Sustaining National Meteorological Services
Dr. Louis W. UccelliniDirector, National Weather Service
Riverdale, MDJune 18, 2013
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Everything you read, see or hear about weather, climate and ocean forecasts is based on NWP
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Air Quality
WRF NMM/ARWWorkstation WRF
WRF: ARW, NMMNMMBGFS, Canadian Global Model
Regional NAMWRF NMMB
North American Ensemble Forecast System
Hurricane GFDLHWRF
GlobalForecastSystem
Dispersion
ARL/HYSPLIT
Forecast
Severe Weather
Rapid Refreshfor Aviation
Climate ForecastSystem
Short-RangeEnsemble Forecast
GFS MOM4NOAH Sea Ice
NOAH Land Surface Model
Coupled
Global DataAssimilation
OceansHYCOM
WaveWatch III
NAM/CMAQ
Regi
onal
DA
Satellites + Radar99.9%
~2B Obs/Day
NOS – OFS• Great Lakes• Northern
Gulf of Mex• Columbia R.
Bays• Chesapeake• Tampa • Delaware
SpaceWeather
ENLIL
Regi
onal
DA
Sea Nettle
Forecast
NOAA’s Model Production Suite
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Seamless Suite of NOAA Operational Numerical Guidance Systems
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• NOMADS – NOAA’s National Operational Model Archive and Distribution System real-time and retrospective, format-independent access to climate and
weather model data • A Unified Access Framework approach that engages data providers and users and
has a high probability of demonstrable successes
• Digital archive and real time data of NOAA’s operational weather models
• Readily provides access to domestic and international users of NWS operational models on a “come and get it” basis.
Distributing NWS Operational Model Data: NOMADS Capabilities
• Increasing model resolution will require larger NOMADS capabilities
• Increasing number of users accessing model output from around the world will require more rapid response capabilities
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Major Challenges to NOMADS
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• Run NWS Global Forecast Systems at higher resolution out to 10 days
• High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR)
3 kilometer resolution
Runs every hour
• Ensembles: Higher Resolutions
Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) (going from 55km to 21 km)
Short Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF) (going from 16 km to 12 km)
• Hurricane Models (to be run at 3km)
• Accelerate Storm Surge Modeling for NY, NJ, and New England
An Example of the Model Resolution Increase