UNITAR-UNOSAT | Tropical Cyclone Mora-17, Bangladesh | Population Exposure Analysis – Update 1
UNOSAT
Bangladesh – Tropical Cyclone Mora-17
30 May 2017
Population Exposure Analysis – Update 1
30 May 2017 Geneva, Switzerland
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UNITAR-UNOSAT | Tropical cyclone Mora-17, Bangladesh | Population Exposure Analysis – Update 1
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Overview
Mora-17 is a category 1 tropical cyclone which strongly affected the Chittagong Division of Bangladesh. This cyclone originally came from the Indian ocean (Bay of Bengal) at a speed of about 39 km/h. On 30 May 2017, tropical cyclone Mora-17 made landfall first on Cox’s Bazar District and a few hours later in the Chittagong Districts with a maximum sustainable wind speed of 130 km/h. The tropical cyclone is expected to move to the northeast of India in the next few hours however strong winds might still cause floods and mudslides.
Based on data of the observed and predicted tropical cyclone path, wind speeds from JRC (Warning 11 issued the 30th May 2017 at 09:00 UTC), and population data from WorldPop, UNITAR-UNOSAT conducted a population exposure analysis for Bangladesh :
- 10,074,699 people are living within 120 km/h wind zones, - 2,803,908 people are living within 90km/h wind zones, and
- 67,435,625 people are living within 60km/h wind zones.
Also included is an estimation of the population living within flood hazard zones from the last 25 years (GAR 2015) and exposed to winds of 60km/h to 120km/h speed in Bangladesh. In this sense the total exposed population is 11,034,780, being Chittagong and Sylhet the most vulnerable divisions.
Different media sources are starting to report the damages, including 5 lives lost, 10 injured and around 2’000’00 evacuated people in the country. The number of houses that were destroyed is still unknown, however the strongly affected district of Cox’s Bazar accounts about 17’000 damaged households. (Agencia EFE; La Presse, lté, 30 May 2017)
UNITAR-UNOSAT | Tropical cyclone Mora-17, Bangladesh | Population Exposure Analysis – Update 1
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Population exposure estimates are based on cyclone track (JRC) and WorldPop data
Population Exposure in Bangladesh
Division / District
Wind Speed zones Total
120 km/h 90 km/h 60 km/h
Chittagong 10,074,699 2,067,298 18,691,208 30,833,204
Chittagong 6,891,059 973,434 148,242 8,012,735
Cox'S Bazar 2,151,141 336,747 20,997 2,508,886
Khagrachhari 461,230 209,790 671,020
Rangamati 410,040 231,285 21,575 662,900
Bandarban 161,228 219,954 52,852 434,034
Feni 96,088 1,491,698 1,587,786
Comilla 5,900,591 5,900,591
Noakhali 3,397,121 3,397,121
Brahamanbaria 3,111,244 3,111,244
Chandpur 2,625,897 2,625,897
Lakshmipur 1,920,990 1,920,990
Sylhet 736,610 10,030,178 10,766,788
Sylhet 419,329 3,358,453 3,777,782
Maulvibazar 317,281 1,780,921 2,098,202
Sunamganj 2,613,720 2,613,720
Habiganj 2,277,083 2,277,083
Dhaka 29,588,726 29,588,726
Dhaka 12,535,645 12,535,645
Kishoreganj 3,136,713 3,136,713
Narayanganj 3,129,018 3,129,018
Gazipur 2,724,309 2,724,309
Narsingdi 2,457,958 2,457,958
Munshiganj 1,528,106 1,528,106
Shariatpur 1,302,417 1,302,417
158,290,260 Total population of Bangladesh
10,074,699 Total population living in 120 km/h wind speed
zones
2,803,908 Total population living in 90 km/h wind speed
zones
67,435,625 Total population living in 60 km/h wind speed
zones
UNITAR-UNOSAT | Tropical cyclone Mora-17, Bangladesh | Population Exposure Analysis – Update 1
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Madaripur 1,200,924 1,200,924
Netrakona 810,946 810,946
Mymensingh 383,228 383,228
Gopalganj 205,393 205,393
Faridpur 96,406 96,406
Manikganj 77,665 77,665
Barisal 8,969,075 8,969,075
Barisal 2,515,495 2,515,495
Bhola 1,947,930 1,947,930
Patuakhali 1,686,018 1,686,018
Pirojpur 1,191,882 1,191,882
Barguna 968,498 968,498
Jhalokati 659,252 659,252
Khulna 156,438 156,438
Bagerhat 156,438 156,438
Total 10,074,699 2,803,908 67,435,625 80,314,231
Sources:
Cyclone Track: Joint Research Center-GDACS
Administrative Levels: Humanitarian Data Exchange
Spatial Demographic Data: WorldPop (2015)
Analysis: UNITAR-UNOSAT (30/05/2017)
The population exposure has been calculated using a 100 m resolution WorldPoP dataset. This is a preliminary analysis & has not yet been validated in the field.
Download complete excel table from here
Bangladesh Population Living within Potential Flood Hazard Zones of 25 years return period
Division / District Population living within 25 years
flood return period areas
Sylhet 4,945,732
Sunamganj 1,715,073
Sylhet 2,300,443
Habiganj 634,503
Maulvibazar 295,713
Chittagong 4,631,253
Comilla 1,465,731
Chittagong 1,073,487
11,034,780 Total exposed population of Bangladesh
UNITAR-UNOSAT | Tropical cyclone Mora-17, Bangladesh | Population Exposure Analysis – Update 1
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Brahamanbaria 1,023,471
Chandpur 590,050
Feni 149,503
Noakhali 138,153
Rangamati 77,772
Cox'S Bazar 62,819
Bandarban 37,276
Khagrachhari 10,235
Lakshmipur 2,756
Dhaka 1,295,649
Kishoreganj 558,220
Dhaka 137,122
Gazipur 135,687
Narsingdi 125,734
Netrakona 102,170
Mymensingh 95,216
Narayanganj 38,413
Shariatpur 35,756
Faridpur 27,087
Madaripur 25,194
Munshiganj 11,805
Gopalganj 3,246
Barisal 162,146
Barisal 156,979
Pirojpur 5,167
Total 11,034,780
Sources:
Cyclone Track: Joint Research Center-GDACS
Administrative Levels: Humanitarian Data Exchange
Spatial Demographic Data: WorldPop (2015)
Flood Hazard Data: GAR 2015
Analysis: UNITAR-UNOSAT (30/05/2017)
The population exposure has been calculated using a 100 m resolution WorldPoP dataset. This is a preliminary analysis & has not yet been validated in the field.
Download complete excel table from here
UNITAR-UNOSAT | Tropical Cyclone Mora-17, Bangladesh | Population Exposure Analysis – Update 1