SURVEYING EXPO | 25 July 2014

David SykesSenior Demographic Researcher

Looking back 40 years: Melbourne

19712011Population2.4 million4.1 millionAge mix (0-17, 18-64, 65+)33% / 59% / 8%22% / 65% / 13%Life expectancyMale: 68 Female: 75Male: 79 Female: 84Manufacturing job share33%14%No of containers at Port of Melbourne Few Swanston Dock opened in 19692.4 millionAverage house price $14,800 (mean)$500,000 (median)Average house price(Port Melbourne)25% below metro average (1981)85% above metro averagePopulation of Melton6,000100,000

3Changing distribution of changeMelbourne 80s to early 90sMelbourne 2000s

3Total dwelling approvals 2001-2013CENTRALSOUTHERNEASTERNNORTHERNWESTERN18%27%15%19%22%

3Annual dwelling approvals change over a decadeCENTRALSOUTHERNEASTERNNORTHERNWESTERN+63%-11%-4%+47%+18%GREATER MELBOURNE+17%

3Changing dwelling typesSource: ABS Building Approvals

3Victorian population facts as at 2013Total Population:5.79 million

Annual growth:107,900 (1.9% p.a.)

3Victorian population facts as at 2013Total Population:5.79 million

Annual growth:107,900 (1.9% p.a.)

Net overseas migration:62,300Net interstate migration: 7,500Natural increase:38,100

Some trends are unmistakeable2Strong growthUrbanisationChanging age structure

Projections driven by strong natural increase and overseas migration

Categories of net overseas migrationNet Overseas Migration, by major groupings and visa, Victoria 2010-11OtherTemporaryPermanent

80%+ of Victorias growth in Melbourne 5Source: ABS 2013; DTPLI 2014ProjectedHistoric+1.9m+1.6m (80%)+4.5m+3.6m (82%)

Total population change by LGA, 2011-31

Average annual growth rate by LGA, 2011-31

Proportion of population aged 0-19 years, 2031

Proportion of population aged 65+ years, 2031

Households by Type, 2011-51May not sum to 100% due to rounding

Couple family without childrenCouple family with childrenGroup households and other familiesFemale lone personMale lone personOne parent familyHousehold Types, 2011 2031

Couple family without childrenCouple family with childrenGroup households and other familiesFemale lone personMale lone personOne parent familyHousehold Types, 2011 2031

Couple family without childrenCouple family with childrenGroup households and other familiesFemale lone personMale lone personOne parent familyHousehold Types, 2011 2031

Uncertain CertainLong termchangeShort term changePopulation will growPopulation will ageMost pop growth will be in cities Melbs pop will reach 5 m / 6mHow population will change in Individual LGAsWill a 60 year old behave in 2034as a 60 year old behaves in 2014?The number of 60 year olds in 2034Future levels of overseas migrationWhen Melbs pop reaches 5m / 6mCertainty and uncertainty

3Certainty and uncertainty

3Projection horizonCertainty and uncertainty

31971www.flickr.com/photos/aussiefordadverts/5282282100/Certainty and uncertainty

3www.themotorreport.com.au/51241/holden-commodore-ve-ii-ss-v-redline-edition-sedan-road-test-review1971www.flickr.com/photos/aussiefordadverts/5282282100/Certainty and uncertainty2011

3www.themotorreport.com.au/51241/holden-commodore-ve-ii-ss-v-redline-edition-sedan-road-test-review1971www.flickr.com/photos/aussiefordadverts/5282282100/www.digitaltrends.com/features/faster-forward-imagining-the-future-car-of-2050/#!9RImc2051?Certainty and uncertainty2011

32011www.themotorreport.com.au/51241/holden-commodore-ve-ii-ss-v-redline-edition-sedan-road-test-review1971www.flickr.com/photos/aussiefordadverts/5282282100/www.digitaltrends.com/features/faster-forward-imagining-the-future-car-of-2050/#!9RImc2051?Certainty and uncertainty

Looking back 40 years,looking forward 40 years: Melbourne

197120112051Population2.4 million4.1 million7.8 millionAge mix (0-17, 18-64, 65+)33% / 59% / 8%22% / 65% / 13%21% / 58% / 21%Life expectancyMale: 68 Female: 75Male: 79 Female: 84Male: 88 Female: 90Manufacturing job share33%14%?No of containers at Port of Melbourne Few Swanston Dock opened in 19692.4 million8 million?(2035)Average house price $14,800 (mean)$500,000 (median)?Average house price(Port Melbourne)25% below metro average (1981)85% above metro average?Population of Melton6,000100,000350,000-400,000k?

SURVEYING EXPO | 25 July 2014

David SykesSenior Demographic Researcher

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