dr david beeton - international energy agency€¦ · dr david beeton operating agent task ......
TRANSCRIPT
Market deployment of
hybrid & electric vehicles
Dr David Beeton
Operating Agent Task XVIII
IEA Implementing Agreement Hybrid & Electric Vehicles
Technology Portfolio Issues: Smart Cities
Eskom Megawatt Park, Sandton, S.Africa
6th July 2011
Structure of Presentation
1. IEA Implementing Agreement on Hybrid & Electric Vehicles
3. EV Ecosystems: Preparing for Mass Adoption of EVs
2. EVs in a Smart City Context
4. Emerging Challenges in Creating EV Ecosystems
5. A Big Question for EVs in Smart Cities
Implementing Agreement
Hybrid & Electric Vehicles
IA Hybrid & Electric Vehicles
• IEA has 42 different technical collaboration-programmes dealing with a variety
of energy related issues, including hybrid and electric vehicles (IA-HEV).
• IA-HEV is a working group of 15 governments interested in advanced vehicle
technologies and applications of hybrid and electric vehicles
Austria, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, Finland, France, Italy, Netherlands,
Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, United Kingdom, USA
IA-HEV Task Forces (1994-2011) • Information Exchange (Task I)
• Environment Issues of EVs and components (Task II)
• Infrastructure of electric vehicles (Task III)
• Batteries and super capacitors (Task V)
• Hybrid Vehicles (Task VII)
• Deployment Strategies (Task VIII)
• Clean City Vehicles (Task IX)
• Electrochemical Systems (Task X)
• Electric cycles (Task XI)
• Heavy-Duty Hybrid Vehicles (Task XII)
• Fuel Cell Vehicles (Task XIII)
• Market Deployment – Lessons learned (Task XIV)
• Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (Task XV)
• Technology Alternatives for buses (Task XVI)
• BEV system integration and optimization (Task XVII)
• EV Ecosystems (Task XVIII)
International cooperation
Creating EV
ecosystems
Advancing
technology &
manufacturing
Vehicle
trials
Infrastructure
pilots
Public
sector
Private
sector
Removing
barriers
to mass
adoption
Accelerating
early
market growth
Smart Cities
Business Models
Innovation
Skills
Mass Adoption
Immediate Challenges
North East England EV Programme
Smart Cities
For the first time in human history more
people live in cities than in rural areas
Over the next 20 years the urban
population will grow from 3.5 billion to
5.0 billion
The social, environmental and
economic challenges of this
transformation will shape the 21st
century.
Opportunity:
• Improve the lives of citizens
• Limit the impact on the
environment
For the last 100 years the car has shaped the future of cities
Now cities will shape the future of the car
EV Ecosystems
International cooperation
Creating EV
ecosystems
Advancing
technology &
manufacturing
Vehicle
trials
Infrastructure
pilots
Public
sector
Private
sector
Removing
barriers
to mass
adoption
Accelerating
early
market growth
Smart Cities
Business Models
Innovation
Skills
Mass Adoption
Immediate Challenges
North East EV Programme
EV Ecosystems
• ‘Total environments’ to support operation of thousands of vehicles
‘Hard Infrastructure’
e.g. recharging points, smart grids,
buildings, transport systems
‘Soft Infrastructure’
e.g. regulation, business models,
incentives, skills, community
engagement
EV Ecosystems
• Creating conditions for growth to mass market adoption of EVs
Time
Maturity
Necessary conditions
Increasing quality
Critical mass Mature market
Growth?
Vision
Current situation
EV Ecosystems
• What comes after the pilots?
Incentives
Innovation and cost reduction → Vehicles → Recharging infrastructure
Mass market adoption
Infrastructure provision
Energy & parking
Third party services
Mobility services
1st generation investments
2nd generation investments
Capital
Time
Revenue
Task XVIII: EV Ecosystems
Preparing World Cities for Mass Adoption
Lessons learned
Problem solving
Best practice
Web portal
Roadmapping
workshops
20 world cities
and regions
Congresses of cities
and businesses
City Roadmaps
International Roadmap
• Roadmapping workshops in 20 pioneering world cities, assembling experts from
municipalities, regional authorities, governments and industry
• A global community of pioneering cities for policy exchange and problem solving
• International Roadmap will establish a blueprint for development of EV Ecosystems
100 big ideas
Case studies
Future vision
Outputs: High Level City Roadmap
Outputs: High Level City Roadmap
Outputs: ‘Scenario Roadmaps’ Developing a sustainable business model for EV recharging
Today + 2 years
Market tren
ds an
d d
riversP
rod
ucts/ services/ ap
plicatio
ns
Tech
no
log
ies/ capab
ilities
Vision+ 5 years + 10 years
Subscription
payment
What are other
countries doing?
Decision Point
March 2013
Year 2 – 10
Not enough
vehicles to sustain
business model
Government drivers
Plugged in Places
Nissan/ Regional
Economy
Vested Interest
Require integrated
EV strategies
EV = zero emission
Destroys previous
work – issue with
managing
commuter travel
Someone
Something
Now
Inducement for
public charging!
Park and ride
Not many cars –
how do we decide?Charge for parking
Number of vehicles
Valley of death
Capital funding runs
out
Sell data
No revenue
Charge for:
- parking
- energy
Charge for other
things
No need for
infrastructure
No further local
authority estate
growth
Vision: Viable and self-
sustainable business
model for EV recharging
infrastructure – until no
longer required
Back office
provided by a
commercial entity
No back office
Power company
owns posts (buys
posts). Revenue
from ground rent
No back office
Power company
rents posts
New partnership:
private state and
public estate
merger
Commuter parking
sales targets (i.e.
post rented for a
year)
Options?
Private expansion
of post estate
Planning legislation
to expand post
estate
Plugged in Places
dies
No network
No interoperabilityN
cars?
10 years
A BRevenue
Ins??? costs
Vehicle
numbers
30 pence/ ???
Key
Enabler
Opportunity
Barrier
Risk
Option
Developing a sustainable business model for EV recharging
Today + 2 years
Market tren
ds an
d d
riversP
rod
ucts/ services/ ap
plicatio
ns
Tech
no
log
ies/ capab
ilities
Vision+ 5 years + 10 years
Subscription
payment
What are other
countries doing?
Decision Point
March 2013
Year 2 – 10
Not enough
vehicles to sustain
business model
Government drivers
Plugged in Places
Nissan/ Regional
Economy
Vested Interest
Require integrated
EV strategies
EV = zero emission
Destroys previous
work – issue with
managing
commuter travel
Someone
Something
Now
Inducement for
public charging!
Park and ride
Not many cars –
how do we decide?Charge for parking
Number of vehicles
Valley of death
Capital funding runs
out
Sell data
No revenue
Charge for:
- parking
- energy
Charge for other
things
No need for
infrastructure
No further local
authority estate
growth
Vision: Viable and self-
sustainable business
model for EV recharging
infrastructure – until no
longer required
Back office
provided by a
commercial entity
No back office
Power company
owns posts (buys
posts). Revenue
from ground rent
No back office
Power company
rents posts
New partnership:
private state and
public estate
merger
Commuter parking
sales targets (i.e.
post rented for a
year)
Options?
Private expansion
of post estate
Planning legislation
to expand post
estate
Plugged in Places
dies
No network
No interoperabilityN
cars?
10 years
A BRevenue
Ins??? costs
Vehicle
numbers
30 pence/ ???
Key
Enabler
Opportunity
Barrier
Risk
Option
Hydrogen and/or EV
Today + 1 years
Market tren
ds an
d d
riversP
rod
ucts/ services/ ap
plicatio
ns
Tech
no
log
ies/ capab
ilitiesR
esou
rces
Vision+ 5 years + 10 years
NAIGT
roadmap
Battery
powered EV
Companies
manufacture
parts
RangePower/ Energy
density
Ancilliaries
- Heating
- Lighting
- Ents
“HyPower”
direct
injections
Hydrogen
distribution
H2 from
renewables
Hydrogen
storageHydrogen
“clean up”
Plasma
reforming
(QinwtiQ)
Amonia as H2
source
Use
subsystem
to develop
Vision: Economic
development in North
East England i.e.
production in region
Fuel cellsHydrogen
internal
combustion
engine
Hydrogen
(brown)
Nissan in
region
Wessington
Cryogenics
tanks
Inova on board
hydrogen
generation
Renew Tech
fuel cells
Dominick
Hunter/ Parker
Fuel Cells
North East
Universities
North East
England
existing
expertise
HICE Gen
Sets
Fuel cells
Chemical H2
generation
Consumer Interface and Nurturing the Market
Today + 5 years
Market tren
ds an
d d
riversP
rod
ucts/ services/ ap
plicatio
ns
Tech
no
log
ies/ capab
ilities
Vision+ 10 years + 20-30 years
Vision: Electric vehicles
are commonplace in the
minds of the public
G-Whiz
Smart ED
(iMiev)
Car dealers lack
knowledge of new
technologies
Benefits of low
driving costs
Socially innovative
organisationsIdentify future
generation of
buyers
Engage cultural
icons
Quality premium
tag
Aspirational
technology
Air quality benefits
Transport
governance
Enable future
generationCarbon markets
Cost of electricity
generation
Increasing
emphasis on
demand reduction
Plug-in hybrids
E-mobility
integrated with
lifestyle activities
e.g. easyJet,
Premier Inn
Visible innovationUltra-low
maintenance
Increasing battery
capacity
Ease of use of
technology
Intelligent transport
systems
Demonstration of
new charging
systems
Dealers need to
work it!
Fuel cell extended
range vehicles
Demonstrations/
simulations/
visualisations
Demonstration
projects for each
market segment
Today + 2 years
Market tren
ds an
d d
riversP
rod
ucts/ services/ ap
plicatio
ns
Tech
no
log
ies/ capab
ilitiesR
esou
rces
Vision+ 5 years + 10 years
DESfire EV
one media
Real time
comms
MIFARE DESfire
ONE
card
Central
Interoperability
Register (Dutch
Model)
Decision
- North UK?
- OLEV?
- Industry?
- Energy?
ONE
card
UK Central
Interoperability
Register
CRM
Department for
Transport?
Single media EV
Media
convergence:
transport + EV Vision: 2020-2025Single
UK/ EU interoperable
system for EV, transport,
banks and payment
Media
convergence:
transport + EV
with payments
(bank)
„Charge Your
Car‟ with one
charge point
supplier
Database
technology
others
Oracle/ SQL
Comms
technology
SOAP, FTP,
HTTPPure IT
„Charge Your
Car‟
Independent
server
Open Charge
Point Protocol
„Charge Your
Car‟ with all
charge point
suppliers
Group (I)
Payment back
office missing
Tech (MySQL)
Oracle/ SAP
OJEU
procurement?
Partner
payment
systemBespoke
iT
company
Outsourced
back office
Decision
- North UK?
- OLEV?
- Industry?
- Energy?
ONE 2nd
generation
back office
UK back
office
Single back
office EV
Back office
convergence:
transport + EV
Back office
convergence:
transport + EV
with payments
Developing a sustainable business model
Hydrogen and EV
Consumer interface: nurturing the market
Second generation back office solutions
World EV Cities Web Portal
• Description: Support and sharing site for 20-40 regional deployment efforts around
world
• Partners: Managed by PH&EV Center, UC Davis with several mirrored partners
(IEA,EVI)
• Share regional deployment goals
• Report regional progress
• Community of expert problem solvers
Founding Partners
World Cities Pioneering EV Ecosystems
Join Us!
Emerging Challenges
Business
opportunity Functionality
Volume opportunity
and data
Revenue collection
and data
Vehicles Core and value-
added services
Co-marketing Co-marketing
Interoperability Interoperability
Integration
Integrated
service
provision
Mobility
services
Recharging
services
Energy,
parking &
third-party
services
Future Business Models
Understanding Market Dynamics and
Necessary Social Change
Time
Product
performance
attributes ICE vehicles
Electric
vehicles
High-end customer
requirements
Low-end customer
requirements
L1
L2
L3
L4
t4 t3 t2 t1
Unlocking Opportunities Beyond
Recharging Batteries
BIG question for smart cities
Arterial Management
Crash Prevention &
Safety
Commercial Vehicle Ops
Electronic Payment & Pricing
Emergency Management
Highway Management
Information Management
Intelligent Vehicles
Road Weather
Management
Roadway Operations & Maintenance
Traffic Incident Management
Transit Management
Traveler Information
Transportation Management
Center
Electric Vehicle Charging
Is EV Just Another Silo?
Or a
potential
source of
unifying
intelligence?
Thank You
For more information please contact:
Dr David Beeton
Operating Agent Task XVIII
IEA Implementing Agreement Hybrid & Electric Vehicles
Email: [email protected]