UCERF3

Task R6 Fault to Fault Jumping Probabilities:Empirical Surface Rupture Database

Viable ruptures

• Distance between fault sections (e.g. 5 km)

• Strikes can’t vary by more than some amount between neighboring subsections (e.g., 45 degrees)

• Strikes can’t change by more than some total amount along the rupture length (e.g., 90 degrees)

• Rakes can’t change by more than some amount between subsections (e.g., 90 degrees)

• Ruptures can’t include a given subsection more than once (e.g., preventing ruptures from looping back on themselves)

Empirical Database for fault to fault ruptures

Steve Wesnousky’s empirical database for fault steps

1990 Luzon, Philippines

Surface Ruptures

1992 Landers

Surface Ruptures

2002 Denali, Alaska

Surface Ruptures

2001 Kulun, China

Surface Ruptures

Surface Ruptures

1857 Fort Tejon

1939 Erzincan, Turkey

Surface Ruptures

1943 Tosya, Turkey

Surface Ruptures

1945 Mikawa, Japan

Surface Ruptures

1986 Marryat, Australia

Surface Ruptures

Rakes can’t change by more than some amount between subsections (e.g., 90 degrees)

1891 Neodani

Surface Ruptures