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Low climate IMpact scenarios and the Implications of required
Tight emission control Strategies
The research leading to these results has received funding from the
European Community’s Seventh Framework Programme FP7/2007-2013
under grant agreement n° 282846 (LIMITS)
Pathways towards 2°C: Global pathways and implications for European climate policy
Detlef van Vuuren, Massimo Tavoni, Elmar Kriegler andKeywan Riahi
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Global emission pathways and carbon budgets
Kriegler et al. (2013) Climate Change Economics
5220-6250 GtCO2
3630-4970 GtCO2
1000-1570 GtCO2
670-1100 GtCO2
2.9-5.9°C
0%
2.4-4.7°C
0-4%
1.5-2.7°C
41-64%
1.4-2.4°C
59-76%
Cumulative CO2 emissions 2011-2100 Warming since preindustrialProb. of staying below 2°C
2C requires early peaking of emissions and small CO2 budgets
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The 4 phases of 2oC pathways
Peak in 2020
Steep emissions reduction
Carbon neutrality Carbon
dioxide removal
Kriegler et al. (2013) Climate Change Economics
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Trend break in decarbonization rates
2020-30 decarbonization rate:
450 ppm immediate action
500 ppm immediate action
2005-2010 decarbonization rate
2°C 550 ppm 2°C 450 ppm
Rate of reduction in carbon intensity of GDP (2010-2040)
Kriegler et al. (2013) Climate Change Economics 4(4), 1340008.
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Durban Failure: delay until 2030 will likely put 2°C out of reach
Steeper decline after 2030
More carbon dioxide removal
Kriegler et al. (2013) Climate Change Economics
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Implications for the major economies
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Deep emissions reduction necessary
6
• Deep and rapid reductions needed in a major economies
• Models identify feasible technically trajectories
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2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
MIDDLE EAST
EIT
AFRICA
INDIA
CHINA
REST ASIA
LATIN AM
PAC OECD
NORTH AM
EUROPE
450 ppm-eq
500 ppm-eq
Pledges
No Policies
7
Peaking time of emissions
Medians and 90 percentile ranges. Source: Tavoni et. Al, 2014, Nature Climate Change
Pledges lead to earlier emission peaking in many major economies, but 2C would
require peaking in all regions in the next 10-15 years
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Regional carbon budgets (2010-2100)
Medians and 90 percentile
ranges. Source: Tavoni et.
Al, 2014, Nature Climate
Change
Without climate policies, the carbon budgets of major regions like China or the
OECD would by themselves exceed the budget compatible with 2C
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Regional carbon budgets (2010-2100)
Medians and 90 percentile
ranges. Source: Tavoni et.
Al, 2014, Nature Climate
Change
Pledges would roughly reduce carbon budgets by half, but not enough to meet 2C.
Under 2C, no major region would have a carbon budgets exceeding few hundreds
GtCO2
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Deep emissions reduction necessary
CH4, N2O
• Most important
contribution
energy
production in all
regions,
especially in
China, India
• Contribution of
end-use about
15-20% of total
• Land use / non-
CO2 about 5-
10% of reduction
each
Fraction of baseline emissions (2010-2050)
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Upscale deployment of carbon free electricity
11 van der Zwaan et al. (2013) A Cross-Model Comparison of Global Long-Term Technology Diffusion under a 2°C Climate Change Control
Target. Climate Change Economics 4(4), 1340013.
2°C 450 ppm scenario
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The distribution of mitigation costs
Source: Tavoni et. Al,
2014, Nature Climate
Change
With uniform carbon pricing and no transfers, climate policies are likely to be
regressive across regions, due to developing countries higher carbon intensity
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Burden sharing schemes
Resource sharing:
Allocation based on the equalization of regional per capita
emissions by 2050
Effort sharing:
Allocation based on equalization of regional mitigation costs
(2025 onwards)
IAMs maximize policy efficiency (equal marginal abatement
costs) -> determine actual emissions levels
Mitigation doesn’t need to be paid domestically -> carbon
markets and permit allocation trading
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Actual emissions and allowances in 2050 compatible with 2C
EU/US:-70-80%
China:-50%
China:-70%
EU/US:-90-95%
India:+40%
MEast:+25%
Tavoni et. Al 2014 Nature Climate Change
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What carbon market and transfers will be needed?
In both schemes, a large carbon market would be needed by the
year 2030
• 4 GtCO2-yr by 2030 … in every year, more than twice the
CERs issued by all CDM projects to date
• 100 USD Billions-yr of transfers
• Trading positions depend on regional abatement opportunities
and allocation scheme: OECD buyers, China/Russia/Middle
East sellers only in the effort sharing scheme.
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Changes in direction of investments and upscaling needed
2010
Reference
2 degrees
• Redirection of investments: from fossil fuel extraction towards
renewables and energy efficiency
• Total increase of investments. 450 scenario requires about 500-600 billion
US$ per year more than reference scenario
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The clean energy investment gap
A gap of about 500 USD Billions-yr exists, 2/3 of which in developing economies
McCollum et. Al 2014
Climate Change
Economics
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Combining climate policy and air pollution control
18
(
b
)
Global PM2.5 concentrations ~30.4 µg/m3 Global PM2.5 concentrations ~50.3 µg/m3
(a)
Global PM2.5 concentrations ~34.0 µg/m3
(b)
Global PM2.5 concentrations ~26.0 µg/m3
(c)
Global PM2.5 concentrations ~15.7 µg/m3
(d)
Global PM2.5 concentrations ~12.3 µg/m3
(e)
BaU Climate Policy
Stringent air pollution policy Both
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Conclusions
• Globally, 2050 emission reduction around 40-
70% for CO2 – strongly depending on
expectations with respect to BECCS
• Possible to derive corresponding budgets for
Europe – with/without burdensharing
• Additional investments needed of around 500
US$ billion per year
• Co-benefits could be substantial
19
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Post 2020 climate scenarios assessed in the project
• No Policies: baseline
• Fragmented: national pledges extrapolated beyond
2020/2030 at two levels of ambition (‘reference’ and
‘strengthened’, and no international coordination
• 2C: full cooperation post 2020/2030 towards 450ppm
and 500 ppm, with equal carbon pricing and different
burden sharing schemes