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What isGlobal Environmental Change?
Changes in the biogeophysical environment caused or strongly influenced by human activities
Land cover & soils
Atmospheric composition
Climate variability & means
Water availability & quality
For example changes in:
Nitrogen availability & cycling
Biodiversity
Sea currents & salinity
Sea level
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Some examples ofhuman activities leading to GEC
Deforestation
Fossil fuel consumption
Urbanisation
Land reclamation
Agricultural intensification
Freshwater extraction
Fisheries overexploitation
Waste production
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• How will Global Environmental Change affect the vulnerability of food systems in different regions?
• How might food systems be adapted to cope with GEC so as to enhance food security?
• What would be the consequences of adaptation options for environmental and socioeconomic conditions?
Fundamental Questions
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To determine strategies to cope with the
impacts of GEC on food systems and to
assess the environmental and socioeconomic
consequences of adaptive responses aimed at
improving food security.
GECAFS Goal
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What isFood Security?
A state or condition when all people, at all times, have
physical and economic access to sufficient, safe, and
nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food
preferences for an active and healthy life.
(definition from the World Food Summit, 1996)
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CropStands
Production Systems
FoodSystems
Farming Systems
Crop Productivity
Food Production
Food Security
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How will GEC affect crop yield?
How will GEC affect farm &
regional production?
How will GEC affect food security?
Ke
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• Relations to soil N and water
• Micronutrients• Stand establishment• Losses to weeds• Mechanistic coupling of pests and diseases
• Simulation of quality
• Linking “sole crop” models• Farm-level databases including management variables
• Inclusion of other crops, livestock & fisheries, etc
• Using model outputs to analyse system performance
• Food Systems and vulnerability concepts
• Regional-level scenarios• Integrated socioeconomic-biophysical models
• Feedbacks of management scenarios to socioeconomic and environmental conditions
Change of research scope from agronomy
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GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE (GEC)
Change in type, frequency & magnitude of
environmental threats
FOOD SYSTEMSECURITY / VULNERABILITY
Exposureto GEC
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GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE (GEC)
Change in type, frequency & magnitude of
environmental threats
FOOD SYSTEMSECURITY / VULNERABILITY
SOCIETAL CHANGE
Change in institutions, resource accessibility,
economic conditions, etc.
Capacity to cope
with &/or recover
from GEC
Exposureto GEC
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I. Conceptual & methodological research on generic topics based on science and policy issues identified in regional projects.
GECAFS Research Approaches
II. Policy-relevant research at regional-level on impacts,
adaptation and feedbacks based on improved conceptual
understanding and methods.
Conditions&
Scenarios
CurrentFood Systems
AdaptedFood Systems
Vulnerability & Impacts Feedbacks
Adaptation
DecisionSupport
• Indo-Gangetic Plain• Caribbean
• Southern Africa• Others?
• Food Systems Concepts• Vulnerability Concepts• Scenario Construction• Decision Support
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Food Systems, to improve understanding of the interactions between food systems and GEC
Vulnerability, to integrate social and natural science concepts of the vulnerability of food systems to GEC
Scenarios, to construct plausible futures of socioeconomic and environmental conditions for food system analyses
Decision Support, to improve dialogue between scientists and policy-makers on the interactions between food security and environment
Research Approaches 1conceptual & methodological research
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Caribbean Indo-Gangetic Plain
Southern Africa
Key Policy IssuesFood security and self-sufficiencyTrade policies and competitivenessExporting quality produce & processed productsPoverty in rural communities
Main GEC IssuesClimate variability & extreme eventsWater availabilityLand degradationSea currents & level
Main GEC Issues Climate variabilityGlacier and snow meltWater availability & qualityNitrogen availability & cyclingGHG emissions
Key Policy IssuesIncreased agric. productionLimiting env. degradationImproved socioecon. conditionsReduced labour migration
Main GEC IssuesClimate variability & ENSOClimate mean valuesWater availability & qualityLand degradationBiodiversity loss
Key Policy IssuesFood security and self-sufficiencyRegional integration and tradeRural infrastructure and market accessDisaster response and “safety nets”
Research Approaches 2conceptual and methodological research integrated
with regional studies
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GECAFS Key Points
• Food systems, not only food production or agriculture
• GEC, not just climate change
• GEC in the context of socioeconomic change, not in isolation
• Management and policy options, not predictions
• Participatory decision making, not just research outputs
• Regional scale, not global or household/plot
• Interdisciplinary, not disciplinary networks