Trends of Pork Consumption: Where Are We Going?Brett Stuart

Cartagena July 16

Outline

• Global Protein Demand & Supply• Global Opportunities

GLOBAL DEMAND & SUPPLY

19611965

19691973

19771981

19851989

19931997

20012005

200902468

101214161820 Global Protein Consumption

Seafood

Pork

Poultry

Beef

Kilo

s pe

r Cap

ita

Source: UN/FAO, beef and pork in carc wt equiv.

Global Demand

More mouths…..(375 million – past 5 yrs)

With more $…..(US$4.1 trillion – past 5 yrs)

Source: USDA/FAS

Global Meat and Broiler Production

Source: GTIS, AgriTrends

Source: UN/FAO

20002001

20022003

20042005

20062007

20082009

20102011

20122013f

2014f0

20

40

60

80

100

120Global Pork Production

MM

T

Source: USDA/FAS

Averaging 1.8 MMT Per Year Growth

Total

China EU

Hong Kong

Philippines

Vietnam

Argentina

Ukraine

Brazil

Others0.00.20.40.60.81.01.21.41.61.82.0

1.8

1.344 0.142

0.047 0.043 0.04 0.036 0.033 0.0310.031

Global Pork Consumption Growth Markets: 2014

Bil L

bs, c

arc.

wei

ght e

quiv

.

Growth Markets: 1.800 Bil lbsDeclining Markets: -0.440 Bil lbs

(US down -0.115 Bil Lbs)

Source: USDA/FAS

China

EUU.S

.

Brazi

l

India

Russia

Mex

ico

Argen

tina

Canad

a

Austra

lia -

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80 Global Meat Producers

BroilerPorkBeef

Mil

lio

n M

T

Source: USDA/FAS, 2014F, beef and pork in carcass-weight equivalents

China

EUU.S

.

Brazi

l

Russia

Mex

ico

Japan

India

Argen

tina

Vietn

am -

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180 Global Meat Consumers

BroilerPorkBeef

Bil

Lb

s

Source: USDA/FAS, 2014F, beef and pork in carcass-weight equivalents

Source: USDA/FAS, 2014F, beef and pork in carcass-weight equivalents

Japan

Russia

Mex

ico

China

U.S.

H. Kong EU

S. Ara

bia

S. Kore

a -

1

2

3

4

5

6

7 Global Meat Importers

BroilerPorkBeef

Bil

Lb

s

20002002

20042006

20082010

20122014f

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0Global Pork Exports

U.S.

EU-28

Canada

Brazil

China

Chile

Other

Mill

ion

Met

ric

Tons

Global Opportunities

Source: Various market reports, AgriTrends

19951997

19992001

20032005

20072009

20112013

20152017

20192021

20232025

0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%8%9%

Global Pork Exports as a % of Consumption

Actual Linear (Actual) Forecast

19951998

20012004

20072010

20132016

20192022

20250

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000Global Pork Exports

Actual Linear (Actual) Forecast

Met

ric

Tons

Assumes consumption increases 1.7% annually to 2025 (last 20 years = 1.9%)

Also assumes forecasted ex-ports as % of production

Source: USDA/FAS, beef and pork in carc. wt. equiv.

2014 Imports = 2% of Chinese consumption

Mill

ion

Met

ric T

ons

Source: China MOA, AgriTrends

Chinese Meat + Poultry ConsumptionForecasts in Red

Chinese Corn For FeedForecasts in Yellow

Source: Japan ALIC

Source: USDA, AgriTrends

Source: GTIS, Global AgriTrends

19701973

19761979

19821985

19881991

19941997

20002003

20062009

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000U.S. Beef Trade

Imports

Met

ric

Tons

19701973

19761979

19821985

19881991

19941997

20002003

20062009

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000U.S. Beef Trade

Imports Exports

Met

ric

Tons

20052006

20072008

20092010

20112012

20132014f

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

2.6

2.5

U.S. Beef Imports and Exports

ExportsImports

Billi

on P

ound

s, c

we

Opportunities - Summary• Colombia can participate in global pork

markets• 2013:

– 102 countries purchased imported pork– Lowest import prices COL 1,182 COL Pesos/kg– Highest import price COL 28,507 COL Pesos/kg

Opportunities - Summary• Colombia can participate in global pork

markets– Identify best potential markets (economics and

sanitary requirements)– Assess pork-cut prices and opportunities– Work on gov’t-to-gov’t access

(certificates/licenses)– Be willing to meet importer specifications

Gracias -