jurisdiction or country where such distribution or use would becontrary to law or regulation or which would subject AKD Securities or its affiliates to any registration requirement withinsuch jurisdiction or country. Neither the information, nor any opinion contained in this document constitutes a solicitationor offer by AKD Securities or its affiliates to buy or sell any securities or provide any investment advice or service. AKDSecurities does not warrant the accuracy of the information provided herein.
www.akdsecurities.net
AKD SECURITIESMember: Karachi Stock Exchange
Find AKD research on Bloomberg(AKDS), firstcall.com
and Reuters Knowledge
With KSE-100 Index gaining 1,292 points in the outgoing week, we believe investors should
wait for the market to take a dip before taking fresh positions. Saying that, we feel market
movement in the coming week will primarily be dictated by foreign flows. Spotlight is also likely
to be on the dialogue between the govt and Taliban. In our view, attention should be given to
stocks which are yet to ride the ongoing rally, these include NBP, BAFL, NML and OGDC.
Outlook
4 April 2014
Top-5 Volume Leaders
Sym bol Volum e (m n)
LPCL : 174.43
SMBL : 107.50
BOP : 91.16
LOTCHEM : 88.84
NIB : 76.58
Indices KSE-100 KSE-30
This week 28,408.03 20,030.28
Last week 27,116.13 19,200.54
Change 4.76% 4.32%
Indices KMI-30 Allshare
This week 46,569.72 21,223.18
Last week 44,488.95 20,379.22
Change 4.68% 4.14%
Mkt Cap. PkRbn US$bn
This week 6,840.77 69.70
Last week 6,573.10 67.05
Change 4.07% 3.96%
Avg. Daily Turnover ('mn shares)
This week 291.80
Last week 154.00
Change 89.48%
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Apr
-13
May
-13
May
-13
Jun
-13
Ju
l-13
Aug
-13
Sep
-13
Oc
t-
13
Nov
-13
Dec
-13
Jan
-14
Fe
b-
14
Mar
-14
Apr
-14
(mn)
(Index)
18,000
19,500
21,000
22,500
24,000
25,50027,000
28,500
30,000
Volume (LHS) KSE-100 Index
Index & Volume Chart
Source: KSE & AKD Research
Universe Gainers & Losers
5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
INDU
LUCK
HCAR
SHEL
ICI
FATIMA
PSO
ABL
AKBL
AGTL
27,160
27,566
27,932
28,336 28,408
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
500,000
31
Mar
1Apr
2Apr
3Apr
4Apr
(Shrs'000)
26,400
26,600
26,800
27,000
27,200
27,400
27,600
27,800
28,000
28,200
28,400
28,600
(Index)
Read Volume LHS KSE100Index RHS
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StockSmart
Pakistan Weekly Update
This Weeks Daily Reports
2
Apr 04, 2014
Apr 03, 2014
Apr 02, 2014
Banks:Thelongandshortofit,(AKDDaily,Apr04,2014)
TheBankingsector(+13%CYTD)hasbeeninthelimelightoverthelastfewweeks,with
inial rally in larger banks now being tracked by smaller names where the combined
marketcapofbankswithlessthanPkR100bnindepositsroseby11%yesterday.Other
thananycasespecificM&Aspeculaon,weaributethiscatchuprallytogeneralre
rang in Banks on the back of ongoing macro improvement with the recent shi to
higheryielding PIBs (at the expense of Tbills) acng as the trigger. Within this back
drop,thereareseveralbanksthathaveyettoperformatparwiththeirpeersandalso
appeararacveon valuaon mulples (P/B, Mkt Cap/Deposits).These include BAFL
(TP:PkR32/share),NBP(TP:PkR60/share),FABL,BOKand JSBL,whichwebelievecan
potenallyoutperforminthenearterm.Fromabroadervantage,providedthebanking
sector gradually rerates to 200307 levels (when GDP growth averaged 5%+pa), the
bankingsectorcanpotenallydeliverreturnsof18%paacross20142017,whichmakes
evenUBLandHBLappearasprofitablemediumtermbets.
PakistanMarket:ClearwinnerinthenewMSCIFM100!,(AKDDaily,Apr03,2014)
AsperaMSCIpressrelease,theproposalsforthenewcalculaonmethodologyforthe
MSCIFM100Indexhavebeenapproved,includingapplyingacapof40%tothecumu
laveweightsofthetwolargestcountriesinthebasket(Kuwait+Nigeria)andapplying
ahigherfreefloatadjustedmarketcaprequirementtoIndexconstuents(US$240mn).
As a result, we understand that Pakistans weight in the FM basket may increase to
about8.9%fromcloseto4.3%atpresent.Atthesame me,theMSCIsimulaonindi
cates that 12 Pakistani companies may be represented in the FM basket, with LUCK,
PSOandBAHLappearingtobenewentrants.WithPakistansettoemergeasthe3rd
largest FM market (broadly at par with Argenna) amidst an ongoing macro turna
round,weexpectPakistantoincreasinglyregisteronforeigninvestorsradars,vindicatedbythecumulavenetFPIinflowofUS$21.3mninthelast3tradingsessions.Atcur
rentlevels,nameswelikeincludeBAFL,NBP,NML,DGKCandOGDC.
ABL:TPRevision,(AKDDaily,Apr02,2014)
WerevisitourearningscaseforABLpostCY13resultsandraiseourearningsesmates
by5%onaverageacrosstheinvestmenthorizon.Togetherwithslightlyhigherpayout
projecons,thisraisesourrevisedtargetpriceforABLtoPkR100/share.Whilethereis
limited upside on offer at current levels, we would take any dip in share price as an
opportunitytobuildposionsinthisqualitynamewhereourposiveoutlookisprem
iseduponaforecasteddoubledigitNPATCAGRalongsideastrongbalancesheet(95%
provisioning coverage, CAR: 17%+). A sizeable capital gains backlog of more than
PkR9.9bn(18%ofTierIequity)onlistedequityinstrumentsalsopointstowardspotenal +ve earnings surprises going forward. Having gained 17.3%CYTD, ABL trades at a
CY14F P/B of 1.5x and P/E of 9.1x where our revised target price implies a Neutral
stance.
PakistanMarket:NormalServiceResumes,(AKDDaily,Apr01,2014)
The previous month was an evenul onewhere theKSE100 Index rode the wave of
improvingmacros,underpinnedbyrapidPkRappreciaon,togain5.3%aeradisap
poinngdeclineof3.7%inFeb'14.ThisbringsCYTDgainsto7.5%,allthemoreimpres
sive considering the month under review saw net oulow of US$5.2mn from foreign
investorsforthefirst mesinceSep'13.Thisnetsellmayhavebeenpromptedbythe
6.5%MoMcurrencygainswhichtookUS$basedreturnsfortheKSE100Indexto11.9%
inMar'14.
Other
than
currency
apprecia
on,
led
by
receipt
of
a
US$750mn
grant
from
SaudiArabiaamidstaposiveoutlookforfurtherinflows,keydriversincludedacease
fire with militants and the resultant improvement in general law & order condions.
28,281
28,306
28,331
28,356
28,381
28,406
28,431
28,456
28,481
9:08
9:53
10:37
11:21
12:05
12:48
13:31
14:14
14:58
15:42
16:27
Source:KSE&AKDResearch
Mar 31, 2014
27,922
27,961
28,000
28,039
28,078
28,117
28,156
28,19528,234
28,273
28,312
28,351
28,390
9:25
10:17
11:08
12:00
12:52
13:43
14:35
15:27
27,556
27,591
27,626
27,661
27,696
27,73127,766
27,801
27,836
27,871
27,906
27,941
9:25
10:05
10:44
11:22
12:01
12:40
13:18
13:57
14:35
15:14
Apr 01, 2014
27,053
27,091
27,129
27,167
27,205
27,243
9:24
10:15
11:06
11:57
12:48
13:39
14:30
15:22
27,15027,18127,21227,24327,27427,305
27,33627,36727,39827,42927,46027,49127,52227,55327,584
9:26
10:11
10:56
11:41
12:26
13:11
13:56
14:42
15:28
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StockSmart
Pakistan Weekly Update
This Weeks Daily Reports
3
TheKSE100nowtradesataforwardP/Eof8.3xwherefurtherrerangisapossibility
providedmacrosconnueto improveand law&orderremainsstable.Atcurrent levels,welikeBAFL,NBP,NML,DGKCandOGDC.
PakistanEconomy:RemainsonTrack,(AKDDaily,March31,2014)
TherecentlyreleasedIMFReviewandtheSBPsStateoftheEconomyReportbothap
pear cauously opmisc regarding the recent upck in Pakistans macros and pro
spectsfor improvementgoingforward.Inthisregard,factorssuchasGDPgrowth, in
flaon and the external posion have posted posive surprises which appear to be
feedingintoimprovedbusinesssenment.Thelaerhasbeenpinpointedasoneofthe
reasonsleadingtotherecentshi infavorofPIBs(PkR500bnraised in lastauconvs.
target of PkR60bn) alongside expectaons that interest rates have peaked for now.
DespitetheIMFreportedlystressingtheneedtomaintaina ghtmonetarypolicy,we
reiteratethat
central
bank
will
have
room
to
cut
interest
rates
in
the
May14
MPS
par
cularly iftheFXreservesposionkeepsstrengthening.Thatsaid,webelievethere
cent runup in banks share prices has largely captured the posives although value
maysllbefoundinnamessuchasBAFL,NBPandFABL.
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StockSmart
Pakistan Weekly Update
4
Commodities
International Major Currencies
Source: Bloomberg
Source: Bloomberg
Major World Indices Performance
Source: Bloomberg
TRJ-CRB Index
Source: Bloomberg
PkR/US$ Trend
Source: Bloomberg
Regional Valuatio ns (2014)
Source: Bloomberg & AKD Universe
250
260
270
280
290
300
310
320
Feb-1
3
Mar-1
3
Apr-1
3
May-1
3
Jun-1
3
Jul-1
3
Aug-1
3
Sep-1
3
Oct-1
3
Nov-1
3
Dec-1
3
Jan-1
4
Feb-1
4
Mar-1
4
97.0
99.0
101.0
103.0
105.0
107.0
109.0
Feb-13
Apr-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Sep-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Feb-14
SPOT Units 4Apr14 28Mar14 WoW CYTD
TRJCRB Points 303.87 305.21 0.44% 8.46%
Nymex(WTI) US$/bbl. 101.17 101.67 0.49% 2.79%
ICEBrent US$/bbl. 105.84 107.27 1.33% 4.49%
N.Gas HenryHub US$/Mmbtu 4.4829 4.4826 0.01% 3.20%
Cotton USd/Pound 95.3 97.3 2.06% 6.24%
Gold US$/Tr.Oz 1292.75 1295.27 0.19% 7.22%
Sliver US$/Tr.Oz 19.937 19.83 0.54% 2.41%
Copper
US$/MT 6643.25 6685.5
0.63%
9.93%Platinum US$/Oz 1442.8 1411.13 2.24% 5.36%
Coal US$/MT 73.05 73.05 0.00% 13.65%
SPOT 4Apr14 28Mar14 Chg+/ WoW CYTD
DollarIndex 80.516 80.176 0.340 0.42% 0.60%
USD/PkR 98.195 98.084 0.111 0.11% 6.77%
USD/JPY 103.910 102.830 1.080 1.05% 1.33%
EUR/USD 1.370 1.375 0.006 0.40% 0.33%
GBP/USD 1.656 1.664 0.008 0.47% 0.01%
AUD/USD 0.925 0.925 0.000 0.04% 3.75%
NZD/USD 0.854 0.866 0.012 1.35% 4.02%
CHF/USD 0.893 0.887 0.006 0.72% 0.03%
CAD/USD 1.102 1.106 0.004 0.34% 3.77%
USD/KRW 1,054 1,069 15.500 1.45% 0.37%
CNY/USD 6.212 6.213 0.000 0.00% 2.61%
Country BloombergCode 4Apr14 28Mar14 WoW CYTD
Pakistan KSE100Index 28,408 27,116 4.76% 12.46%
Srilanka CSEALL
Index 6,055
5,972
1.38% 2.40%Thailand SETIndex 1,392 1,369 1.69% 7.18%
Jakarta JCI Index 4,858 4,768 1.88% 13.66%
Malaysia FBMKLCI Index 1,857 1,851 0.32% 0.55%
Philippines PCOMPIndex 6,561 6,360 3.17% 11.40%
Vietnam VNINDEXIndex 593 594 0.21% 17.52%
HongKong HSIIndex 22,510 22,066 2.01% 3.42%
Singapore FSSTIIndex 3,213 3,172 1.28% 1.43%
Brazil IBXIndex 21,254 20,603 3.16% 0.19%
Russia RTSSTDIndex 9,317 9,085 2.55% 8.45%
India SENSEXIndex 22,360 22,340 0.09% 5.62%
China SHCOMPIndex 2,059 2,042 0.84% 2.70%
S&P SPXIndex 1,889 1,858 1.68% 2.19%
DJIA INDUIndex 16,573 16,323 1.53% 0.02%
NASDAQComposite CCMPIndex 4,238 4,156 1.97% 1.46%
UK UKXIndex 6,680 6,616 0.97% 1.03%
German DAXIndex 9,671 9,587 0.88% 1.25%
Qatar DSMIndex 11,984 11,482 4.37% 15.46%
AbuDhabi ADSMIIndex 4,923 4,855 1.41% 14.76%
Dubai DFMGIIndex 4,618 4,381 5.42% 37.05%
Kuwait KWSEIDXIndex 7,572 7,585 0.16% 0.30%
Oman MSM30Index 6,776 6,922 2.11% 0.86%
SaudiArabia SASEIDXIndex 9,558 9,423 1.44% 11.98%
MSCIEM MXEFIndex 1,000 985 1.55% 0.25%
MSCIFM MXFMIndex 640 626 2.29% 7.64%
EPSGrowth PE(x)
Pakistan 25% 8.69
Indonesia 13% 11.75
Malaysia 18% 13.00
Philippines 10% 14.98
Vitenam 15% 15.79
India 16% 12.26
China 15% 6.95
% ROE DivdYld
Pakistan 21.50 5.56
Indones ia 18.59 2.26
Malaysia 13.47 3.37
P hi li ppi ne s 1 4.8 7 2.38
Vitenam 17.77 n.a
India 16.47 1.99
China 14.30 4.06
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4 April 2014
StockSmart
Pakistan Weekly Update
Chart Bank
FIPI Flows for the week
7,588
5,607
8,068
9,182
5,343
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
31Mar 1Apr 2Apr 3Apr 4Apr
(US$'000)
Advance to Decline Ratio
0.80
0.90
1.00
1.10
1.20
1.30
1.40
1.50
1.60
Apr13
Jun
13
Aug
13
Nov
13
Jan
14
Apr14
AKD Universe vs. KSE-100 Index
5%
1%
7%
13%
19%
25%
31%
37%
43%
49%55%
A
pr13
Jun
13
A
ug
13
N
ov
13
Jan
14
A
pr14
KSEAllShareIndex AKDUniverse
LIPI Flows for the week
Ind.,0.10
Co., (6.33)Bank/DFI,
(5.78)
NBFC,4.70
M.Funds,
(11.11) Others,
(3.09)
(25.00)
(20.00)
(15.00)
(10.00)
(5.00)
(US$mn)
Earnings Yield vs. T-Bill (12M) Differential
(4.0)
(2.0)
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
Jul08
Jan09
Aug09
Mar10
Oct10
May11
Dec11
Jul12
Feb
13
Sep13
Apr14
(%)
KSE-100 vs. MSCI-EM & MSCI-FM
15%
5%
5%
15%
25%
35%
45%
55%
65%
75%
Ja
n13
Fe
b13
Apr13
Ju
n13
Aug
13
Oct13
Dec
13
Ja
n14
Mar14
KSE100MSCIEM
MSCIFM
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AKD Securities Limited StockSmart
Pakistan Weekly Update
AKD Universe Valuations
Market PER Chart 2014F
Source: AKD Research
Market P/BVS Chart 2014F
Source: AKD Research
Source: AKD Research
4 April 2014
Jul-05
Oct
-06
Jan-
08
Apr-
09
Jul-10
Oct
-11
Jan-
13
Apr-
14
15
11
8
4
(x)
Jul
05
Oct
06
Jan
08
Apr09
Jul
10
Oct
11
Jan
13
Apr14
(x)
3.5
2.6
1.7
0.8
4Apr14 2011A 2012A 2013A/E 2014F 2015F
EPS(PkR) 8.04 8.74 9.55 11.93 13.67
EPSchg(%) 24.30 8.65 9.29 24.92 14.60
EPSchg(%)ExFinancials 25.15 8.76 16.62 28.70 15.41
BookValueperShare(PkR) 37.64 43.11 49.47 55.50 61.92
Payout(%) 52.26 50.30 50.11 48.32 48.52
Valuations
PricetoEarnings (x) 12.89 11.87 10.86 8.69 7.58
PricetoBook(x) 2.76 2.41 2.10 1.87 1.68
PER(x)ExFinancials 13.64 12.54 10.75 8.35 7.24
P/BVS(x)ExFinancials 3.29 2.90 2.46 2.14 1.90
PricetoCF(x) 21.33 26.47 8.64 20.99 11.79
Earnings Yield(%) 7.76 8.43 9.21 11.50 13.18
DividendYield(%) 4.05 4.24 4.62 5.56 6.40
EV/EBITDA(x) 8.03 7.07 6.30 5.52 4.89
Profitability
ReturnonEquity(%) 21.37 20.27 19.31 21.50 22.09
ReturnonAssets (%) 3.85 3.58 3.76 4.16 4.29
Chgin Sales(%) 17.34 17.57 5.67 12.61 10.90
GrossMargin(%) 23.41 21.77 22.87 22.48 23.03
OperatingMargin(%) 14.47 12.85 13.46 13.50 14.35
NetMargin(%) 11.38 10.52 10.88 12.07 12.47
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AKD Securities Limited StockSmart
Pakistan Weekly Update
AKD Universe Active Coverage Clusters Valuations
4 April 2014
Source: AKD Research
Stocks Symbol Price TP StanceEPS
(PkR)PE(x) PB(x) DY(%)
(PkR) (PkR) 12A 13A/E 14F 12A 13A/E 14F 12A13A/E 14F 12A13A/E 14F
AutomobileandParts
IndusMotors INDU 447.8 384.29 Reduce 54.7 42.7 49.1 8.2 10.5 9.1 2.1 2.0 1.8 7.1 5.6 5.6
PakSuzukiMotors PSMC 202.0 194.99 Neutral 11.9 22.5 23.0 17.0 9.0 8.8 1.1 1.0 0.9 1.2 2.0 2.5
ConstruconandMaterials
DGKhanCement DGKC 92.5 106.95 Accumulate 9.4 12.6 12.9 9.9 7.4 7.1 1.2 0.8 0.8 1.6 3.2 3.5
Chemicals
EngroPolymerChemicals EPCL 15.7 16.49 Accumulate 0.1 1.1 1.1 134.8 14.7 13.6 1.6 1.5 1.3
ICIPakistanLimited ICI 382.6 310.52 Reduce 10.5 7.4 22.2 36.3 51.4 17.2 3.6 3.3 2.8 1.4 0.5 1.8
LoeChemicalPakistanLtd. LOTCHEM 7.9 8.53 Accumulate 0.0 (0.3) 0.6 n.m n.m 13.4 1.0 1.0 0.9 3.2
EngroCorporaon ENGRO 192.6 196.20 Neutral 2.6 18.7 22.9 73.9 10.3 8.4 2.3 1.3 1.2
EngroFerlizersLimited EFERT 49.1 55.45 Accumulate (2.3) 4.2 5.6 (21.7) 11.6 8.7 4.0 2.9 2.2
DawoodHerculesLimited DAWH 90.3 71.83 Sell 2.0 9.2 13.1 44.3 9.8 6.9 2.2 n.a n.a 1.1
FaujiFert.BinQasimLtd. FFBL 43.5 49.33 Accumulate 4.6 6.0 6.6 9.4 7.2 6.6 3.2 2.6 2.6 10.3 12.6 14.4FaujiFerlizerCompany FFC 113.5 138.62 Buy 16.4 15.8 16.4 6.9 7.2 6.9 6.6 6.0 5.8 13.7 14.1 14.3
FamaFerlizer FATIMA 31.4 35.09 Accumulate 2.9 4.1 5.0 10.8 7.7 6.3 2.3 2.0 1.7 6.4 6.4 6.4
FoodProducers
EngroFoodsLimited EFOODS 122.6 80.92 Sell 3.4 0.3 2.6 36.2 445.3 47.1 9.3 8.2 7.0
Oil&Gas
Oil&GasDevelopmentCo. OGDC 259.2 302.09 Accumulate 22.5 21.1 28.9 11.5 12.3 9.0 4.2 3.4 2.8 2.8 3.2 4.5
PakOilfields POL 550.4 612.57 Accumulate 50.1 45.8 59.1 11.0 12.0 9.3 3.7 3.7 3.4 9.5 8.2 8.4
PakistanStateOil PSO 418.4 345.59 Reduce 36.7 50.8 91.5 11.4 8.2 4.6 2.1 1.7 1.3 1.3 1.2 2.4
Electricity
HubPowerCo. HUBC 53.8 72.19 Buy 7.1 8.8 7.0 7.6 6.1 7.7 2.0 1.9 2.0 11.2 14.9 16.7
KotAdduPowerCompany KAPCO 59.8 64.00 Accumulate 6.9 8.4 8.0 8.7 7.2 7.5 2.2 2.2 2.1 11.5 12.5 13.0
FixedLineTelecommunicaon
PakistanTelecommunicaon PTC 31.9 29.71 Reduce 2.2 3.1 4.2 14.2 10.3 7.6 1.4 1.3 1.3 7.1 9.4PersonalGoods
NishatMills NML 122.7 137.54 Accumulate 10.0 16.6 18.7 12.2 7.4 6.6 1.1 0.7 0.7 2.9 3.3 3.9
Banks
AlliedBankLimited ABL 96.0 100.03 Neutral 11.4 14.2 11.7 8.4 6.8 8.2 1.9 1.5 1.4 6.2 5.7 5.7
BankAlFalah BAFL 27.9 32.0* Accumulate 3.4 3.5 3.8 8.3 8.0 7.3 1.3 1.2 1.1 7.2 7.2 5.4
HabibBankLimited HBL 176.7 149.99 Reduce 17.0 17.1 19.1 10.4 10.3 9.2 1.8 1.7 1.5 3.9 4.5 5.1
MCBBankLimited MCB 268.7 245.48 Reduce 18.8 19.7 20.9 14.3 13.7 12.8 2.8 2.6 2.3 4.0 4.7 4.9
NaonalBankofPakistan NBP 57.1 59.99 Accumulate 7.3 2.5 7.4 7.8 23.0 7.7 0.8 0.8 0.7 10.7 3.5 9.6
UnitedBankLtd UBL 165.0 150.03 Reduce 15.6 15.8 16.5 10.5 10.5 10.0 2.0 1.8 1.7 5.2 5.2 5.5
*TPforBAFLrisestoPkR33.8/shareuponsuccessfulWaridstakesale
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AKD Universe Coverage Clusters Performance
Source: KSE & AKD Research
Stocks Sym bol Pr ice 1 Year 1 Year
1-Apr -14 1M 3M 6M 12M CYTD High Low
KSE-100 Index 27565.50 6.9 7.6 25.4 50.9 9.1 27104.70 17492.00
Industrial Engineering
Al-Ghazi Tractor AGTL 206.64 -24.7 -2.5 1.9 -2.5 -2.7 273.49 197.00
Millat Tractors MTL 466.00 -3.9 -3.6 -1.4 0.0 -3.4 519.58 433.73
Au to m ob ile and Par ts
Indus Motors INDU 396.00 10.9 20.0 21.1 26.6 18.9 398.10 282.00
Pak Suzuki Motors PSMC 203.90 28.2 31.2 51.3 100.1 32.5 167.70 97.29
Constru ction and Materials
DG Khan Cement DGKC 93.12 6.9 3.7 30.7 30.9 8.6 96.43 61.23
Lucky Cement LUCK 332.79 2.2 7.1 42.3 97.3 11.0 321.67 160.97
Chemicals
Engro Polymer Chemicals EPCL 15.59 3.9 8.2 15.9 49.3 16.3 16.66 9.29
ICI Pakistan Limited ICI 375.18 25.3 48.0 109.0 166.1 48.3 326.31 135.37
Lotte Pakistan PTA Limited LOTCHEM 8.03 22.2 7.8 18.6 8.4 9.4 8.89 6.46
Daw ood Hercules DAWH 89.95 8.2 59.0 76.3 70.2 60.3 85.56 37.88
Engro Fertilizers Ltd. EFERT 60.84 2.0 n.a n.a n.a n.a 56.85 29.66
Engro Chemical ENGRO 188.37 -0.2 18.0 37.4 40.2 18.9 187.38 103.25
Fatima Fertilizer FATIMA 31.72 10.8 11.5 23.9 40.7 11.1 30.16 21.29
Fauji Fert. Bin Qasim Ltd. FFBL 43.48 -0.7 -2.2 14.5 13.7 -0.8 45.42 36.90
Fauji Fertilizer Company FFC 112.36 3.3 -1.9 10.3 0.1 0.4 119.52 101.37
Food Produ cers
Engro Foods Limited EFOODS 122.41 26.8 17.3 20.1 -4.5 17.2 162.22 80.37
Non Life Ins ur ance
Adamjee Insurance AICL 47.07 13.1 22.4 80.3 89.4 26.0 74.12 23.57
Oil & Gas
Oil & Gas Development Co. OGDC 246.59 -6.0 -11.8 3.3 20.6 -10.8 287.84 197.32
Pak Oilf ields POL 546.56 9.5 7.7 25.5 19.3 9.8 539.63 428.73
Pakistan State Oil PSO 441.75 22.5 32.0 60.7 115.9 33.0 367.10 184.67
Electricity
Hub Pow er Co. HUBC 53.06 -2.9 -13.9 -18.6 3.1 -12.6 73.42 50.13
Kot Addu Pow er Company KAPCO 59.05 2.2 -4.2 -8.0 11.2 -4.4 68.34 49.53
Fixed Line Telecomm unication
Pakistan Telecommunication PTC 30.90 5.6 7.0 15.3 51.2 8.6 31.70 17.46
Personal Goods
Nisaht (Chunian) Ltd. NCL 47.62 -10.6 -24.6 -16.0 -2.2 -20.9 68.82 43.31
Nishat Mills NML 118.44 -10.3 -11.3 27.4 40.3 -6.9 140.79 69.03
Banks
Allied Bank Limited ABL 95.98 19.3 17.3 34.3 77.2 17.3 94.51 55.01
Askari Bank Limited AKBL 17.12 25.4 22.4 33.1 7.1 22.3 16.15 10.76
Bank AlFalah BAFL 27.20 -2.3 -0.4 30.7 79.3 0.6 28.66 14.77
Habib Bank Limited HBL 175.55 19.0 17.4 27.2 98.9 15.9 181.57 88.00
Habib Metropolitan Bank HMB 26.70 9.9 4.7 20.6 71.4 6.5 26.16 14.61
MCB Bank Limited MCB 258.42 5.7 -0.4 12.0 49.9 1.1 316.87 183.00
Meezan Bank Limited MEBL 39.50 4.0 1.8 4.5 50.0 0.3 40.87 24.11
National Bank of Pakistan NBP 54.50 -3.8 -6.2 9.9 38.5 -6.1 60.01 37.66
United Bank Ltd UBL 164.00 23.0 23.3 27.4 97.0 23.7 154.21 82.16
Absolut e Per fo rm ance (%)
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Economic Snapshot
Source: SBP, PBS & AKD Research
End Month Data Units Jun -13 Jul -13 Aug -13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14
T-bill
3M % 9.26 8.93 9.00 9.15 9.47 9.63 9.93 9.92 9.91
6M % 9.16 9.01 9.20 9.35 9.68 9.88 10.02 9.98 9.95
12M % 9.21 9.00 9.28 9.41 9.76 9.91 10.05 9.99 9.99
PIB 10Y % 10.86 11.57 11.97 12.28 12.83 12.93 12.90 12.59 12.80
KIBOR 6M % 9.39 9.08 9.15 9.29 9.55 9.52 10.13 10.14 10.15
Discount rate % 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.50 9.50 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00
Inflation
Headline inflation % 5.90 8.26 8.55 7.40 9.10 10.90 9.18 7.90 7.90
Core inflation % 7.80 8.20 8.50 8.70 8.40 8.50 8.20 8.00 7.80
Food inflation % 7.90 9.20 10.30 7.90 9.80 13.00 9.30 7.20 7.60
External Indicators
Export (PBS) US$ (mn) 2,197 2,095 1,996 2,622 1,864 1,804 2,275 2,061 2,167
Import (PBS) US$ (mn) 3,940 3,814 3,572 3,791 3,281 3,651 3,561 4,137 3,600
Trade Deficit (PBS) US$ (mn) (1,743) (1,719) (1,576) (1,169) (1,417) (1,847) (1,286) (2,076) (1,433)
Home Remittances US$ (mn) 1,165 1,404 1,233 1,283 1,348 1,131 1,385 1,246 1,210
Current Account US$ (mn) (163) 46 (575) (574) (166) (572) 285 (464) 164
Banking Sector
Deposits PkR (bn) 7,316 7,069 7,174 7,125 7,133 7,309 7,529 7,566 7,599
Advances PkR (bn) 3,869 3,788 3,817 3,831 3,921 4,008 4,071 4,127 4,110
Investments PkR (bn) 4,129 3,837 3,708 3,873 3,776 4,035 4,070 4,217 4,443
W. Avg. lending rate % 11.36 11.28 11.11 11.10 11.10 11.13 11.07 n.a n.a
W. Avg. deposit rate % 5.01 4.97 4.83 4.79 4.90 4.89 5.05 n.a n.a
Spread rate % 6.35 6.31 6.28 6.31 6.20 6.24 6.02 n.a n.a
Public Finance
Tax collection PkR (mn) 267,608 124,257 147,221 203,596 153,329 n.a n.a n.a n.a
Direct taxes PkR (mn) 128,889 30,745 44,574 86,436 50,466 n.a n.a n.a n.a
Indirect Taxes PkR (mn) 138,719 93,512 102,647 117,160 102,863 n.a n.a n.a n.a
Currency
Reserves (RHS) US$ (mn) 11,020 10,287 9,998 9,995 9,525 8,247 8,314 7,988 8,744
USDPkR - Interbank PkR/USD 98.94 101.90 104.51 105.24 106.89 107.64 106.93 105.49 105.12
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Analyst CertificationWe, theAKD Research Team, hereby individually & jointly certify that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our person-al views about the subject securities and issuers. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is,or will be, directly or indirectly, relatedto the specific recommendations or views expressed in this research report. We further certify that we do not have any beneficial holding of thespecific securities that we have recommendations on in this report.
AKD Research Team
Analyst Tel no. E-mail Coverage
Naveed Vakil +92 111 253 111 (692) [email protected] Director - Research & Business Development
Raza Jafri, CFA +92 111 253 111 (693) [email protected] Pakistan Economy & Commercial Banks
Anum Dhedhi +92 111 253 111 (637) [email protected] Pakistan Economy
Bilal Alvi +92 111 253 111 (647) [email protected] Textiles, Cements & Chemical
Qasim Anwar +92 111 253 111 (680) [email protected] Technical Analysis
Hassan Quadri +92 111 253 111 (639) [email protected] Research Production / Autos
Azher Ali Quli +92 111 253 111 (646) [email protected] Research Production
Nasir Khan +92 111 253 111 (646) [email protected] Research Production
Tariq Mehmood +92 111 253 111 (643) [email protected] Library Operations
4 April 2014