UNITAR-UNOSAT | Tropical Cyclone Mora-17, Bangladesh | Population Exposure Analysis – Update 1

UNOSAT

Bangladesh – Tropical Cyclone Mora-17

30 May 2017

Population Exposure Analysis – Update 1

30 May 2017 Geneva, Switzerland

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UNITAR-UNOSAT | Tropical cyclone Mora-17, Bangladesh | Population Exposure Analysis – Update 1

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Overview

Mora-17 is a category 1 tropical cyclone which strongly affected the Chittagong Division of Bangladesh. This cyclone originally came from the Indian ocean (Bay of Bengal) at a speed of about 39 km/h. On 30 May 2017, tropical cyclone Mora-17 made landfall first on Cox’s Bazar District and a few hours later in the Chittagong Districts with a maximum sustainable wind speed of 130 km/h. The tropical cyclone is expected to move to the northeast of India in the next few hours however strong winds might still cause floods and mudslides.

Based on data of the observed and predicted tropical cyclone path, wind speeds from JRC (Warning 11 issued the 30th May 2017 at 09:00 UTC), and population data from WorldPop, UNITAR-UNOSAT conducted a population exposure analysis for Bangladesh :

- 10,074,699 people are living within 120 km/h wind zones, - 2,803,908 people are living within 90km/h wind zones, and

- 67,435,625 people are living within 60km/h wind zones.

Also included is an estimation of the population living within flood hazard zones from the last 25 years (GAR 2015) and exposed to winds of 60km/h to 120km/h speed in Bangladesh. In this sense the total exposed population is 11,034,780, being Chittagong and Sylhet the most vulnerable divisions.

Different media sources are starting to report the damages, including 5 lives lost, 10 injured and around 2’000’00 evacuated people in the country. The number of houses that were destroyed is still unknown, however the strongly affected district of Cox’s Bazar accounts about 17’000 damaged households. (Agencia EFE; La Presse, lté, 30 May 2017)

UNITAR-UNOSAT | Tropical cyclone Mora-17, Bangladesh | Population Exposure Analysis – Update 1

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Population exposure estimates are based on cyclone track (JRC) and WorldPop data

Population Exposure in Bangladesh

Division / District

Wind Speed zones Total

120 km/h 90 km/h 60 km/h

Chittagong 10,074,699 2,067,298 18,691,208 30,833,204

Chittagong 6,891,059 973,434 148,242 8,012,735

Cox'S Bazar 2,151,141 336,747 20,997 2,508,886

Khagrachhari 461,230 209,790 671,020

Rangamati 410,040 231,285 21,575 662,900

Bandarban 161,228 219,954 52,852 434,034

Feni 96,088 1,491,698 1,587,786

Comilla 5,900,591 5,900,591

Noakhali 3,397,121 3,397,121

Brahamanbaria 3,111,244 3,111,244

Chandpur 2,625,897 2,625,897

Lakshmipur 1,920,990 1,920,990

Sylhet 736,610 10,030,178 10,766,788

Sylhet 419,329 3,358,453 3,777,782

Maulvibazar 317,281 1,780,921 2,098,202

Sunamganj 2,613,720 2,613,720

Habiganj 2,277,083 2,277,083

Dhaka 29,588,726 29,588,726

Dhaka 12,535,645 12,535,645

Kishoreganj 3,136,713 3,136,713

Narayanganj 3,129,018 3,129,018

Gazipur 2,724,309 2,724,309

Narsingdi 2,457,958 2,457,958

Munshiganj 1,528,106 1,528,106

Shariatpur 1,302,417 1,302,417

158,290,260 Total population of Bangladesh

10,074,699 Total population living in 120 km/h wind speed

zones

2,803,908 Total population living in 90 km/h wind speed

zones

67,435,625 Total population living in 60 km/h wind speed

zones

UNITAR-UNOSAT | Tropical cyclone Mora-17, Bangladesh | Population Exposure Analysis – Update 1

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Madaripur 1,200,924 1,200,924

Netrakona 810,946 810,946

Mymensingh 383,228 383,228

Gopalganj 205,393 205,393

Faridpur 96,406 96,406

Manikganj 77,665 77,665

Barisal 8,969,075 8,969,075

Barisal 2,515,495 2,515,495

Bhola 1,947,930 1,947,930

Patuakhali 1,686,018 1,686,018

Pirojpur 1,191,882 1,191,882

Barguna 968,498 968,498

Jhalokati 659,252 659,252

Khulna 156,438 156,438

Bagerhat 156,438 156,438

Total 10,074,699 2,803,908 67,435,625 80,314,231

Sources:

Cyclone Track: Joint Research Center-GDACS

Administrative Levels: Humanitarian Data Exchange

Spatial Demographic Data: WorldPop (2015)

Analysis: UNITAR-UNOSAT (30/05/2017)

The population exposure has been calculated using a 100 m resolution WorldPoP dataset. This is a preliminary analysis & has not yet been validated in the field.

Download complete excel table from here

Bangladesh Population Living within Potential Flood Hazard Zones of 25 years return period

Division / District Population living within 25 years

flood return period areas

Sylhet 4,945,732

Sunamganj 1,715,073

Sylhet 2,300,443

Habiganj 634,503

Maulvibazar 295,713

Chittagong 4,631,253

Comilla 1,465,731

Chittagong 1,073,487

11,034,780 Total exposed population of Bangladesh

UNITAR-UNOSAT | Tropical cyclone Mora-17, Bangladesh | Population Exposure Analysis – Update 1

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Brahamanbaria 1,023,471

Chandpur 590,050

Feni 149,503

Noakhali 138,153

Rangamati 77,772

Cox'S Bazar 62,819

Bandarban 37,276

Khagrachhari 10,235

Lakshmipur 2,756

Dhaka 1,295,649

Kishoreganj 558,220

Dhaka 137,122

Gazipur 135,687

Narsingdi 125,734

Netrakona 102,170

Mymensingh 95,216

Narayanganj 38,413

Shariatpur 35,756

Faridpur 27,087

Madaripur 25,194

Munshiganj 11,805

Gopalganj 3,246

Barisal 162,146

Barisal 156,979

Pirojpur 5,167

Total 11,034,780

Sources:

Cyclone Track: Joint Research Center-GDACS

Administrative Levels: Humanitarian Data Exchange

Spatial Demographic Data: WorldPop (2015)

Flood Hazard Data: GAR 2015

Analysis: UNITAR-UNOSAT (30/05/2017)

The population exposure has been calculated using a 100 m resolution WorldPoP dataset. This is a preliminary analysis & has not yet been validated in the field.

Download complete excel table from here

UNITAR-UNOSAT | Tropical Cyclone Mora-17, Bangladesh | Population Exposure Analysis – Update 1