strategi investasi

8/14/2019 Strategi Investasi

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STRATEGI INVESTASI

Badan Pengawas Pasar Modal dan Lembaga KeuanganDEPARTEMEN KEUANGAN REPUBLIK INDONESIA

Untuk melindungi kekayaan (aset)terhadap pengaruh inflasi

Untuk mendapatkan keuntunganyang lebih besar dimasa yang akandatang

Untuk mengantisipasi ketidakpastianpendapatan dimasa yang akandatang

MENGAPA BERINVESTASI?

Investasi pada saham hampir samadengan judi

Efek Pendapatan Tetap (obligasi)memiliki pendapatan yang tetap

Produk reksa dana adalah produkbank

Produk reksa dana mirip dengandeposito

COMMON MISCONCEPTION KEMANA BERINVESTASI?

Physical Assets Financial Assets

Land

Property

Vehicles

Precious metals Capital

market Money

market


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Sertifikat Bank Indonesia (SBI)

Deposito Berjangka (TimeDeposits)

Commercial Papers

Promissory Notes

Obligasi yang jatuh tempokurang dari 1 (satu) tahun

INVESTASI DI P ASAR UANG

Saham (Stocks)

Obligasi (Bonds)

Reksa Dana (InvestmentFunds)

Derivatives

INVESTASI DI PASAR MODAL

RI SK/ RETURN TRADEOFF

Standard Deviation (Risk)

Re

tur

nLow Risk

Low Return

High Risk

High Potential Return

RI SK/ RETURN TRADEOFF

Risk

Re

tur

n

Risk / Return Characteristics

Deposito

Reksa Dana

Saham

Obligasi


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RI SK FROM AN I NVESTORSPERSPECTI VE

IssuerSpecific

Risk

Investors

Equities

ReksaDana

Bonds and Cash

Business Risk

Credit Risk

Liquidity Risk

Operational Risk

Legal Risk

Market Risk

Political risk

FX risk

Economic Risk

HOW I NVESTORS CAN M ANAGE

RI SKS

Dont put all eggs in one basket, i.e. diversify

Take a long-term view

Do not market time, try dollar cost averaging instead

Choose the level of risk they are comfortable with

Perhaps the best advice....

Do not invest in anything you dont understand!

Perhaps the best advice....

Do not invest in anything you dont understand!

Mid-1970s Recession 1987 Market Crash

Diversified PortfolioStocks

Dec1990

$500

$1,000

$1,500

Jun1987

Jun1988

Jun1989

$1,324

$1,227

$1,149

$1,014

Jun1976

$500

$1,000

$1,500

Dec1972

Dec1973

Dec1974

Diversified PortfolioStocks

Diversified Portfolio: 35% stocks, 40% bonds, 25% Treasury bills.Hypothetical value of $1,000 invested at month-end December 1972 and June 1987, respectively Source: Ibbotson Associates.

DI VERSI FI CATI ON

Conservative Investors

Moderate Investors

Aggressive Investors

TIPE-TIPE INVESTOR


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SEBELUM BERINVENTASI

Tujuan investasi

Jangka waktu investasi

Keamanan Dana

Keamanan Dana dan Pendapatan

Pendapatan dan Pertumbuhan

Pertumbuhan

Tingkat risiko yang sanggup ditanggung

Keadaan keuangan

Pengetahuan

Tentang investasi secara umum

Tentang produk yang akan dibeli

Buy and Hold Strategy

Active Strategy

STRATEGI INVESTASI

BUY AND HOLD

Conservative Investors

Money

Market

30%

Bond

40%

Stock

30%

BUY AND HOLD

Moderate Investors

Stock

50%

Bond

30%

Money

Market

20%


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BUY AND HOLD

Aggressive Investors

Money

Market

10%

Bond

20%

Stock

70%

ACTI VE STRATEGY

Assets Allocation (Where)

Securities Selection (Which)

Market Timing (When)

100%

90%

80%

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%SecuritiesSelection

AssetAllocation

MarketTiming

4%

94%

2%

Determinants of Portfolio Performance

MAKI NG THE RI GHT ASSETS

ALLOCATI ON DECI SI ONASSETS ALLOCATI ON

Stock

0 20 40 60 80 100

Con

Mod

Agg


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ASSETS ALLOCATI ON

Bond

0 20 40 60 80 100

Con

Mod

Agg

ASSETS ALLOCATI ON

Money Market

0 20 40 60 80 100

Con

Mod

Agg

SECURI TI ES SELECTI ON

Big cap vs. small cap stocks

Growth vs. value stocks

Short-term vs. long term bonds

Fixed rate vs. variable rate

BI G CAP VS SMALL CAP

Focus

CompanyCharacteristics

Risks

Return

BIG CAP SMALL CAP

Emphasis on large andwell-established

companies

Emphasis on small,

emerging, and start-upcompanies

Reliable sales and

dividends

Sales and earningsfluctuate, dividends

are minor

Usually diversified, sorisk is low

Un-diversified, sovolatility of earnings

and risk is high

Moderate returns that

include dividends

No dividends butpotentially high or low

capital appreciation


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CONTOH SOAL

Perusahaan XYZ menerbitkan obligasi sebesar Rp. 100 milyar dengan

tingkat bunga tetap 12% pertahun dan jatuh tempo dalam 3 tahun.

Tingkat imbal hasil yang diharapkan investor atas obligasi ini adalah

10%. Berapakah harga pasar obligasi tersebut?

Vb =12 M

(1 + 10%)1

+

12 M

(1 + 10%)2

+

12 M

(1 + 10%)3

+

100 M

(1 + 10%)3

= Rp. 104.973.703.982 atau 104.97%

MARKET TI MI NG

Mengapa pasar bisa naik turun?

Pasar akan naik apabila banyak

investor yang menempatkan dananya

di pasar modal

Pasar akan turun apabila banyak

investor yang menarik dananya dari

pasar modal

MA RKET CYCLE

Recession Early Recovery

Late RecoveryStagflation

1

23

4

Small cap growth stocks

Intermediate bonds

Small cap value stocks

Intermediate bonds

Big cap value stocks

Short term bonds

Big cap growth stocks

Long term bonds

EARLY RECOVERY

Inflasi rendah atau dalam trend yang menurun

Ekonomi berkembang tapi belum membawa

pengaruh terhadap naiknya inflasi

Small cap growth stocks

Intermediate bonds

Investasi di:


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LATE RECOVERY

Inflasi mulai bergerak naik

Ekonomi berkembang pesat

Small cap value stocks

Intermediate term bonds

Investasi di:

STAGFLATI ON

Inflasi naik dengan tajam

Ekonomi mulai bergerak lambat

Large cap value stocks

Short term bonds

Investasi di:

RECESSI ON

Inflasi menurun tajam

Ekonomi masih bergerak sangat lambat

Large cap growth stocks

Long Term bonds

Investasi di:

PORTFOLI O ALLOCATI ON

FOR EACH STAGE

Co nservative M oderate A ggressive

EarlyRecovery

LateRecovery

Stagflation

Recession

50% stocks

40% bonds10% cash

30% stocks

20% bonds50% cash

10% stocks10% bonds

80% cash

15% stocks65% bonds20% cash

70% stocks

25% bonds5% cash

50% stocks

10% bonds40% cash

30% stocks25% bonds

45% cash


90% stocks

10% bonds0% cash

70% stocks

0% bonds30% cash

50% stocks10% bonds

40% cash



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5-Year Holding Periods


SmallCompany

Stocks

LargeCompanyStocks

GovernmentBonds

TreasuryBills-75%

-50%

-25%

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

125%

150%


10.2%12.1% 5.5% 3.8%

Compound Annual Return

Reduction of Risk over Time 1926-2002

Each bar shows the range o f compound a nnua l re tu rns fo r e ach a sse t c l as s over the per i od 1926 -2002 Source: I bbo tsonAssoc ia te s

MARKET TIMING & VOLATILITY

DOLLAR COST AVERAGI NG

Menempatkan dana secara bertahap padasuatu portofolio untuk menghindari risikofluktuasi harga dalam jangka pendek

Definisi

Mengurangi risiko investasi

Mendapatkan hasil yang lebih baik

Tujuan

DOLLAR COST AVERAGI NG

NAB Penempatan Dana Jumlah UP Hasil Investasi

1.000 4.000.000 4.000 1.000 x 4.000 = 4.000.000

500 3.000.000 6.000 500 x 10.000 = 5.000.000

750 3.000.000 4.000 750 x 14.000 = 10.500.000

NAB Penempatan Dana Jumlah UP Hasil Investasi

1.000 10.000.000 10.000 1.000 x 10.000 = 10.000.000

500 0 0 500 x 10.000 = 5.000.000

750 0 0 750 x 10.000 = 7.500.000

STRATEGI INVESTASI

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