stock smart weekly (apr 04, 2014)

8/12/2019 Stock Smart Weekly (Apr 04, 2014)

1/10

AKD [email protected]

009221 111 253 111

Weekly Review

The KSE-100 index gained 4.76%WoW to close at its all-time high level of 28,408 points. The

key reasons behind the markets rebound was foreign buying interest on the back of the up-

coming re-composition of MSCI FM 100 Index where Pakistan's weight is more than likely to

go up to 8.9% with inclusion of 3 more stocks (PSO, LUCK and BAHL), taking total stocks

from Pakistan to twelve. In this regard FIPI clocked in at US$35.8mn for the week, up nearly

42.0xWoW and average traded volumes increased by 89%WoW to 291mn shares while aver-

age traded value rose by 30%WoW to US$139mn. Major news flow during the week included

1) Continuation of peace talks with TTP; 2) LUCKs grinding facility in Iraq has reportedly com-

menced production and 3) SAS a fully held subsidiary of Lafarge SA is evaluating a potential

divestment of its shares in LPCL. On the economic front included 1) Mar14 CPI was recorded

at 8.53%YoY leading to 9MFY14 CPI average of 8.6%YoY, 2) latest T-bill auction where an

amount of PkR26bn was raised vs. the pre-auction target of PkR125bn (we believe subdued

interest in T-bills is due to ongoing shift from shorter to longer maturities), and 3) With materi-

alization of foreign flows, fx reserves reportedly crossed US$10bn watermark on Mar 3114.

Major Gainers during the week included INDU (+12.8%WoW), LUCK (+12.5%WoW), HCAR

(+11.7%WoW) and SHEL (+10.8%WoW) while major losers included AGTL (-3.5%WoW),

AKBL (-1.4%WoW), ABL (-1.1%WoW) and PSO (-0.9%WoW). Top five volume leaders dur-

ing the week included LPCL (174mn shares), SMBL (107.5mn shares), BOP (91mn shares),

LOTCHEM (88mn shares) and NIB (76mn shares).

St ockSmar tAKD Equity Research / Pakistan

Pakistan Weekly Update

Important disclosures including investment banking relationships and analyst certification at end of this report. AKD Securities does and seeks to do business with companiescovered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of the report. Investorsshould consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.

Important disclosures

Copyright2014 AKD Securities Limited. All rights reserved. The information provided on this document is not intendedfor distribution to, or use by, any person or entity in any jurisdiction or country where such distribution or use would becontrary to law or regulation or which would subject AKD Securities or its affiliates to any registration requirement withinsuch jurisdiction or country. Neither the information, nor any opinion contained in this document constitutes a solicitationor offer by AKD Securities or its affiliates to buy or sell any securities or provide any investment advice or service. AKDSecurities does not warrant the accuracy of the information provided herein.

www.akdsecurities.net

AKD SECURITIESMember: Karachi Stock Exchange

Find AKD research on Bloomberg(AKDS), firstcall.com

and Reuters Knowledge

With KSE-100 Index gaining 1,292 points in the outgoing week, we believe investors should

wait for the market to take a dip before taking fresh positions. Saying that, we feel market

movement in the coming week will primarily be dictated by foreign flows. Spotlight is also likely

to be on the dialogue between the govt and Taliban. In our view, attention should be given to

stocks which are yet to ride the ongoing rally, these include NBP, BAFL, NML and OGDC.

Outlook

4 April 2014

Top-5 Volume Leaders

Sym bol Volum e (m n)

LPCL : 174.43

SMBL : 107.50

BOP : 91.16

LOTCHEM : 88.84

NIB : 76.58

Indices KSE-100 KSE-30

This week 28,408.03 20,030.28

Last week 27,116.13 19,200.54

Change 4.76% 4.32%

Indices KMI-30 Allshare

This week 46,569.72 21,223.18

Last week 44,488.95 20,379.22

Change 4.68% 4.14%

Mkt Cap. PkRbn US$bn

This week 6,840.77 69.70

Last week 6,573.10 67.05

Change 4.07% 3.96%

Avg. Daily Turnover ('mn shares)

This week 291.80

Last week 154.00

Change 89.48%

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Apr

-13

May

-13

May

-13

Jun

-13

Ju

l-13

Aug

-13

Sep

-13

Oc

t-

13

Nov

-13

Dec

-13

Jan

-14

Fe

b-

14

Mar

-14

Apr

-14

(mn)

(Index)

18,000

19,500

21,000

22,500

24,000

25,50027,000

28,500

30,000

Volume (LHS) KSE-100 Index

Index & Volume Chart

Source: KSE & AKD Research

Universe Gainers & Losers

5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

INDU

LUCK

HCAR

SHEL

ICI

FATIMA

PSO

ABL

AKBL

AGTL

27,160

27,566

27,932

28,336 28,408

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

500,000

31

Mar

1Apr

2Apr

3Apr

4Apr

(Shrs'000)

26,400

26,600

26,800

27,000

27,200

27,400

27,600

27,800

28,000

28,200

28,400

28,600

(Index)

Read Volume LHS KSE100Index RHS


2/10

AKD Securities Limited

4 April 2014

StockSmart


This Weeks Daily Reports

2

Apr 04, 2014

Apr 03, 2014

Apr 02, 2014

Banks:Thelongandshortofit,(AKDDaily,Apr04,2014)

TheBankingsector(+13%CYTD)hasbeeninthelimelightoverthelastfewweeks,with

inial rally in larger banks now being tracked by smaller names where the combined

marketcapofbankswithlessthanPkR100bnindepositsroseby11%yesterday.Other

thananycasespecificM&Aspeculaon,weaributethiscatchuprallytogeneralre

rang in Banks on the back of ongoing macro improvement with the recent shi to

higheryielding PIBs (at the expense of Tbills) acng as the trigger. Within this back

drop,thereareseveralbanksthathaveyettoperformatparwiththeirpeersandalso

appeararacveon valuaon mulples (P/B, Mkt Cap/Deposits).These include BAFL

(TP:PkR32/share),NBP(TP:PkR60/share),FABL,BOKand JSBL,whichwebelievecan

potenallyoutperforminthenearterm.Fromabroadervantage,providedthebanking

sector gradually rerates to 200307 levels (when GDP growth averaged 5%+pa), the

bankingsectorcanpotenallydeliverreturnsof18%paacross20142017,whichmakes

evenUBLandHBLappearasprofitablemediumtermbets.

PakistanMarket:ClearwinnerinthenewMSCIFM100!,(AKDDaily,Apr03,2014)

AsperaMSCIpressrelease,theproposalsforthenewcalculaonmethodologyforthe

MSCIFM100Indexhavebeenapproved,includingapplyingacapof40%tothecumu

laveweightsofthetwolargestcountriesinthebasket(Kuwait+Nigeria)andapplying

ahigherfreefloatadjustedmarketcaprequirementtoIndexconstuents(US$240mn).

As a result, we understand that Pakistans weight in the FM basket may increase to

about8.9%fromcloseto4.3%atpresent.Atthesame me,theMSCIsimulaonindi

cates that 12 Pakistani companies may be represented in the FM basket, with LUCK,

PSOandBAHLappearingtobenewentrants.WithPakistansettoemergeasthe3rd

largest FM market (broadly at par with Argenna) amidst an ongoing macro turna

round,weexpectPakistantoincreasinglyregisteronforeigninvestorsradars,vindicatedbythecumulavenetFPIinflowofUS$21.3mninthelast3tradingsessions.Atcur

rentlevels,nameswelikeincludeBAFL,NBP,NML,DGKCandOGDC.

ABL:TPRevision,(AKDDaily,Apr02,2014)

WerevisitourearningscaseforABLpostCY13resultsandraiseourearningsesmates

by5%onaverageacrosstheinvestmenthorizon.Togetherwithslightlyhigherpayout

projecons,thisraisesourrevisedtargetpriceforABLtoPkR100/share.Whilethereis

limited upside on offer at current levels, we would take any dip in share price as an

opportunitytobuildposionsinthisqualitynamewhereourposiveoutlookisprem

iseduponaforecasteddoubledigitNPATCAGRalongsideastrongbalancesheet(95%

provisioning coverage, CAR: 17%+). A sizeable capital gains backlog of more than

PkR9.9bn(18%ofTierIequity)onlistedequityinstrumentsalsopointstowardspotenal +ve earnings surprises going forward. Having gained 17.3%CYTD, ABL trades at a

CY14F P/B of 1.5x and P/E of 9.1x where our revised target price implies a Neutral

stance.

PakistanMarket:NormalServiceResumes,(AKDDaily,Apr01,2014)

The previous month was an evenul onewhere theKSE100 Index rode the wave of

improvingmacros,underpinnedbyrapidPkRappreciaon,togain5.3%aeradisap

poinngdeclineof3.7%inFeb'14.ThisbringsCYTDgainsto7.5%,allthemoreimpres

sive considering the month under review saw net oulow of US$5.2mn from foreign

investorsforthefirst mesinceSep'13.Thisnetsellmayhavebeenpromptedbythe

6.5%MoMcurrencygainswhichtookUS$basedreturnsfortheKSE100Indexto11.9%

inMar'14.

Other

than

currency

apprecia

on,

led

by

receipt

of

a

US$750mn

grant

from

SaudiArabiaamidstaposiveoutlookforfurtherinflows,keydriversincludedacease

fire with militants and the resultant improvement in general law & order condions.

28,281

28,306

28,331

28,356

28,381

28,406

28,431

28,456

28,481

9:08

9:53

10:37

11:21

12:05

12:48

13:31

14:14

14:58

15:42

16:27

Source:KSE&AKDResearch

Mar 31, 2014

27,922

27,961

28,000

28,039

28,078

28,117

28,156

28,19528,234

28,273

28,312

28,351

28,390

9:25

10:17

11:08

12:00

12:52

13:43

14:35

15:27

27,556

27,591

27,626

27,661

27,696

27,73127,766

27,801

27,836

27,871

27,906

27,941

9:25

10:05

10:44

11:22

12:01

12:40

13:18

13:57

14:35

15:14

Apr 01, 2014

27,053

27,091

27,129

27,167

27,205

27,243

9:24

10:15

11:06

11:57

12:48

13:39

14:30

15:22

27,15027,18127,21227,24327,27427,305

27,33627,36727,39827,42927,46027,49127,52227,55327,584

9:26

10:11

10:56

11:41

12:26

13:11

13:56

14:42

15:28


3/10


4 April 2014

StockSmart


This Weeks Daily Reports

3

TheKSE100nowtradesataforwardP/Eof8.3xwherefurtherrerangisapossibility

providedmacrosconnueto improveand law&orderremainsstable.Atcurrent levels,welikeBAFL,NBP,NML,DGKCandOGDC.

PakistanEconomy:RemainsonTrack,(AKDDaily,March31,2014)

TherecentlyreleasedIMFReviewandtheSBPsStateoftheEconomyReportbothap

pear cauously opmisc regarding the recent upck in Pakistans macros and pro

spectsfor improvementgoingforward.Inthisregard,factorssuchasGDPgrowth, in

flaon and the external posion have posted posive surprises which appear to be

feedingintoimprovedbusinesssenment.Thelaerhasbeenpinpointedasoneofthe

reasonsleadingtotherecentshi infavorofPIBs(PkR500bnraised in lastauconvs.

target of PkR60bn) alongside expectaons that interest rates have peaked for now.

DespitetheIMFreportedlystressingtheneedtomaintaina ghtmonetarypolicy,we

reiteratethat

central

bank

will

have

room

to

cut

interest

rates

in

the

May14

MPS

par

cularly iftheFXreservesposionkeepsstrengthening.Thatsaid,webelievethere

cent runup in banks share prices has largely captured the posives although value

maysllbefoundinnamessuchasBAFL,NBPandFABL.


4/10


4 April 2014

StockSmart


4

Commodities

International Major Currencies

Source: Bloomberg

Source: Bloomberg

Major World Indices Performance

Source: Bloomberg

TRJ-CRB Index

Source: Bloomberg

PkR/US$ Trend

Source: Bloomberg

Regional Valuatio ns (2014)

Source: Bloomberg & AKD Universe

250

260

270

280

290

300

310

320

Feb-1

3

Mar-1

3

Apr-1

3

May-1

3

Jun-1

3

Jul-1

3

Aug-1

3

Sep-1

3

Oct-1

3

Nov-1

3

Dec-1

3

Jan-1

4

Feb-1

4

Mar-1

4

97.0

99.0

101.0

103.0

105.0

107.0

109.0

Feb-13

Apr-13

Jun-13

Jul-13

Sep-13

Nov-13

Dec-13

Feb-14

SPOT Units 4Apr14 28Mar14 WoW CYTD

TRJCRB Points 303.87 305.21 0.44% 8.46%

Nymex(WTI) US$/bbl. 101.17 101.67 0.49% 2.79%

ICEBrent US$/bbl. 105.84 107.27 1.33% 4.49%

N.Gas HenryHub US$/Mmbtu 4.4829 4.4826 0.01% 3.20%

Cotton USd/Pound 95.3 97.3 2.06% 6.24%

Gold US$/Tr.Oz 1292.75 1295.27 0.19% 7.22%

Sliver US$/Tr.Oz 19.937 19.83 0.54% 2.41%

Copper

US$/MT 6643.25 6685.5

0.63%

9.93%Platinum US$/Oz 1442.8 1411.13 2.24% 5.36%

Coal US$/MT 73.05 73.05 0.00% 13.65%

SPOT 4Apr14 28Mar14 Chg+/ WoW CYTD

DollarIndex 80.516 80.176 0.340 0.42% 0.60%

USD/PkR 98.195 98.084 0.111 0.11% 6.77%

USD/JPY 103.910 102.830 1.080 1.05% 1.33%

EUR/USD 1.370 1.375 0.006 0.40% 0.33%

GBP/USD 1.656 1.664 0.008 0.47% 0.01%

AUD/USD 0.925 0.925 0.000 0.04% 3.75%

NZD/USD 0.854 0.866 0.012 1.35% 4.02%

CHF/USD 0.893 0.887 0.006 0.72% 0.03%

CAD/USD 1.102 1.106 0.004 0.34% 3.77%

USD/KRW 1,054 1,069 15.500 1.45% 0.37%

CNY/USD 6.212 6.213 0.000 0.00% 2.61%

Country BloombergCode 4Apr14 28Mar14 WoW CYTD

Pakistan KSE100Index 28,408 27,116 4.76% 12.46%

Srilanka CSEALL

Index 6,055

5,972

1.38% 2.40%Thailand SETIndex 1,392 1,369 1.69% 7.18%

Jakarta JCI Index 4,858 4,768 1.88% 13.66%

Malaysia FBMKLCI Index 1,857 1,851 0.32% 0.55%

Philippines PCOMPIndex 6,561 6,360 3.17% 11.40%

Vietnam VNINDEXIndex 593 594 0.21% 17.52%

HongKong HSIIndex 22,510 22,066 2.01% 3.42%

Singapore FSSTIIndex 3,213 3,172 1.28% 1.43%

Brazil IBXIndex 21,254 20,603 3.16% 0.19%

Russia RTSSTDIndex 9,317 9,085 2.55% 8.45%

India SENSEXIndex 22,360 22,340 0.09% 5.62%

China SHCOMPIndex 2,059 2,042 0.84% 2.70%

S&P SPXIndex 1,889 1,858 1.68% 2.19%

DJIA INDUIndex 16,573 16,323 1.53% 0.02%

NASDAQComposite CCMPIndex 4,238 4,156 1.97% 1.46%

UK UKXIndex 6,680 6,616 0.97% 1.03%

German DAXIndex 9,671 9,587 0.88% 1.25%

Qatar DSMIndex 11,984 11,482 4.37% 15.46%

AbuDhabi ADSMIIndex 4,923 4,855 1.41% 14.76%

Dubai DFMGIIndex 4,618 4,381 5.42% 37.05%

Kuwait KWSEIDXIndex 7,572 7,585 0.16% 0.30%

Oman MSM30Index 6,776 6,922 2.11% 0.86%

SaudiArabia SASEIDXIndex 9,558 9,423 1.44% 11.98%

MSCIEM MXEFIndex 1,000 985 1.55% 0.25%

MSCIFM MXFMIndex 640 626 2.29% 7.64%

EPSGrowth PE(x)

Pakistan 25% 8.69

Indonesia 13% 11.75

Malaysia 18% 13.00

Philippines 10% 14.98

Vitenam 15% 15.79

India 16% 12.26

China 15% 6.95

% ROE DivdYld

Pakistan 21.50 5.56

Indones ia 18.59 2.26

Malaysia 13.47 3.37

P hi li ppi ne s 1 4.8 7 2.38

Vitenam 17.77 n.a

India 16.47 1.99

China 14.30 4.06


5/10

5


4 April 2014

StockSmart


Chart Bank

FIPI Flows for the week

7,588

5,607

8,068

9,182

5,343

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

31Mar 1Apr 2Apr 3Apr 4Apr

(US$'000)

Advance to Decline Ratio

0.80

0.90

1.00

1.10

1.20

1.30

1.40

1.50

1.60

Apr13

Jun

13

Aug

13

Nov

13

Jan

14

Apr14

AKD Universe vs. KSE-100 Index

5%

1%

7%

13%

19%

25%

31%

37%

43%

49%55%

A

pr13

Jun

13

A

ug

13

N

ov

13

Jan

14

A

pr14

KSEAllShareIndex AKDUniverse

LIPI Flows for the week

Ind.,0.10

Co., (6.33)Bank/DFI,

(5.78)

NBFC,4.70

M.Funds,

(11.11) Others,

(3.09)

(25.00)

(20.00)

(15.00)

(10.00)

(5.00)

(US$mn)

Earnings Yield vs. T-Bill (12M) Differential

(4.0)

(2.0)

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

Jul08

Jan09

Aug09

Mar10

Oct10

May11

Dec11

Jul12

Feb

13

Sep13

Apr14

(%)

KSE-100 vs. MSCI-EM & MSCI-FM

15%

5%

5%

15%

25%

35%

45%

55%

65%

75%

Ja

n13

Fe

b13

Apr13

Ju

n13

Aug

13

Oct13

Dec

13

Ja

n14

Mar14

KSE100MSCIEM

MSCIFM


6/10

6

AKD Securities Limited StockSmart


AKD Universe Valuations

Market PER Chart 2014F

Source: AKD Research

Market P/BVS Chart 2014F



4 April 2014

Jul-05

Oct

-06

Jan-

08

Apr-

09

Jul-10

Oct

-11

Jan-

13

Apr-

14

15

11

8

4

(x)

Jul

05

Oct

06

Jan

08

Apr09

Jul

10

Oct

11

Jan

13

Apr14

(x)

3.5

2.6

1.7

0.8

4Apr14 2011A 2012A 2013A/E 2014F 2015F

EPS(PkR) 8.04 8.74 9.55 11.93 13.67

EPSchg(%) 24.30 8.65 9.29 24.92 14.60

EPSchg(%)ExFinancials 25.15 8.76 16.62 28.70 15.41

BookValueperShare(PkR) 37.64 43.11 49.47 55.50 61.92

Payout(%) 52.26 50.30 50.11 48.32 48.52

Valuations

PricetoEarnings (x) 12.89 11.87 10.86 8.69 7.58

PricetoBook(x) 2.76 2.41 2.10 1.87 1.68

PER(x)ExFinancials 13.64 12.54 10.75 8.35 7.24

P/BVS(x)ExFinancials 3.29 2.90 2.46 2.14 1.90

PricetoCF(x) 21.33 26.47 8.64 20.99 11.79

Earnings Yield(%) 7.76 8.43 9.21 11.50 13.18

DividendYield(%) 4.05 4.24 4.62 5.56 6.40

EV/EBITDA(x) 8.03 7.07 6.30 5.52 4.89

Profitability

ReturnonEquity(%) 21.37 20.27 19.31 21.50 22.09

ReturnonAssets (%) 3.85 3.58 3.76 4.16 4.29

Chgin Sales(%) 17.34 17.57 5.67 12.61 10.90

GrossMargin(%) 23.41 21.77 22.87 22.48 23.03

OperatingMargin(%) 14.47 12.85 13.46 13.50 14.35

NetMargin(%) 11.38 10.52 10.88 12.07 12.47


7/10

7



AKD Universe Active Coverage Clusters Valuations

4 April 2014


Stocks Symbol Price TP StanceEPS

(PkR)PE(x) PB(x) DY(%)

(PkR) (PkR) 12A 13A/E 14F 12A 13A/E 14F 12A13A/E 14F 12A13A/E 14F

AutomobileandParts

IndusMotors INDU 447.8 384.29 Reduce 54.7 42.7 49.1 8.2 10.5 9.1 2.1 2.0 1.8 7.1 5.6 5.6

PakSuzukiMotors PSMC 202.0 194.99 Neutral 11.9 22.5 23.0 17.0 9.0 8.8 1.1 1.0 0.9 1.2 2.0 2.5

ConstruconandMaterials

DGKhanCement DGKC 92.5 106.95 Accumulate 9.4 12.6 12.9 9.9 7.4 7.1 1.2 0.8 0.8 1.6 3.2 3.5

Chemicals

EngroPolymerChemicals EPCL 15.7 16.49 Accumulate 0.1 1.1 1.1 134.8 14.7 13.6 1.6 1.5 1.3

ICIPakistanLimited ICI 382.6 310.52 Reduce 10.5 7.4 22.2 36.3 51.4 17.2 3.6 3.3 2.8 1.4 0.5 1.8

LoeChemicalPakistanLtd. LOTCHEM 7.9 8.53 Accumulate 0.0 (0.3) 0.6 n.m n.m 13.4 1.0 1.0 0.9 3.2

EngroCorporaon ENGRO 192.6 196.20 Neutral 2.6 18.7 22.9 73.9 10.3 8.4 2.3 1.3 1.2

EngroFerlizersLimited EFERT 49.1 55.45 Accumulate (2.3) 4.2 5.6 (21.7) 11.6 8.7 4.0 2.9 2.2

DawoodHerculesLimited DAWH 90.3 71.83 Sell 2.0 9.2 13.1 44.3 9.8 6.9 2.2 n.a n.a 1.1

FaujiFert.BinQasimLtd. FFBL 43.5 49.33 Accumulate 4.6 6.0 6.6 9.4 7.2 6.6 3.2 2.6 2.6 10.3 12.6 14.4FaujiFerlizerCompany FFC 113.5 138.62 Buy 16.4 15.8 16.4 6.9 7.2 6.9 6.6 6.0 5.8 13.7 14.1 14.3

FamaFerlizer FATIMA 31.4 35.09 Accumulate 2.9 4.1 5.0 10.8 7.7 6.3 2.3 2.0 1.7 6.4 6.4 6.4

FoodProducers

EngroFoodsLimited EFOODS 122.6 80.92 Sell 3.4 0.3 2.6 36.2 445.3 47.1 9.3 8.2 7.0

Oil&Gas

Oil&GasDevelopmentCo. OGDC 259.2 302.09 Accumulate 22.5 21.1 28.9 11.5 12.3 9.0 4.2 3.4 2.8 2.8 3.2 4.5

PakOilfields POL 550.4 612.57 Accumulate 50.1 45.8 59.1 11.0 12.0 9.3 3.7 3.7 3.4 9.5 8.2 8.4

PakistanStateOil PSO 418.4 345.59 Reduce 36.7 50.8 91.5 11.4 8.2 4.6 2.1 1.7 1.3 1.3 1.2 2.4

Electricity

HubPowerCo. HUBC 53.8 72.19 Buy 7.1 8.8 7.0 7.6 6.1 7.7 2.0 1.9 2.0 11.2 14.9 16.7

KotAdduPowerCompany KAPCO 59.8 64.00 Accumulate 6.9 8.4 8.0 8.7 7.2 7.5 2.2 2.2 2.1 11.5 12.5 13.0

FixedLineTelecommunicaon

PakistanTelecommunicaon PTC 31.9 29.71 Reduce 2.2 3.1 4.2 14.2 10.3 7.6 1.4 1.3 1.3 7.1 9.4PersonalGoods

NishatMills NML 122.7 137.54 Accumulate 10.0 16.6 18.7 12.2 7.4 6.6 1.1 0.7 0.7 2.9 3.3 3.9

Banks

AlliedBankLimited ABL 96.0 100.03 Neutral 11.4 14.2 11.7 8.4 6.8 8.2 1.9 1.5 1.4 6.2 5.7 5.7

BankAlFalah BAFL 27.9 32.0* Accumulate 3.4 3.5 3.8 8.3 8.0 7.3 1.3 1.2 1.1 7.2 7.2 5.4

HabibBankLimited HBL 176.7 149.99 Reduce 17.0 17.1 19.1 10.4 10.3 9.2 1.8 1.7 1.5 3.9 4.5 5.1

MCBBankLimited MCB 268.7 245.48 Reduce 18.8 19.7 20.9 14.3 13.7 12.8 2.8 2.6 2.3 4.0 4.7 4.9

NaonalBankofPakistan NBP 57.1 59.99 Accumulate 7.3 2.5 7.4 7.8 23.0 7.7 0.8 0.8 0.7 10.7 3.5 9.6

UnitedBankLtd UBL 165.0 150.03 Reduce 15.6 15.8 16.5 10.5 10.5 10.0 2.0 1.8 1.7 5.2 5.2 5.5

*TPforBAFLrisestoPkR33.8/shareuponsuccessfulWaridstakesale


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4 April 2014

StockSmart


AKD Universe Coverage Clusters Performance

Source: KSE & AKD Research

Stocks Sym bol Pr ice 1 Year 1 Year

1-Apr -14 1M 3M 6M 12M CYTD High Low

KSE-100 Index 27565.50 6.9 7.6 25.4 50.9 9.1 27104.70 17492.00

Industrial Engineering

Al-Ghazi Tractor AGTL 206.64 -24.7 -2.5 1.9 -2.5 -2.7 273.49 197.00

Millat Tractors MTL 466.00 -3.9 -3.6 -1.4 0.0 -3.4 519.58 433.73

Au to m ob ile and Par ts

Indus Motors INDU 396.00 10.9 20.0 21.1 26.6 18.9 398.10 282.00

Pak Suzuki Motors PSMC 203.90 28.2 31.2 51.3 100.1 32.5 167.70 97.29

Constru ction and Materials

DG Khan Cement DGKC 93.12 6.9 3.7 30.7 30.9 8.6 96.43 61.23

Lucky Cement LUCK 332.79 2.2 7.1 42.3 97.3 11.0 321.67 160.97

Chemicals

Engro Polymer Chemicals EPCL 15.59 3.9 8.2 15.9 49.3 16.3 16.66 9.29

ICI Pakistan Limited ICI 375.18 25.3 48.0 109.0 166.1 48.3 326.31 135.37

Lotte Pakistan PTA Limited LOTCHEM 8.03 22.2 7.8 18.6 8.4 9.4 8.89 6.46

Daw ood Hercules DAWH 89.95 8.2 59.0 76.3 70.2 60.3 85.56 37.88

Engro Fertilizers Ltd. EFERT 60.84 2.0 n.a n.a n.a n.a 56.85 29.66

Engro Chemical ENGRO 188.37 -0.2 18.0 37.4 40.2 18.9 187.38 103.25

Fatima Fertilizer FATIMA 31.72 10.8 11.5 23.9 40.7 11.1 30.16 21.29

Fauji Fert. Bin Qasim Ltd. FFBL 43.48 -0.7 -2.2 14.5 13.7 -0.8 45.42 36.90

Fauji Fertilizer Company FFC 112.36 3.3 -1.9 10.3 0.1 0.4 119.52 101.37

Food Produ cers

Engro Foods Limited EFOODS 122.41 26.8 17.3 20.1 -4.5 17.2 162.22 80.37

Non Life Ins ur ance

Adamjee Insurance AICL 47.07 13.1 22.4 80.3 89.4 26.0 74.12 23.57

Oil & Gas

Oil & Gas Development Co. OGDC 246.59 -6.0 -11.8 3.3 20.6 -10.8 287.84 197.32

Pak Oilf ields POL 546.56 9.5 7.7 25.5 19.3 9.8 539.63 428.73

Pakistan State Oil PSO 441.75 22.5 32.0 60.7 115.9 33.0 367.10 184.67

Electricity

Hub Pow er Co. HUBC 53.06 -2.9 -13.9 -18.6 3.1 -12.6 73.42 50.13

Kot Addu Pow er Company KAPCO 59.05 2.2 -4.2 -8.0 11.2 -4.4 68.34 49.53

Fixed Line Telecomm unication

Pakistan Telecommunication PTC 30.90 5.6 7.0 15.3 51.2 8.6 31.70 17.46

Personal Goods

Nisaht (Chunian) Ltd. NCL 47.62 -10.6 -24.6 -16.0 -2.2 -20.9 68.82 43.31

Nishat Mills NML 118.44 -10.3 -11.3 27.4 40.3 -6.9 140.79 69.03

Banks

Allied Bank Limited ABL 95.98 19.3 17.3 34.3 77.2 17.3 94.51 55.01

Askari Bank Limited AKBL 17.12 25.4 22.4 33.1 7.1 22.3 16.15 10.76

Bank AlFalah BAFL 27.20 -2.3 -0.4 30.7 79.3 0.6 28.66 14.77

Habib Bank Limited HBL 175.55 19.0 17.4 27.2 98.9 15.9 181.57 88.00

Habib Metropolitan Bank HMB 26.70 9.9 4.7 20.6 71.4 6.5 26.16 14.61

MCB Bank Limited MCB 258.42 5.7 -0.4 12.0 49.9 1.1 316.87 183.00

Meezan Bank Limited MEBL 39.50 4.0 1.8 4.5 50.0 0.3 40.87 24.11

National Bank of Pakistan NBP 54.50 -3.8 -6.2 9.9 38.5 -6.1 60.01 37.66

United Bank Ltd UBL 164.00 23.0 23.3 27.4 97.0 23.7 154.21 82.16

Absolut e Per fo rm ance (%)


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4 April 2014

StockSmart


Economic Snapshot

Source: SBP, PBS & AKD Research

End Month Data Units Jun -13 Jul -13 Aug -13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14

T-bill

3M % 9.26 8.93 9.00 9.15 9.47 9.63 9.93 9.92 9.91

6M % 9.16 9.01 9.20 9.35 9.68 9.88 10.02 9.98 9.95

12M % 9.21 9.00 9.28 9.41 9.76 9.91 10.05 9.99 9.99

PIB 10Y % 10.86 11.57 11.97 12.28 12.83 12.93 12.90 12.59 12.80

KIBOR 6M % 9.39 9.08 9.15 9.29 9.55 9.52 10.13 10.14 10.15

Discount rate % 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.50 9.50 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00

Inflation

Headline inflation % 5.90 8.26 8.55 7.40 9.10 10.90 9.18 7.90 7.90

Core inflation % 7.80 8.20 8.50 8.70 8.40 8.50 8.20 8.00 7.80

Food inflation % 7.90 9.20 10.30 7.90 9.80 13.00 9.30 7.20 7.60

External Indicators

Export (PBS) US$ (mn) 2,197 2,095 1,996 2,622 1,864 1,804 2,275 2,061 2,167

Import (PBS) US$ (mn) 3,940 3,814 3,572 3,791 3,281 3,651 3,561 4,137 3,600

Trade Deficit (PBS) US$ (mn) (1,743) (1,719) (1,576) (1,169) (1,417) (1,847) (1,286) (2,076) (1,433)

Home Remittances US$ (mn) 1,165 1,404 1,233 1,283 1,348 1,131 1,385 1,246 1,210

Current Account US$ (mn) (163) 46 (575) (574) (166) (572) 285 (464) 164

Banking Sector

Deposits PkR (bn) 7,316 7,069 7,174 7,125 7,133 7,309 7,529 7,566 7,599

Advances PkR (bn) 3,869 3,788 3,817 3,831 3,921 4,008 4,071 4,127 4,110

Investments PkR (bn) 4,129 3,837 3,708 3,873 3,776 4,035 4,070 4,217 4,443

W. Avg. lending rate % 11.36 11.28 11.11 11.10 11.10 11.13 11.07 n.a n.a

W. Avg. deposit rate % 5.01 4.97 4.83 4.79 4.90 4.89 5.05 n.a n.a

Spread rate % 6.35 6.31 6.28 6.31 6.20 6.24 6.02 n.a n.a

Public Finance

Tax collection PkR (mn) 267,608 124,257 147,221 203,596 153,329 n.a n.a n.a n.a

Direct taxes PkR (mn) 128,889 30,745 44,574 86,436 50,466 n.a n.a n.a n.a

Indirect Taxes PkR (mn) 138,719 93,512 102,647 117,160 102,863 n.a n.a n.a n.a

Currency

Reserves (RHS) US$ (mn) 11,020 10,287 9,998 9,995 9,525 8,247 8,314 7,988 8,744

USDPkR - Interbank PkR/USD 98.94 101.90 104.51 105.24 106.89 107.64 106.93 105.49 105.12


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Limited. AKD Securities Limited has produced this report for private circulation to professional and institutional clients only. The information,opinions and estimates herein are not directed at, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity in any jurisdiction where doing sowould be contrary to law or regulation or which would subject AKD Securities Limited to any additional registration or licensing requirementwithin such jurisdiction. The information and statistical data herein have been obtained from sources we believe to be reliable and complied byour research department in good faith. Such information has not been independently verified and we make no representation or warranty as toits accuracy, completeness or correctness. Any opinions or estimates herein reflect the judgment of AKD Securities Limited at the date of thispublication/ communication and are subject to change at any time without notice.

This report is not a solicitation or any offer to buy or sell any of the securities mentioned herein. It is for information purposes only and is notintended to provide professional, investment or any other type of advice or recommendation and does not take into account the particular invest-ment objectives, financial situation or needs of individual recipients. Before acting on any information in this publication/communication, youshould consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, if appropriate, seek professional advice. Neither AKD SecuritiesLimited nor any of its affiliates or any other person connected with the company accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequentialloss arising from any use of this report or the information contained therein.

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Analyst CertificationWe, theAKD Research Team, hereby individually & jointly certify that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our person-al views about the subject securities and issuers. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is,or will be, directly or indirectly, relatedto the specific recommendations or views expressed in this research report. We further certify that we do not have any beneficial holding of thespecific securities that we have recommendations on in this report.

AKD Research Team

Analyst Tel no. E-mail Coverage

Naveed Vakil +92 111 253 111 (692) [email protected] Director - Research & Business Development

Raza Jafri, CFA +92 111 253 111 (693) [email protected] Pakistan Economy & Commercial Banks

Anum Dhedhi +92 111 253 111 (637) [email protected] Pakistan Economy

Bilal Alvi +92 111 253 111 (647) [email protected] Textiles, Cements & Chemical

Qasim Anwar +92 111 253 111 (680) [email protected] Technical Analysis

Hassan Quadri +92 111 253 111 (639) [email protected] Research Production / Autos

Azher Ali Quli +92 111 253 111 (646) [email protected] Research Production

Nasir Khan +92 111 253 111 (646) [email protected] Research Production

Tariq Mehmood +92 111 253 111 (643) [email protected] Library Operations

4 April 2014

stock smart weekly (apr 04, 2014)

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