The Hurricane Engine’s Turbobooster

or

More Power to Hurricanes and Typhoons

Michael T. Montgomery

Naval Post Graduate School, Monterey, CA& NOAA’s Hurricane Resesarch Division, Miami, FL

In collaboration with

John Persing (CSU)Michael Bell (CSU/NCAR)Sim Aberson (NOAA/HRD)

Michael Black (NOAA/HRD)

MOTIVATION

•What are the key thermodynamical and dynamical processes that determine the maximum intensity of a hurricane within a given environment?

•Is the physics sensitive to the basic geometry ? Axisymmetric (2D) versus 3D.

For majority of this talk the underlying sea surface temperatureis assumed prescribed (an infinite heat bath).

[No Gilbert, Hugo, Mitch, Andrew, Isabel,…]A GLOBAL VIEW OF TROPICAL CYCLONES (1987)R. ELSBERRY (Editor)

*

K. Emanuel

K. Emanuel 1997 J. Atmos. Sci.1995 J. Atmos. Sci

Camp & Montgomery 2001

K. Emanuel 1988 J. Atmos. Sci.

detailed observations are clearly needed to elucidate the structure, intensity, and

environmental parameters of the anomalous cases.

Figure 2.2: Holland and Emanuel MPI model estimates and the corresponding SST for (a) HMPI and (b) E-MPI. model estimates. Model estimates that were noticeably underestimated (Circles) and the corresponding maximum observed tropical cyclone intensity (Plus signs) are also shown. [From Tonkin et al. (2000)]

•Eastin (2003) & Lee Joice (2000)(See new data below in this talk)

EXPT: ZERO Latent/Sensible Fluxes

Within Eye t>13 d

EXP: ZERO Latent & Sensible Fluxes Within Eye t>13 d

EMPI

Hurricane Ivan (2004)

≤

Next Steps

Are there examples of superintense storms in nature ?

Are there examples of superintense storms in 3D models ?

Improve MPI theory

Hurricane Isabel, September 13, 2003

SSMI 85 GHZ – Brightness Temperature

2218 UTC

GOES Visible

1745 UTC

NOAA P3 (~2 km altitude) – Lower fuselage radar (5 cm)

1747 UTC

Bull. Amer. Met. Soc., Vol. 80,pgs. 407-420.

Bell and Montgomery 2006, Mon. Wea. Rev., submitted

Bell and Montgomery, 2006,Mon. Wea. Rev., submitted

Montgomery et al., 2006Bull. Amer. Met. Soc., in press.

Montgomery et al., 2006,Bull. Amer. Met. Soc., in press.

Montgomery et al., 2006,Bull. Amer. Met. Soc., in press.

Montgomery et al., 2006,Bull Amer Met Soc in press

Montgomery et al., 2006,Bull. Amer. Met. Soc., in press.