UCERF3
Task R6 Fault to Fault Jumping Probabilities:Empirical Surface Rupture Database
Viable ruptures
• Distance between fault sections (e.g. 5 km)
• Strikes can’t vary by more than some amount between neighboring subsections (e.g., 45 degrees)
• Strikes can’t change by more than some total amount along the rupture length (e.g., 90 degrees)
• Rakes can’t change by more than some amount between subsections (e.g., 90 degrees)
• Ruptures can’t include a given subsection more than once (e.g., preventing ruptures from looping back on themselves)
Empirical Database for fault to fault ruptures
Steve Wesnousky’s empirical database for fault steps
1990 Luzon, Philippines
Surface Ruptures
1992 Landers
Surface Ruptures
2002 Denali, Alaska
Surface Ruptures
2001 Kulun, China
Surface Ruptures
Surface Ruptures
1857 Fort Tejon
1939 Erzincan, Turkey
Surface Ruptures
1943 Tosya, Turkey
Surface Ruptures
1945 Mikawa, Japan
Surface Ruptures
1986 Marryat, Australia
Surface Ruptures
Rakes can’t change by more than some amount between subsections (e.g., 90 degrees)
1891 Neodani
Surface Ruptures