What isGlobal Environmental Change?

Changes in the biogeophysical environment caused or strongly influenced by human activities

Land cover & soils

Atmospheric composition

Climate variability & means

Water availability & quality

For example changes in:

Nitrogen availability & cycling

Biodiversity

Sea currents & salinity

Sea level

Some examples ofhuman activities leading to GEC

Deforestation

Fossil fuel consumption

Urbanisation

Land reclamation

Agricultural intensification

Freshwater extraction

Fisheries overexploitation

Waste production

• How will Global Environmental Change affect the vulnerability of food systems in different regions?

• How might food systems be adapted to cope with GEC so as to enhance food security?

• What would be the consequences of adaptation options for environmental and socioeconomic conditions?

Fundamental Questions

To determine strategies to cope with the

impacts of GEC on food systems and to

assess the environmental and socioeconomic

consequences of adaptive responses aimed at

improving food security.

GECAFS Goal

What isFood Security?

A state or condition when all people, at all times, have

physical and economic access to sufficient, safe, and

nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food

preferences for an active and healthy life.

(definition from the World Food Summit, 1996)

CropStands

Production Systems

FoodSystems

Farming Systems

Crop Productivity

Food Production

Food Security

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How will GEC affect crop yield?

How will GEC affect farm &

regional production?

How will GEC affect food security?

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• Relations to soil N and water

• Micronutrients• Stand establishment• Losses to weeds• Mechanistic coupling of pests and diseases

• Simulation of quality

• Linking “sole crop” models• Farm-level databases including management variables

• Inclusion of other crops, livestock & fisheries, etc

• Using model outputs to analyse system performance

• Food Systems and vulnerability concepts

• Regional-level scenarios• Integrated socioeconomic-biophysical models

• Feedbacks of management scenarios to socioeconomic and environmental conditions

Change of research scope from agronomy

GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE (GEC)

Change in type, frequency & magnitude of

environmental threats

FOOD SYSTEMSECURITY / VULNERABILITY

Exposureto GEC

GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE (GEC)

Change in type, frequency & magnitude of

environmental threats

FOOD SYSTEMSECURITY / VULNERABILITY

SOCIETAL CHANGE

Change in institutions, resource accessibility,

economic conditions, etc.

Capacity to cope

with &/or recover

from GEC

Exposureto GEC

I. Conceptual & methodological research on generic topics based on science and policy issues identified in regional projects.

GECAFS Research Approaches

II. Policy-relevant research at regional-level on impacts,

adaptation and feedbacks based on improved conceptual

understanding and methods.

Conditions&

Scenarios

CurrentFood Systems

AdaptedFood Systems

Vulnerability & Impacts Feedbacks

Adaptation

DecisionSupport

• Indo-Gangetic Plain• Caribbean

• Southern Africa• Others?

• Food Systems Concepts• Vulnerability Concepts• Scenario Construction• Decision Support

Food Systems, to improve understanding of the interactions between food systems and GEC

Vulnerability, to integrate social and natural science concepts of the vulnerability of food systems to GEC

Scenarios, to construct plausible futures of socioeconomic and environmental conditions for food system analyses

Decision Support, to improve dialogue between scientists and policy-makers on the interactions between food security and environment

Research Approaches 1conceptual & methodological research

Caribbean Indo-Gangetic Plain

Southern Africa

Key Policy IssuesFood security and self-sufficiencyTrade policies and competitivenessExporting quality produce & processed productsPoverty in rural communities

Main GEC IssuesClimate variability & extreme eventsWater availabilityLand degradationSea currents & level

Main GEC Issues Climate variabilityGlacier and snow meltWater availability & qualityNitrogen availability & cyclingGHG emissions

Key Policy IssuesIncreased agric. productionLimiting env. degradationImproved socioecon. conditionsReduced labour migration

Main GEC IssuesClimate variability & ENSOClimate mean valuesWater availability & qualityLand degradationBiodiversity loss

Key Policy IssuesFood security and self-sufficiencyRegional integration and tradeRural infrastructure and market accessDisaster response and “safety nets”

Research Approaches 2conceptual and methodological research integrated

with regional studies

GECAFS Key Points

• Food systems, not only food production or agriculture

• GEC, not just climate change

• GEC in the context of socioeconomic change, not in isolation

• Management and policy options, not predictions

• Participatory decision making, not just research outputs

• Regional scale, not global or household/plot

• Interdisciplinary, not disciplinary networks