Trends of Pork Consumption: Where Are We Going?Brett Stuart
Cartagena July 16
Outline
• Global Protein Demand & Supply• Global Opportunities
GLOBAL DEMAND & SUPPLY
19611965
19691973
19771981
19851989
19931997
20012005
200902468
101214161820 Global Protein Consumption
Seafood
Pork
Poultry
Beef
Kilo
s pe
r Cap
ita
Source: UN/FAO, beef and pork in carc wt equiv.
Global Demand
More mouths…..(375 million – past 5 yrs)
With more $…..(US$4.1 trillion – past 5 yrs)
Source: USDA/FAS
Global Meat and Broiler Production
Source: GTIS, AgriTrends
Source: UN/FAO
20002001
20022003
20042005
20062007
20082009
20102011
20122013f
2014f0
20
40
60
80
100
120Global Pork Production
MM
T
Source: USDA/FAS
Averaging 1.8 MMT Per Year Growth
Total
China EU
Hong Kong
Philippines
Vietnam
Argentina
Ukraine
Brazil
Others0.00.20.40.60.81.01.21.41.61.82.0
1.8
1.344 0.142
0.047 0.043 0.04 0.036 0.033 0.0310.031
Global Pork Consumption Growth Markets: 2014
Bil L
bs, c
arc.
wei
ght e
quiv
.
Growth Markets: 1.800 Bil lbsDeclining Markets: -0.440 Bil lbs
(US down -0.115 Bil Lbs)
Source: USDA/FAS
China
EUU.S
.
Brazi
l
India
Russia
Mex
ico
Argen
tina
Canad
a
Austra
lia -
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80 Global Meat Producers
BroilerPorkBeef
Mil
lio
n M
T
Source: USDA/FAS, 2014F, beef and pork in carcass-weight equivalents
China
EUU.S
.
Brazi
l
Russia
Mex
ico
Japan
India
Argen
tina
Vietn
am -
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180 Global Meat Consumers
BroilerPorkBeef
Bil
Lb
s
Source: USDA/FAS, 2014F, beef and pork in carcass-weight equivalents
Source: USDA/FAS, 2014F, beef and pork in carcass-weight equivalents
Japan
Russia
Mex
ico
China
U.S.
H. Kong EU
S. Ara
bia
S. Kore
a -
1
2
3
4
5
6
7 Global Meat Importers
BroilerPorkBeef
Bil
Lb
s
20002002
20042006
20082010
20122014f
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0Global Pork Exports
U.S.
EU-28
Canada
Brazil
China
Chile
Other
Mill
ion
Met
ric
Tons
Global Opportunities
Source: Various market reports, AgriTrends
19951997
19992001
20032005
20072009
20112013
20152017
20192021
20232025
0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%8%9%
Global Pork Exports as a % of Consumption
Actual Linear (Actual) Forecast
19951998
20012004
20072010
20132016
20192022
20250
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000Global Pork Exports
Actual Linear (Actual) Forecast
Met
ric
Tons
Assumes consumption increases 1.7% annually to 2025 (last 20 years = 1.9%)
Also assumes forecasted ex-ports as % of production
Source: USDA/FAS, beef and pork in carc. wt. equiv.
2014 Imports = 2% of Chinese consumption
Mill
ion
Met
ric T
ons
Source: China MOA, AgriTrends
Chinese Meat + Poultry ConsumptionForecasts in Red
Chinese Corn For FeedForecasts in Yellow
Source: Japan ALIC
Source: USDA, AgriTrends
Source: GTIS, Global AgriTrends
19701973
19761979
19821985
19881991
19941997
20002003
20062009
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000U.S. Beef Trade
Imports
Met
ric
Tons
19701973
19761979
19821985
19881991
19941997
20002003
20062009
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000U.S. Beef Trade
Imports Exports
Met
ric
Tons
20052006
20072008
20092010
20112012
20132014f
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
2.6
2.5
U.S. Beef Imports and Exports
ExportsImports
Billi
on P
ound
s, c
we
Opportunities - Summary• Colombia can participate in global pork
markets• 2013:
– 102 countries purchased imported pork– Lowest import prices COL 1,182 COL Pesos/kg– Highest import price COL 28,507 COL Pesos/kg
Opportunities - Summary• Colombia can participate in global pork
markets– Identify best potential markets (economics and
sanitary requirements)– Assess pork-cut prices and opportunities– Work on gov’t-to-gov’t access
(certificates/licenses)– Be willing to meet importer specifications
Gracias -