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The Hurricane Engine’s Turbobooster
or
More Power to Hurricanes and Typhoons
Michael T. Montgomery
Naval Post Graduate School, Monterey, CA& NOAA’s Hurricane Resesarch Division, Miami, FL
In collaboration with
John Persing (CSU)Michael Bell (CSU/NCAR)Sim Aberson (NOAA/HRD)
Michael Black (NOAA/HRD)
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MOTIVATION
•What are the key thermodynamical and dynamical processes that determine the maximum intensity of a hurricane within a given environment?
•Is the physics sensitive to the basic geometry ? Axisymmetric (2D) versus 3D.
For majority of this talk the underlying sea surface temperatureis assumed prescribed (an infinite heat bath).
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[No Gilbert, Hugo, Mitch, Andrew, Isabel,…]A GLOBAL VIEW OF TROPICAL CYCLONES (1987)R. ELSBERRY (Editor)
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*
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K. Emanuel
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K. Emanuel 1997 J. Atmos. Sci.1995 J. Atmos. Sci
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Camp & Montgomery 2001
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K. Emanuel 1988 J. Atmos. Sci.
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detailed observations are clearly needed to elucidate the structure, intensity, and
environmental parameters of the anomalous cases.
Figure 2.2: Holland and Emanuel MPI model estimates and the corresponding SST for (a) HMPI and (b) E-MPI. model estimates. Model estimates that were noticeably underestimated (Circles) and the corresponding maximum observed tropical cyclone intensity (Plus signs) are also shown. [From Tonkin et al. (2000)]
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•Eastin (2003) & Lee Joice (2000)(See new data below in this talk)
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EXPT: ZERO Latent/Sensible Fluxes
Within Eye t>13 d
EXP: ZERO Latent & Sensible Fluxes Within Eye t>13 d
EMPI
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Hurricane Ivan (2004)
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≤
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Next Steps
Are there examples of superintense storms in nature ?
Are there examples of superintense storms in 3D models ?
Improve MPI theory
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Hurricane Isabel, September 13, 2003
SSMI 85 GHZ – Brightness Temperature
2218 UTC
GOES Visible
1745 UTC
NOAA P3 (~2 km altitude) – Lower fuselage radar (5 cm)
1747 UTC
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Bull. Amer. Met. Soc., Vol. 80,pgs. 407-420.
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Bell and Montgomery 2006, Mon. Wea. Rev., submitted
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Bell and Montgomery, 2006,Mon. Wea. Rev., submitted
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Montgomery et al., 2006Bull. Amer. Met. Soc., in press.
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Montgomery et al., 2006,Bull. Amer. Met. Soc., in press.
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Montgomery et al., 2006,Bull. Amer. Met. Soc., in press.
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Montgomery et al., 2006,Bull Amer Met Soc in press
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Montgomery et al., 2006,Bull. Amer. Met. Soc., in press.
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