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STRATEGI INVESTASI
Badan Pengawas Pasar Modal dan Lembaga KeuanganDEPARTEMEN KEUANGAN REPUBLIK INDONESIA
Untuk melindungi kekayaan (aset)terhadap pengaruh inflasi
Untuk mendapatkan keuntunganyang lebih besar dimasa yang akandatang
Untuk mengantisipasi ketidakpastianpendapatan dimasa yang akandatang
MENGAPA BERINVESTASI?
Investasi pada saham hampir samadengan judi
Efek Pendapatan Tetap (obligasi)memiliki pendapatan yang tetap
Produk reksa dana adalah produkbank
Produk reksa dana mirip dengandeposito
COMMON MISCONCEPTION KEMANA BERINVESTASI?
Physical Assets Financial Assets
Land
Property
Vehicles
Precious metals Capital
market Money
market
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Sertifikat Bank Indonesia (SBI)
Deposito Berjangka (TimeDeposits)
Commercial Papers
Promissory Notes
Obligasi yang jatuh tempokurang dari 1 (satu) tahun
INVESTASI DI P ASAR UANG
Saham (Stocks)
Obligasi (Bonds)
Reksa Dana (InvestmentFunds)
Derivatives
INVESTASI DI PASAR MODAL
RI SK/ RETURN TRADEOFF
Standard Deviation (Risk)
Re
tur
nLow Risk
Low Return
High Risk
High Potential Return
RI SK/ RETURN TRADEOFF
Risk
Re
tur
n
Risk / Return Characteristics
Deposito
Reksa Dana
Saham
Obligasi
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RI SK FROM AN I NVESTORSPERSPECTI VE
IssuerSpecific
Risk
Investors
Equities
ReksaDana
Bonds and Cash
Business Risk
Credit Risk
Liquidity Risk
Operational Risk
Legal Risk
Market Risk
Political risk
FX risk
Economic Risk
HOW I NVESTORS CAN M ANAGE
RI SKS
Dont put all eggs in one basket, i.e. diversify
Take a long-term view
Do not market time, try dollar cost averaging instead
Choose the level of risk they are comfortable with
Perhaps the best advice....
Do not invest in anything you dont understand!
Perhaps the best advice....
Do not invest in anything you dont understand!
Mid-1970s Recession 1987 Market Crash
Diversified PortfolioStocks
Dec1990
$500
$1,000
$1,500
Jun1987
Jun1988
Jun1989
$1,324
$1,227
$1,149
$1,014
Jun1976
$500
$1,000
$1,500
Dec1972
Dec1973
Dec1974
Diversified PortfolioStocks
Diversified Portfolio: 35% stocks, 40% bonds, 25% Treasury bills.Hypothetical value of $1,000 invested at month-end December 1972 and June 1987, respectively Source: Ibbotson Associates.
DI VERSI FI CATI ON
Conservative Investors
Moderate Investors
Aggressive Investors
TIPE-TIPE INVESTOR
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SEBELUM BERINVENTASI
Tujuan investasi
Jangka waktu investasi
Keamanan Dana
Keamanan Dana dan Pendapatan
Pendapatan dan Pertumbuhan
Pertumbuhan
Tingkat risiko yang sanggup ditanggung
Keadaan keuangan
Pengetahuan
Tentang investasi secara umum
Tentang produk yang akan dibeli
Buy and Hold Strategy
Active Strategy
STRATEGI INVESTASI
BUY AND HOLD
Conservative Investors
Money
Market
30%
Bond
40%
Stock
30%
BUY AND HOLD
Moderate Investors
Stock
50%
Bond
30%
Money
Market
20%
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BUY AND HOLD
Aggressive Investors
Money
Market
10%
Bond
20%
Stock
70%
ACTI VE STRATEGY
Assets Allocation (Where)
Securities Selection (Which)
Market Timing (When)
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%SecuritiesSelection
AssetAllocation
MarketTiming
4%
94%
2%
Determinants of Portfolio Performance
MAKI NG THE RI GHT ASSETS
ALLOCATI ON DECI SI ONASSETS ALLOCATI ON
Stock
0 20 40 60 80 100
Con
Mod
Agg
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ASSETS ALLOCATI ON
Bond
0 20 40 60 80 100
Con
Mod
Agg
ASSETS ALLOCATI ON
Money Market
0 20 40 60 80 100
Con
Mod
Agg
SECURI TI ES SELECTI ON
Big cap vs. small cap stocks
Growth vs. value stocks
Short-term vs. long term bonds
Fixed rate vs. variable rate
BI G CAP VS SMALL CAP
Focus
CompanyCharacteristics
Risks
Return
BIG CAP SMALL CAP
Emphasis on large andwell-established
companies
Emphasis on small,
emerging, and start-upcompanies
Reliable sales and
dividends
Sales and earningsfluctuate, dividends
are minor
Usually diversified, sorisk is low
Un-diversified, sovolatility of earnings
and risk is high
Moderate returns that
include dividends
No dividends butpotentially high or low
capital appreciation
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CONTOH SOAL
Perusahaan XYZ menerbitkan obligasi sebesar Rp. 100 milyar dengan
tingkat bunga tetap 12% pertahun dan jatuh tempo dalam 3 tahun.
Tingkat imbal hasil yang diharapkan investor atas obligasi ini adalah
10%. Berapakah harga pasar obligasi tersebut?
Vb =12 M
(1 + 10%)1
+
12 M
(1 + 10%)2
+
12 M
(1 + 10%)3
+
100 M
(1 + 10%)3
= Rp. 104.973.703.982 atau 104.97%
MARKET TI MI NG
Mengapa pasar bisa naik turun?
Pasar akan naik apabila banyak
investor yang menempatkan dananya
di pasar modal
Pasar akan turun apabila banyak
investor yang menarik dananya dari
pasar modal
MA RKET CYCLE
Recession Early Recovery
Late RecoveryStagflation
1
23
4
Small cap growth stocks
Intermediate bonds
Small cap value stocks
Intermediate bonds
Big cap value stocks
Short term bonds
Big cap growth stocks
Long term bonds
EARLY RECOVERY
Inflasi rendah atau dalam trend yang menurun
Ekonomi berkembang tapi belum membawa
pengaruh terhadap naiknya inflasi
Small cap growth stocks
Intermediate bonds
Investasi di:
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LATE RECOVERY
Inflasi mulai bergerak naik
Ekonomi berkembang pesat
Small cap value stocks
Intermediate term bonds
Investasi di:
STAGFLATI ON
Inflasi naik dengan tajam
Ekonomi mulai bergerak lambat
Large cap value stocks
Short term bonds
Investasi di:
RECESSI ON
Inflasi menurun tajam
Ekonomi masih bergerak sangat lambat
Large cap growth stocks
Long Term bonds
Investasi di:
PORTFOLI O ALLOCATI ON
FOR EACH STAGE
Co nservative M oderate A ggressive
EarlyRecovery
LateRecovery
Stagflation
Recession
50% stocks
40% bonds10% cash
30% stocks
20% bonds50% cash
10% stocks10% bonds
80% cash
15% stocks65% bonds20% cash
70% stocks
25% bonds5% cash
50% stocks
10% bonds40% cash
30% stocks25% bonds
45% cash
40% stocks45% bonds15% cash
90% stocks
10% bonds0% cash
70% stocks
0% bonds30% cash
50% stocks10% bonds
40% cash
60% stocks30% bonds10% cash
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5-Year Holding Periods
1-Year Holding Periods
SmallCompany
Stocks
LargeCompanyStocks
GovernmentBonds
TreasuryBills-75%
-50%
-25%
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
125%
150%
20-Year Holding Periods
10.2%12.1% 5.5% 3.8%
Compound Annual Return
Reduction of Risk over Time 1926-2002
Each bar shows the range o f compound a nnua l re tu rns fo r e ach a sse t c l as s over the per i od 1926 -2002 Source: I bbo tsonAssoc ia te s
MARKET TIMING & VOLATILITY
DOLLAR COST AVERAGI NG
Menempatkan dana secara bertahap padasuatu portofolio untuk menghindari risikofluktuasi harga dalam jangka pendek
Definisi
Mengurangi risiko investasi
Mendapatkan hasil yang lebih baik
Tujuan
DOLLAR COST AVERAGI NG
NAB Penempatan Dana Jumlah UP Hasil Investasi
1.000 4.000.000 4.000 1.000 x 4.000 = 4.000.000
500 3.000.000 6.000 500 x 10.000 = 5.000.000
750 3.000.000 4.000 750 x 14.000 = 10.500.000
NAB Penempatan Dana Jumlah UP Hasil Investasi
1.000 10.000.000 10.000 1.000 x 10.000 = 10.000.000
500 0 0 500 x 10.000 = 5.000.000
750 0 0 750 x 10.000 = 7.500.000
STRATEGI INVESTASI