The Energy Integration in Southern Africa
Jean-Pierre FavennecIFP Professor – Consultant
Johannesburg – December 2, 2010
Summary
Energy in the world
Energy in Africa
Energy in Southern Africa
Energy in the World
Recent changes :
- Reduction of CO2 emissions
- Limitations of oil production
- New gas situation
- Coal
- Renewables
20.7
12.70
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
$/b
28.8
65.1 72.5
54.5
38.1
97.6
19.1 17.7
28.4
24.5 24.9
61.1
Source : Platt’s S 404*17 – July 2010
Dated Brent price ($/b) – January 1996 – July 2010
Weekly averages
Annual averages
1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Scenariowith reduction of emissions
Reference Scenario
Emissions (Gt CO2)
Natural carbone sequestration
Captured carbon
Fuel switch
Wind, Solar, nuclear
Biofuels
Energy efficiency
Source : Commission Européenne
CO2 emissions
Energy in Africa
South and central America
North America
Africa
Asia non OECD
Europe
China
EL 101*1 – April 2009
Source : AIE
CIS
World electricity generation 2006 World total = 18 921 TWh
5134
3531
959
1658
588Middle East
682 2904
1679
Asia OECD
1786
World electricity production by source (TWh)
Coal 7756
Natural Gas 3807
Nuclear 2792
Hydro 3035
Oil 1096
Renewable 435
AF004 – October 2009
Source : BP Statistical Review
Energy consumption in Africa
Mtoe
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07
Electricité primaire
Charbon
Gaz naturel
Pétrole
Millions de tep
Electricity (primary)
Coal
Natural gas
Oil
The energy divides Divide between Africa
and the rest of the world (15% of world population for 3% of world energy consumption)
Divide between North Africa-South Africa and the rest of Africa
Divide between urban and rural areas: Urban areas look like energy spots
3%
7%
Region energy consumption proportionEnergy barriers
North and South Africa: two specific areas
Hydroelectricity in Africa
Potential
Energy Integration in Southern Africa
Existing situationNeeds in electricity
The Integrated Resource PlanWhat about renewables?
Integration : benefits and existing pools
Source : African Energy
Southern Africa’s power Industry and Interconnections
An existing electrical integration mostly between Mozambique and South Africa
HH
T T
T
W
H
TTTT
N
N Nuclear Power Plant
W Wind Power
T Thermal Power Plant
H Hydro Power Plant
Main power transmission line
Remarque : 1 circle = 3 power plants at least except nuclear power plant for which 1 circle = 1 power plant
Southern African Power Pool
South Africa represents 81% of SAPP in 2010 and will remain at 77% of SAPP in 2025
The Integrated Resource Plan : Context and Description
Obligation after National Energy Act of 2008 Long term electricity capacity plan to develop a
sustainable electricity investment strategy for generation capacity and transmission infrastructure for South Africa over the next 25 years. Demand-side management (DSM) Pricing Capacity provided by all generators (Eskom and independant
power producers) Environment
The Integrated Resource Plan : Hypothesis
GDP growth on average 4,6 % per year over the next 20 years
It requires from 30 439 MW to 52 724 MW of new capacity depending on scenarios for 454 357GWh produced in 2030.
It assumes at least 3420 MW of demand side management programmes
5 models studied to establish the balanced revised scenario
A base case which minimise directs costs 3 emissions limits based scenarios
EM 1.0 : imposes an annual emission limit of 275 MT EM 2.0 : imposes an emission limit of 275 MT of carbon dioxide by 2025 but
allows emissions to go to higher levels prior to 2025 EM 3.0 : imposes a tighter emission limit of 220MT of carbon dioxide from 2020
A Carbon Tax based scenario (CT 0.0) : imposes carbon taxes escalated to 2010 Rands an contained in the LTMS documents
2 others model were studied : a regional developement model and an enhanced DSM model
Sources : DOE
The Integrated Resource Plan
3 scenarios Low Cost Scenario Balanced Scenario Low Carbon Scenario
Funding (BUS$) 78 85 (+10%) 125 (+60%)
Carbon emissions (MT)
380 275 (-30%) 220 (-40%)
Generation mix by 2030
Capacity development (MW)
The Integrated Resource Plan : Challenges A huge amount of renewables capacity
Wind : 4 500 MW in the Balanced scenario up to 2019 Solar : 400 MW Wind + Solar : 7 200 MW between 2019 and 2030
Questions raised : Is it possible to build such capacities : resources, technical
problems Problem of cost and economic rentability? Ability for quick construction and maintenance? Problem of grid stability?
The Integrated Resource Plan : Challenges (2)
Decentralised electricity not adressed
Importance of transmission lines
Integration benefits Benefits : foster the development of the economy. Keys actions :
Develop infrastructures Most important partners :
Mozambique. There is already an important hydro production (Caora Bassa) and new capacities will be built. Mozambique is also supplying natural gas to RSA (Sasol)
Zambia (hydro potential) Zimbabwe
Limited cooperation : RDC. RSA is interested in electricity of Inga. But the Chinese
presence (exchange of raw materials against investments) makes difficult this cooperation.
Angola Key issue : transmission
Euratom (1957)
Euratom (European Atomic Energy Community) Success :
Legal framework, safety standard uniformisation Progressive enlargement of the cooperation Broad development on innovative technology Decrease in energy dependance Efficient information centralisation about nuclear stocks and flows,
and investment Fight against nuclear proliferation
Lacks : Some legislative contents (about normalisation for example) Decision process
ECSC (1951)
European Coal and Steel Community Success :
Long term vision and comon process• Peace, stability, prosperity, solidarity• Efficient response during crisis
Autonomous legal framework• Uniform social protection and labour law
Lacks : Emergence of great enterprises Difficulty for struggling on price non-accordance and for assuring
transparancy No equalization in salary
Benefits of integration
In West Africa cost of kwh supposed to be reduced by 50 % if good interconnections between the different countries of WAPP (West African Power Pool)
Thank you for your attention!