surveying expo | 25 july 2014 david sykes senior demographic researcher

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SURVEYING EXPO | 25 July 2014 David Sykes Senior Demographic Researcher. Looking back 40 years: Melbourne. Changing distribution of change. Melbourne – 80’s to early 90’s. Melbourne – 2000s. 3. Total dwelling approvals 2001-2013. NORTHERN. 19%. EASTERN. 15%. WESTERN. 18%. 22%. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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  • SURVEYING EXPO | 25 July 2014

    David SykesSenior Demographic Researcher

  • Looking back 40 years: Melbourne

    19712011Population2.4 million4.1 millionAge mix (0-17, 18-64, 65+)33% / 59% / 8%22% / 65% / 13%Life expectancyMale: 68 Female: 75Male: 79 Female: 84Manufacturing job share33%14%No of containers at Port of Melbourne Few Swanston Dock opened in 19692.4 millionAverage house price $14,800 (mean)$500,000 (median)Average house price(Port Melbourne)25% below metro average (1981)85% above metro averagePopulation of Melton6,000100,000

  • 3Changing distribution of changeMelbourne 80s to early 90sMelbourne 2000s

  • 3Total dwelling approvals 2001-2013CENTRALSOUTHERNEASTERNNORTHERNWESTERN18%27%15%19%22%

  • 3Annual dwelling approvals change over a decadeCENTRALSOUTHERNEASTERNNORTHERNWESTERN+63%-11%-4%+47%+18%GREATER MELBOURNE+17%

  • 3Changing dwelling typesSource: ABS Building Approvals

  • 3Victorian population facts as at 2013Total Population:5.79 million

    Annual growth:107,900 (1.9% p.a.)

  • 3Victorian population facts as at 2013Total Population:5.79 million

    Annual growth:107,900 (1.9% p.a.)

    Net overseas migration:62,300Net interstate migration: 7,500Natural increase:38,100

  • Some trends are unmistakeable2Strong growthUrbanisationChanging age structure

  • Projections driven by strong natural increase and overseas migration

  • Categories of net overseas migrationNet Overseas Migration, by major groupings and visa, Victoria 2010-11OtherTemporaryPermanent

  • 80%+ of Victorias growth in Melbourne 5Source: ABS 2013; DTPLI 2014ProjectedHistoric+1.9m+1.6m (80%)+4.5m+3.6m (82%)

  • Total population change by LGA, 2011-31

  • Average annual growth rate by LGA, 2011-31

  • Proportion of population aged 0-19 years, 2031

  • Proportion of population aged 65+ years, 2031

  • Households by Type, 2011-51May not sum to 100% due to rounding

  • Couple family without childrenCouple family with childrenGroup households and other familiesFemale lone personMale lone personOne parent familyHousehold Types, 2011 2031

  • Couple family without childrenCouple family with childrenGroup households and other familiesFemale lone personMale lone personOne parent familyHousehold Types, 2011 2031

  • Couple family without childrenCouple family with childrenGroup households and other familiesFemale lone personMale lone personOne parent familyHousehold Types, 2011 2031

  • Uncertain CertainLong termchangeShort term changePopulation will growPopulation will ageMost pop growth will be in cities Melbs pop will reach 5 m / 6mHow population will change in Individual LGAsWill a 60 year old behave in 2034as a 60 year old behaves in 2014?The number of 60 year olds in 2034Future levels of overseas migrationWhen Melbs pop reaches 5m / 6mCertainty and uncertainty

  • 3Certainty and uncertainty

  • 3Projection horizonCertainty and uncertainty

  • 31971www.flickr.com/photos/aussiefordadverts/5282282100/Certainty and uncertainty

  • 3www.themotorreport.com.au/51241/holden-commodore-ve-ii-ss-v-redline-edition-sedan-road-test-review1971www.flickr.com/photos/aussiefordadverts/5282282100/Certainty and uncertainty2011

  • 3www.themotorreport.com.au/51241/holden-commodore-ve-ii-ss-v-redline-edition-sedan-road-test-review1971www.flickr.com/photos/aussiefordadverts/5282282100/www.digitaltrends.com/features/faster-forward-imagining-the-future-car-of-2050/#!9RImc2051?Certainty and uncertainty2011

  • 32011www.themotorreport.com.au/51241/holden-commodore-ve-ii-ss-v-redline-edition-sedan-road-test-review1971www.flickr.com/photos/aussiefordadverts/5282282100/www.digitaltrends.com/features/faster-forward-imagining-the-future-car-of-2050/#!9RImc2051?Certainty and uncertainty

  • Looking back 40 years,looking forward 40 years: Melbourne

    197120112051Population2.4 million4.1 million7.8 millionAge mix (0-17, 18-64, 65+)33% / 59% / 8%22% / 65% / 13%21% / 58% / 21%Life expectancyMale: 68 Female: 75Male: 79 Female: 84Male: 88 Female: 90Manufacturing job share33%14%?No of containers at Port of Melbourne Few Swanston Dock opened in 19692.4 million8 million?(2035)Average house price $14,800 (mean)$500,000 (median)?Average house price(Port Melbourne)25% below metro average (1981)85% above metro average?Population of Melton6,000100,000350,000-400,000k?

  • SURVEYING EXPO | 25 July 2014

    David SykesSenior Demographic Researcher

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